By Mark Shaw

Drug seizures are widely referred to in the media and academic reporting on drug trafficking and organised crime. Everyone knows their limitations. But what if seizures represent the exact opposite of what we generally think them to be? That is, not a reflection of state efficiency, but rather cracks in systems of political protection. If that is the case, they may appear more regularly at some times rather than others. A detailed study of West African cocaine seizures in the context of periods of political instability over a twenty-year period suggest this association is worth exploring. Key findings ∙ Drug seizures in West Africa have been concentrated in two periods: 2003-2012 and more lately in the period from 2019, with a ‘seizure drought’ in between. ∙ At a regional level, increases in seizures correlated with period of declining political stability while declines in seizures occur during periods of political stability. ∙ This relationship can also be seen in countries with cycles of conflict and instability, namely GuineaBissau and Mali. Notably, seizures occur in the period just before instability increases. ∙ As there is strong evidence of political protection over the drug trafficking economy in the region, increases in seizures may align with periods when political protection systems for trafficking weaken or crack. Seizures decline again when new systems of political protection are put in place. ∙ One outlier is Nigeria which has a very stable and low level of seizures. This is a reflection of a longstanding and lower-level system of criminal protection, partly the outcome of the fact that most illicit profits are generated outside the drug sector. ∙ This suggests that seizure data is important – but not for the reasons generally accepted – and when carefully examined can be read as a reflection of changes in the political economy. If so, they may serve as ‘warning flares’ of pending political instability

ENACT-Africa, 2021. 24p.