By Todd Foglesong, Ron Levi, Léo Henry, Enrique Bouchot, Emma Wildeman

This report analyzes data on crime and violence across hundreds of cities and counties in the United States between 2014 and 2023 to appraise the relationship between violent crime and prosecutors deemed “progressive.” We find no evidence to support the claim that prosecutors of any type were responsible for the increase in homicide or other violent crimes before, during, or after the pandemic. Instead, we infer that fluctuations in violence and crime during this period are likely rooted in the changing social ecology of urban centers and rural areas. We recommend that further analyses of violent crime be supplemented by quantitative research on social inequality and qualitative research into the documented practices of prosecutors in cities and counties that record divergent patterns in violent crime.

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto, 2024. 70p.