By Nick Morgan, Jacqueline Hoare and Christos Byron

While most acquisitive crimes have fallen consistently over the past five years, metal theft increased between 2009 and 2011 in line with a sharp rise in global metal prices. It then fell during 2012 and 2013.  This paper summarises results of analyses which aimed to test whether the decline from 2012 was caused primarily by the government/law enforcement interventions launched to address metal theft, or was simply due to metal prices falling back from their peak.  The analysis is based mainly on data for metal thefts held by the Energy Networks Association (ENA), though data from British Transport Police (BTP) are also used to verify the main results. The phased roll-out of Operation Tornado across England and Wales helps to identify the specific impact of the interventions, as distinct from other factors that might have contributed to the fall in metal thefts.  The analysis found that metal thefts recorded by the Energy Networks Association and by British Transport Police fell to levels far lower during 2012 and 2013 than would be expected from the drop in metal prices alone.  This implies that the interventions launched during that period, Operation Tornado and cashless trading at scrap metal dealers (described below), did contribute to a substantial reduction in the number of offences.  Analysis showed a large, statistically significant effect for the interventions even when controlling for metal prices and other factors driving acquisitive crime.  Scotland, which did not receive the interventions, had a rising trend in metal theft during the post-intervention period, according to the Energy Networks Association data. This adds further weight to the main finding, and suggests that some metal theft may have been displaced north of the border.  As with most retrospective evaluations, there are necessary limitations with both the data and the methodology employed, but these findings are in line with the limited existing evidence from other nations.

London: Home Office, 2015. 26p.