By Nicolás Cabra-Ruiz, Sandra V. Rozo, María Micaela Sviatschi

How does forced displacement shape development in origin countries? This article examines the case of Venezuela, where nearly eight million people have been forcibly displaced. To do this, it compares municipalities with varying shares of foreign-born populations before and after international oil price shocks accelerated forced displacement between 2014 and 2019. The findings show that municipalities with larger foreign-born populations in 1990, which also exhibited greater out-migration from Venezuela after 2014, experienced lower economic development and higher inequality. The paper highlights a new mechanism through which forced displacement facilitates the perpetuation of autocratic rule and hinders development: by weakening political opposition and enabling the growth of organized crime and illicit income sources. Using novel election data, the article finds that areas affected by mass forced displacement experienced lower voter turnout and opposition support, limiting political and social reforms. These areas also witnessed growth in organized crime and foreign non-state drug and human trafficking, which diminished incentives for economic change.

Washington, DC: World Bank, Development Research Group, Development Economics , 2025. 102p.

By European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA), Eurostat and European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE) 

  This report presents, for the first time, selected key results of the EU gender-based violence survey based on data from all 27 Member States. Across the EU-27, 114 023 women were interviewed about their experiences. The report focuses on the prevalence of various forms of violence against women in the EU. The EU gender-based violence survey also collected specific data about women’s experiences of violence, including on the consequences of violence and contacts with different services that provide assistance to victims, as survivors of violence. Data on both the prevalence of violence and the consequences of violence will be analysed in detail in the survey report that Eurostat, FRA and EIGE will publish in 2025. In this report, the results are presented in four chapters, starting with the overall prevalence of physical violence or threats and/or sexual violence by any perpetrator. This is followed by two chapters that focus on violence perpetrated by women’s intimate partners and by other people (non-partners). The fourth chapter examines women’s experiences of sexual harassment at work. Finally, the report includes an annex that summarises the survey data collection methodology  

 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg  2024. 48p.

By Anita Franklin, Louise Bradley, Jo Greenaway, Sarah Goff, Sarah Atkins and Lucy Rylatt

Children and young people with SEND have specific vulnerabilities due to communication, learning or neurodivergent needs which are often unmet by current service structures. These needs are often not recognised or well understood by multi agency services who rarely receive specific training in communicating or working with this group of children. Many of these children and young people have not had their needs formally diagnosed, and many are on long waiting lists for diagnosis and assessments. This group of children and young people often experience; higher rates of poverty, social and school exclusion, isolation, bullying and discrimination. They are also over-represented in the care system and face particular challenges when housed in unregulated accommodation. This is coupled with often high levels of unmet needs and generally a lack of empowerment and agency. All indicators which correlate to increased risk of exploitation.

This qualitative exploratory study sought to provide evidence to identify and address gaps in safeguarding policy, guidance and legal frameworks in relation to specific risks of modern slavery for children and young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) in England and Wales (aged up to 25 years). Furthermore, the study sought to explore whether policies and guidance provide the mechanisms for appropriate strategic planning and practical responses to modern slavery for this group of children and young people.

Key findings

1. Despite children and young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)/additional learning needs being at increased risk of exploitation and trafficking, there is inadequate attention to the specific needs of young people with SEND in national safeguarding or modern slavery policy.

2. A lack of robust training may mean that practitioners may not be aware of the impact and interrelation between SEND and modern slavery.

3. There is a lack of data collection and a lack of understanding of modern slavery and SEND, impacting on opportunities for prevention and early identification, or to understand the scale and nature of how SEND and modern slavery interact.

4. There are missed opportunities for early intervention and disrupting patterns of exploitation, for example when responding to reports from parents of missing episodes for young people with SEND.

5. Engagement with education services is one of the most significant factors in keeping children with SEND safe from exploitation. Practitioners and parents were very clear that the most significant factor in keeping children and young people safe from modern slavery was their engagement within an education system that met their SEND needs.

6. Responding well and responding early requires parents’ concerns being listened to, with training and multi-agency support being in place.

Recommendations

1. The Department for Education should update the Safeguarding Disabled Children and Young People Guidance

2. Implementation of Safeguarding Children with SEND champions.

3. The UK government should improve information sharing and data collection that helps agencies understand prevalence and nature of SEND on children and young adults’ safeguarding needs

4. The Home Office and DfE should jointly commission and roll out national multi-agency mandatory training across all services to address lack of understanding of modern slavery and SEND amongst frontline workers and managers across statutory and voluntary sectors.

5. The Department for Education should support the earlier identification of SEND and support to meet needs through multi-agency working.

6. The Department for Education should lead multi-agency work to prevent school breakdowns and establish accountable safeguarding processes for young people with SEND.

7. The Home Office and Department for Education should support local safeguarding partnerships to work with parents as a resource for protection and to fund and produce resources to support parents.

8. Local Safeguarding Partnerships should undertake an urgent review of how risk is assessed in children and young people with SEND.

9. The Department for Education and the Home Office should update guidance and develop training to support improved practice concerning missing children and young people with SEND.

10. Local Authorities should reduce distant out of authority placements and their breakdown as a response to exploitation and trafficking.

11. All agencies should improve professional understanding of communication and behaviours of children and young people with SEND.

London; Modern Slavery and Human Rights Policy and Evidence Centre,  2024. 56p.

By Mar Negreiro  

Online child sexual abuse materials (CSAM) and grooming practices (manipulation aimed at exploiting and abusing people), now increasingly targeting younger children, have been proliferating at an alarming rate. In 2023, the more than 36.2 million reports of suspected online child sexual abuse represented a historical peak.Reports of groomingrose by more than 300% between 2021 and 2023. Most activities detected were hosted in Europe. In response to this situation, on 11 May 2022 the European Commission adopted a proposal for long-term rules to prevent and combat child abuse. The Commission proposal would require interpersonal communication services, such as webmail messaging services and internet telephony, as well as others, to proactively detect online CSAM materials and activities involving child grooming. However, this poses many concerns regarding privacy, security and law enforcement investigations. The proposal also provides for the establishment of an EU centre to support the implementation and supervision of the new rules. In the European Parliament,the file has been assigned to the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs (LIBE).Parliament adopted the LIBEreport at first reading on 22 November 2023, along with the committee recommendation to enter into interinstitutional negotiations. The Council is still working on its common position under the Hungarian Presidency, where a blocking minority of countries persists.  

Luxembourg: EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service, 2024. 12p.

By E. Lopez

With the holiday season upon us, shopping at store locations throughout the nation will increase. Bigger crowds are a welcome sight for retailers, but they also amplify concerns about shoplifting and the safety of the shopping experience for consumers and employees alike.

This report builds on a previous Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) shoplifting report and CCJ’s ongoing crime trends reports by exploring recent trends in shoplifting for the nation’s three largest cities—Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. It also examines seasonal trends for a sample of 23 cities and takes a closer look at shoplifting data available from the FBI.

Key Takeaways

Data collected through the fall of 2024 for Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York suggest that shoplifting levels remain higher than pre-2020 rates. Chicago, in particular, experienced notably elevated rates of reported shoplifting through the first 10 months of this year. In 2023, rates were 10% lower in Chicago, 87% higher in Los Angeles, and 55% higher in New York than in 2019.

Over the past several years, shoplifting rates were higher in November and December than they were during earlier months of the year, coinciding with increased in-person retail activity. Because shoplifting rates in a 23-city sample for the first half of 2024 are higher than in 2023, it is likely that the reported shoplifting rate for the full year will rise from 2023 to 2024.

Two national sources of law enforcement data on reported shoplifting—both available from the FBI—show different trends. Statistics from the Summary Reporting System (SRS) suggest that reported shoplifting in 2023 was the same level as in 2019. However, rates from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), show that shoplifting was 93% higher in 2023 than it was in 2019.

It is unclear why there is a sizable difference between these two sources. One possibility is that law enforcement agencies recently added to the group providing data through NIBRS reported disproportionally higher levels of shoplifting, even after adjusting for an increase in population coverage. Clear guidance from the FBI on the limitations of the data and the implications of using certain sources of FBI crime data is needed

Washington, DC: Council on Criminal Justice. 2024. 9p.

By B. Boxerman and K. Cundiff

This report focuses on reported shoplifting in Chicago, IL, and Los Angeles, CA, from 2018 through 2023. It uses incident location data to examine reported shoplifting prevalence and concentration in both cities and how these have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also examines how patterns in reported shoplifting may be related to the concentration of retail establishments. The pandemic is central to this analysis because property crime patterns, especially for larceny and shoplifting, are sensitive to changes in patterns of activity, such as the major shifts in public life that occurred under stay-at-home orders in response to the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This report is focused on the periods directly before, during, and after the pandemic to lend context to the increased interest and attention related to shoplifting at the national level.

Key Takeaways

In Chicago, the year-end rate of reported shoplifting was 11.6% lower for 2023 than it was for 2018. In Los Angeles, the rate for 2023 was 77% higher than it was for 2018.

Prior to the pandemic, the shoplifting rate in Los Angeles was less than half that of Chicago. By the end of 2023, the difference between the two cities had narrowed and the Los Angeles rate was 17.7% lower than that of Chicago.

In Chicago, the top 5% of all reported shoplifting locations by address had 68.5% of all reported shoplifting from 2018 to 2023. In Los Angeles, the top 5% of addresses had 62.8% of all reported shoplifting during this period.

Shoplifting patterns between the cities differed greatly. Chicago shoplifting clustered in two geographically close areas, while shoplifting in Los Angeles was distributed across multiple smaller areas that were less concentrated than in Chicago.

In Chicago, areas with substantial concentrations of retail outlets did not consistently experience concentrated amounts of shoplifting. In Los Angeles, however, there was considerable overlap between retail and shoplifting clusters.

Both cities saw large drops in reported shoplifting in 2020, likely due to store closures at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. For both cities, in 2020 and 2021, shoplifting was less prevalent and concentrated in fewer areas.

Portions of both cities that were not high-shoplifting areas before and during the pandemic began to experience increases in shoplifting after the pandemic (2022 and 2023).

Shoplifting in both cities was often highly concentrated in places with high concentrations of other crimes, such as other types of theft and violent offense

Washington DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2024.

By Hanna-Mari Lahtinen , Kirsi Honkalampi, Tegan Insoll, Juha Nurmi, et al.

The dark web has become a more prevalent platform for the distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM). Most CSAM users remain undetected by law enforcement, and little is known about the population not convicted.ObjectiveThe aim of the study was to contribute to the research on CSAM users by investigating the differences between CSAM users who self-report having been charged for sexual offenses against a child or an adult and those who self-report not having been charged of such offenses.Participants and settingWe analyzed anonymous survey data from 2384 respondents who sought CSAM on the dark web. Most of the respondents were young males (18–34-year-olds) searching for material depicting girls. The sample was divided into three groups: 1) those who admitted to having been charged for sexual offenses against children (CS offenders, n = 474); 2) those who admitted to having been charged for sexual offenses against adults (AS offenders, n = 620); and 3) those who admitted to no charges (NC group, n = 1290).MethodsWe used multinomial logistic regression analysis to analyze differences in self-reported behavior and motivation to access CSAM between the three groups.ResultsThose who had a previous history of violent offenses, had groomed children online, had physical contact with children, and searched for material depicting infants and toddlers were significantly more likely to belong to the CS or AS offenders group.ConclusionsWe found significant differences between the groups in their individual, motivational, and behavioral characteristics that have important implications for investigating sexual crimes and assessing and treating sexual offenders.

Unpublished report, 2024. 32p.

By Randi Hjalmarsson, Stephen Machin, Paolo Pinotti

The economics of crime has emerged as a critical field over the past 30 years, with economists increasingly exploring the causes and consequences of criminal behavior. This paper surveys key contributions and developments from labor economists, who investigate the (often two-way) intersection of crime with labor market factors, such as education, wages, and unemployment. The paper underscores the importance of understanding criminal decision-making in economic analysis through the lens of opportunity costs and labor market conditions. Methodological advancements, particularly those addressing causation, have propelled the field forward, enabling more accurate conclusions to be drawn for policy recommendations. The paper also explores the role of social policies and international contexts, emphasizing the need for evidence-based reforms to effectively reduce crime. This comprehensive review underscores the transformative impact of economics on crime research and its potential to influence real-world policies.

IZA DP No. 17423 Bonn: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics , 2024. 66p.

By Linda Jepkoech Kimaru ,Cheng Cheng Hu, Sudha Nagalingam, Priscilla Magrath, Elizabeth Connick, Kacey Ernst, and John Ehir

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is crucial for achieving and maintaining viral suppression in people living with HIV (PLWH). While individual factors affecting HIV viral suppression have been extensively studied, there is less attention on community-level factors, specifically perceived neighborhood disorder. This study aims to assess the relationship between perceived neighborhood disorder and achieving virologic suppression among people living with HIV. One hundred and eighty-eight PLWH 18 years of age and older from two HIV clinics completed a cross-sectional study. We assessed perceptions of neighborhood disorder, ART self-efficacy, social support, alcohol and drug use, depression, HIV stigma, provider-patient relationship, demographics, and length at the zip code. HIV viral loads were obtained from the clinical record. The analysis involved the use of Fisher’s Exact test, Spearman’s Rank test, Wilcoxon rank sum test, and Firth logistic regression. All analyses were conducted using STATA 17. Most participants were male (79%), white (62%), and identified as non-Hispanic (66%). Individuals with no perceived neighborhood disorder had median scores of 10 for integration and perseverance in ART self-efficacy. Those with high perceived disorder displayed decreased scores of 8.4 and 8.3 for integration and perseverance respectively. Both integration and perseverance showed statistically significant negative correlations with perceived neighborhood disorder, (Spearman’s rho -0.2966; p<0.000 and -0.2387; p = 0.0010 respectively). Individuals with virologic suppression (n = 167) reported significantly lower perceived neighborhood disorder scores (median = 0.9 [IQR: 0.2–2.0]) compared to those without virologic suppression (n = 10, median = 3.2 [IQR: 2.4–4], p = 0.0012). The study highlights a notable correlation between perceived neighborhood disorder, ART adherence self-efficacy, and virologic suppression. This indicates that improving HIV treatment outcomes needs to extend beyond individual-level factors and include strategies to address neighborhood-level conditions. Public health policies and programs should consider the broader social and environmental contexts in which people living with HIV reside.

PLOS Glob Public Health, 2024, 13p.

By Stewart Boiteux & Adam Teperski

To examine the operation of the NSW Domestic Violence Electronic Monitoring (DVEM) program, and to estimate the association between DVEM program participation and recidivism. METHOD Entropy balancing was used to match 226 DVEM participants on parole with 768 parolees who met observed program eligibility conditions but did not participate in the program. Using multivariate probit regression, four recidivism outcomes were compared between offenders participating in DVEM and the matched offender sample, including the probability of any reoffending, domestic violence reoffending, Apprehended Domestic Violence Order breaches, and the probability that an offender on a community order was imprisoned for a new offence or breach of the conditions of their order. RESULTS Offenders participating in DVEM were around 7 percentage points (p.p.) less likely to return to custody within a year. DVEM participants were also significantly less likely to reoffend with any offence (7.1 p.p.), a domestic violence offence (10.5 p.p.), and an ADVO breach (8.7 p.p.). While the study assessed many factors related to both DVEM placement and reoffending, it is unable to exclude the possibility that unobserved variables and/or factors related to participation in DVEM may be influencing the results. CONCLUSION DVEM participation is associated with significant reductions in the probability that an offender reoffends and/or is imprisoned within a year of release.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 255). Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. 2023. 30p.

By  Leanne Lester, Zoe Callis and Paul Flatau

 As more data is being collected by Zonta House, the importance of linking the data, ensuring measurement tools are valid and reliable, and that all program outcomes are measurable has become paramount. This process has enabled UWA to assess the impact and effectiveness of Zonta House programs. Linking of data sources The linking of Penelope and SHIP data enabled a complete evaluation of Zonta House programs. It is recommended that processes be developed to ensure the accuracy of data entry into both Penelope and SHIP systems. As the linking is done through birth dates and Statistical Linkage Keys, it is imperative that birth dates and client names are entered correctly into both systems. Mapping program logic to available data By mapping the program logic to available data we were able to ascertain that all outcomes were measurable using both internal (Penelope) and external (SHIP and Department of Communities) hosted data sources. Measuring program logic outcomes The results of the data analysis show Zonta House are performing well and achieving their outcomes in the crisis and transitional accommodation programs, Recovery Support, Outreach Support, Positive Pathways, Future Employment Connections, and Positive Pathways programs. Understanding a woman’s journey through Zonta House By mapping the flow of a woman’s journey through Zonta House we were able to determine common pathways of program engagement, and pathways of engagement which were more likely to lead to a woman’s exit from Zonta House. It is recommended that Zonta House encourage engagement with programs such as Safer Pathways, Recovery Support, Positive Pathways and Outreach Support programs as soon as possible within a woman’s journey through Zonta House. Reliability and validity of the Life Matrix In this study we explored the potential value for the Life Matrix to be used as a routine measure at Zonta House. Of particular interest was whether the Life Matrix was reliable and valid. Five domains of the Life Matrix (emotional wellbeing; social wellbeing; community and cultural involvement; mental health; and physical health) showed a reliable underlying theme of wellbeing and contribute to the Revised Total Life Matrix Score. Validity was tested against the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS 21), with significant correlations in the expected direction showing convergence between the two instruments. Clients in the moderate/severe/ extremely severe band had significantly lower Revised Total Life Matrix Scores than those in the normal and mild bands, also demonstrating convergence. The Life Matrix domains are significantly correlated with SHIP variables. The Life Matrix is a reliable and valid tool and is recommended for use. Optimisation of visualisation Many limitations were found when trying to extract and display data from the Penelope system. To enable effective visualisation of data, it is recommended that work is done directly with the developers of Penelope to access and customise visualisations  

Perth: Centre for Social Impact The University of Western Australia 2021. 57p.

By Leanne Lester, Ami Seivwright, Paul Flatau, Emma Crane, and Kiara Minto

This report presents an analysis of client outcomes with a view to understanding the impact of Zonta House and provides a statistical analysis of the validity and reliability of the Life Matrix tool developed and used by Zonta House to measure clients’ wellbeing at intake and exit.

As with many community agencies, Zonta House manages a number of programs and uses different platforms to store its data. As with other agencies funded to undertake Specialist Homelessness Services (SHS) programs (which are jointly funded by the Commonwealth and State/Territory governments), Zonta House utilises the Specialist Homelessness Information Platform (SHIP) to capture data. At the same time, Zonta House captures client outcomes information on SHS clients using the popular Penelope client management platform, which also is the platform for storing client service and outcomes across a myriad of other programs designed to provide a holistic service response to the needs of women and children experiencing family and domestic violence. This data capture includes Zonta House’s innovative Life Matrix client outcomes approach.

After extracting and cleaning the data, CSI UWA undertook reliability and validity testing of the Life Matrix tool used by Zonta House as a case management and outcomes measurement tool.

Perth: Centre for Social Impact, University of Western Australia, 2021, 44p.

By Gemma Hamilton, Dirkje Gerryts, Brianna Chesser

The Alexis Family Violence Response Model (Alexis-FVRM) is a coordinated police and social services response to recidivist family violence in Victoria. Following the success of the pilot program, the Alexis-FVRM was expanded to include multiple regions in the South-Eastern metropolitan corridor of Melbourne and is currently active across multiple police divisions.

The evaluation aimed to explore the effectiveness of the Alexis-FVRM since the rollout to other police divisions across Victoria. It also sought to provide an overview of the type of support provided by the Alexis-FVRM, and an exploration of engagement rates and modes of engaging victim-survivors and respondents.

Overall, the Alexis-FVRM provided a range of support to a diverse pool of respondents and victim-survivors in several police divisions across Victoria. The evaluation results are largely positive regarding the efficacy of the Alexis-FVRM. The evaluation results indicate that the Alexis-FVRM helped to reduce the risk of family violence for many of the respondents and affected family members.

Key findings

78% of victim-survivor participants reported that the Alexis-FVRM helped to reduce family violence in their lives.

The risk levels for respondents significantly reduced following Alexis-FVRM intervention. 66% had lower risk levels at case closure compared to their initial risk ratings.

Alexis-FVRM practitioners reported successful contact with respondents in 83% of cases, with assertive outreach used in 85% of cases.

For over a third of respondents (36%), their case was closed because their needs had been met by the Alexis-FVRM.

Melbourne: RMIT University 2025. 26p.

By The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability

Violence against, and abuse, neglect and exploitation of, people with disability in Australia occur in multiple forms and affect almost every aspect of many people’s lives. This volume of our Final report provides an account of the nature and extent of the violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation people with disability experience in different settings and contexts and across their different life stages. It sets out what occurs in people’s homes and other residences, at school, at work, while socialising, when going about everyday life and when engaging with services and supports. It examines violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation perpetrated by individuals and resulting from systemic and structural barriers, practices and failures. It illustrates how this can alter the life trajectories of people with disability and affec

Key points Violence and abuse • Across all age groups, a greater proportion of people with disability experience violence than people without disability. People with disability also experience violence more frequently. • Rates of violence are particularly high for: ◦ women with psychological or intellectual disability ◦ First Nations women with disability ◦ young women with disability. • More than half of people with disability aged 18 to 64 (55 per cent) have been physically or sexually abused since age 15 compared with 38 per cent of adults without disability in that age group. • People with disability who experience violence are more likely to know the perpetrator than people without disability who experience violence (81 per cent compared with 60 per cent). They are more likely to experience violence in all relationships, including with intimate partners, family members, friends and co-workers. • Forty-six percent of people with disability have been subjected to violence by a stranger. Neglect • Neglect of people with disability occurs in multiple forms. It includes deprivation of basic necessities of life; disability-specific forms of neglect, such as a failure to provide assistance with daily activities; and being excluded from quality settings and services, including education and health care. It includes a failure to provide an environment in which an individual can thrive, and being denied the right to develop personal relationships, friendships or engage in community activities. • Neglect also occurs through failures to prevent the risk of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation. • Data on neglect of people with disability is limited. Exploitation • People with disability have shared experiences of financial and sexual exploitation by other individuals. Exploitation also occurs through ‘capturing’ of a person’s NDIS services and through payment of very low wages. Data on exploitation is also limited. Practices that deny or diminish autonomy, health and wellbeing • People with disability are disproportionately subjected to practices that deny them their autonomy and can have adverse impacts on their health and wellbeing. These include restrictive practices, such as being physically and chemically restrained; guardianship and administration; and indefinite detention. Segregated environments • Some people with disability have no choice but to live, attend school, work or socialise in completely segregated environments. Forced segregation and limiting people’s access to the community are forms of abuse and neglect.1 Intersecting experiences • Individuals and groups of people with disability experience intersecting forms of discrimination and disadvantage. This includes First Nations, culturally and linguistically diverse, and LGBTIQA+ people with disability. Life outcomes • People’s life trajectories and life outcomes can be profoundly influenced by violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation. ◦ An estimated 400 deaths each year of people with intellectual disability aged 20 and above are considered potentially avoidable. ◦ Nearly half (47 per cent) of working-age people with disability are not in the labour force, a rate that has not substantially changed in 25 years. Costs of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation • In addition to the high personal cost to people with disability, violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation have a significant cost to Australian society more broadly. In total, this is estimated to be at least $46 billion annually.

Sydney: The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability 2023. 312p.

By Don Weatherburn, Michael Farrell, Wai-Yin Wan, Sara Rahman

Background: Very few studies have examined the criminal careers of drug traffickers. Our aim in this study was to determine (a) the percentage of drug traffickers who cease involvement in crime following their first conviction for drug trafficking, (b) the factors that affect the likelihood and speed of re-offending among drug traffickers, (c) the factors that affect the rate of reoffending among drug traffickers and (d) the scale of drug trafficker involvement in crimes other than drug trafficking.

Methods: We characterize the criminal careers of a sample of 30,020 cases of offenders convicted of drug trafficking in New South Wales (NSW), Australia over the 29-year period between 2000 and 2023, focussing on how drug charge, trafficker type, and drug and alcohol use affect the risk and frequency of offending. We use a combination of descriptive statistics, cure fraction regression and negative binomial regression. Our controls in the regression analyses consist of age, age of first conviction and number of prior convictions.

Results: The 'cure' rate among males aged 30-39 who were first convicted between 19 and 35 years of age, whose principal offence is trafficking in a non-commercial quantity of heroin, who have three prior convictions and who score 'moderate' in terms of the LSI-R drug/alcohol scale is 31 per cent. The instantaneous risk of re-offending among ATS, heroin, cannabis and ecstasy traffickers ranges between 62 and 82 per cent higher than among cocaine traffickers. Convicted drug traffickers commit a wide variety of offences but only a small proportion are convicted of drug offences before or after their first conviction for drug trafficking.

Conclusions: The present study raises two important questions for future research. The first concerns whether those involved in drug trafficking in Australia rely on it as a primary source of income or whether it is just one of several income-generating criminal activities they switch between in the course of a criminal career. The second question is why there are such marked differences in the risk, speed and frequency of offending among traffickers of different drugs.

International Journal of Drug Policy; 2024, 10p.

By Nicolas Lien and Gabriel Feltran

International cocaine trafficking from South America has increased significantly over the past decade. Based on mixed-methods research, we hypothesize that this change has been driven primarily by the globalization of its logistics, which has led to relevant technical and political changes along the value chain. Today’s global criminal logistics connect a wider variety of producers and retailers, ensuring a market without monopoly and monopsony, although very few transnational criminal groups control the center of the value chain. Their cooperation results in a virtuous circle for illicit accumulation, in which the constant improvement in productivity in South America also leads to an increase in consumer demand in Europe and, more recently, in Africa, Asia, and Oceania. We used a mixed-methods approach to relationally analyze coherent changes in the cocaine value chain in Latin American, African, and European countries. 

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 7(1): pp. 20–34

By Oscar Contreras Velasco

This paper builds on social network analysis and structural balance theory to analyze, with a novel approach, some of the unintended consequences of Mexico’s kingpin strategy on the network of criminal organizations. I use data on violent conflicts between Mexico’s criminal organizations, between 2004 and 2020, from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and a combination of statistics, social network analysis, GIS, and archival methods to understand the patterns and geography of violent conflicts and alliances before and after the war on drugs. The goal of this paper is threefold: first, to show that the kingpin strategy is associated with the fragmentation of criminal organizations in Mexico; second, to show that criminal organizations developed a set of structurally balanced arrangements before the government waged a war against them and that the kingpin strategy disrupted such arrangements, which led to an increase in the number of violent conflicts; third, I will argue that the fragmentation of criminal organizations also produced a process of clustering of violence, where sets of organizations started fighting each other in specific regions of the country, increasing the levels of violence in those geographical spaces.

Trends Organ Crim (2023), 25p.

By Lene Guercke

This Open Access book explores an issue that has received little attention in human rights research: organised criminal groups (OCGs) as perpetrators of human rights violations, especially disappearances. It takes an interdisciplinary approach, combining doctrinal legal research with a qualitative study on present-day disappearances in Mexico. Disappearances are a complex human rights violation that impacts not only the disappeared person but also their relatives, who are left in a limbo of uncertainty about their loved one’s fate. Originally part of state-led repression, today disappearances occur in varied contexts, often involving OCGs and other non-state actors. However, disappearances committed by non-state actors are not human rights violations under International Human Rights Law (IHRL), thereby potentially leaving a gap in the legal protection of victims. The book first analyses state obligations and case law involving state responsibility for human rights violations committed by non-state actors and applies the analysis to OCGs. This ‘internal’ legal perspective is complemented by an ‘external’ study based on interviews with human rights practitioners working on disappearances in Mexico, which often involve OCGs. The qualitative study offers a unique perspective on human rights protection ‘in reality’.

The book adds to scholarship on non-state actors and disappearances, and to incipient international legal scholarship on the issue of organised crime and international law. Moreover, the study on Mexico provides a richer understanding of challenges faced by practitioners ‘on the ground’ where OCGs commit human rights violations alongside, or in collusion with, state forces and against the backdrop of an overall failure of the state. The book may be of interest to a diverse audience, including legal scholars and practitioners, human rights scholars in fields such as political science, international relations, or socio-legal studies, as well as funders supporting the work of NGOs in Mexico and similar contexts, and NGOs themselves.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2025, 339p.

Edited by Simone Baglioni and Francesca Calo

This book explores the labour market integration of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers across seven European countries: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Switzerland and the UK. Using empirical data from the Horizon2020 SIRIUS Project, it investigates how legal, political, social and personal circumstances combine to determine the work trajectory for migrants who choose Europe as their home.

Bristol, UK: Policy Press, 2023, 175p.

By Measures for Justice

South Dakota is currently in a dispute about legalized marijuana use for recreational and medicinal purposes. In this context, it’s worth considering how the state handles criminal cases involving drug and DUI offenses. Measures for Justice (MFJ) recently published county-level criminal justice data for the state of South Dakota that span 2009–2017. A review of our findings suggests that relative to other offenses, South Dakota counties pursue harsher responses to court cases in which the most serious offense was related to drug possession/distribution or driving under the influence (DUI). The pattern can be seen at multiple points in case processing. This report explores these disparate findings using three Measures: dismissal rates, time to disposition, amount of fees and fines. Year by year, we have found that drug and DUI cases (1) are dismissed at a lower rate in most counties, (2) take longer, on average, to dispose of than other case types, and (3) face some of the highest financial obligations at conviction

Rochester, NY: Measures for Justice, 2021. 7p.