By Walter Kemp and Ruggero Scaturro

  The Danube is Europe’s second longest river, flowing through 10 countries between Germany and Ukraine, from the Black Forest to the Black Sea. Throughout history, it has been the belt of Mitteleuropa, linking the countries of western, central and eastern Europe. The Danube took on new strategic importance after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Danube ports in Romania, Moldova and Ukraine became a lifeline for the trans-shipment of key exports such as grain and fertilizers. Major investment in the infrastructure of ports (such as cranes and warehouses) was made during this period to support increased trade flows. However, experience shows that a rapid increase in licit activity without corresponding improvements in security can increase the risks of illicit activity. Nevertheless, the Danube’s vulnerability to organized crime has received little attention from policymakers or researchers. This may be for good reason: evidence of the risk is scarce. The last organized crime threat assessment (carried out by Europol) dates from 2011. There have been few seizures of contraband along the Danube in the past decade and, although a 2022 Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) report on trafficking through ports in south-eastern Europe1 flagged isolated cases of organized crime on the Danube, these fell outside the scope of that study. Is the current lack of reported criminal activity an indication of a low-risk inland waterway, or is it a reflection of limited attention and resources? After all, as the saying goes, ‘you do not find what you do not seek’. The GI-TOC, which has been monitoring the impact of the war in Ukraine on illicit economies, is well positioned to investigate this question. In September 2023, the United Kingdom commissioned this study to examine the vulnerability of the Danube to trafficking. One of the main findings of this report is a concerning lack of law enforcement cooperation among the Danube riparian states even though most of them are co-members or partners of the European Union. This study found little evidence of trafficking on the river, due in part to a lack of data on seizures, which points to a potential security gap. However, it did discover several vulnerabilities that create a permissive environment for different kinds of illicit activity on some sections of the river. Furthermore, the increased relevance of Danube ports – particularly in Romania, Moldova and Ukraine – because of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine creates new opportunities and relevance for the river but also new challenges, including a heightened risk of organized crime. As a result, part of this report is devoted to assessing the potential risk of organized crime in the tri-border region along the lower Danube. The report concludes with a number of recommendations to reduce vulnerabilities to illicit flows of fuel, cigarettes, smuggling of migrants and other forms of organized crime along the river, and to improve cooperation between law enforcement bodies in different countries.

Geneva, SWIT: The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2024.2024. 40p