By David Spencer and Alexander Tait

British policing, and the criminal justice system more widely, is in crisis. Great swathes of the public believe that those who commit crimes do not suffer sufficient consequences for their actions.1 They witness police officers being told to consider making fewer arrests,2 and a low likelihood of offenders being charged or summonsed to court.3 When they look at the criminal courts, the public see huge delays4 and lenient sentences for those that have broken the law.5 The public observe individuals in their neighbourhoods continuing a life of crime, when they should be in prison. There is a significant distance between how tough on crime and criminals the public believe the police and criminal justice system should be, and how tough on crime and criminals the public believe the police and criminal justice system currently are. We call this the ‘Toughness Gap’. And this is not just about public perception. While overall crime may have fallen over the 30 years, this headline obscures an explosion in many types of crime – including an increase in criminal offences by 12% over the last year alone.6 Robbery increased from 62,354 offences in 2021 to 82,437 in the year to September 2024.7 Knife crime increased by 88.6% between 2015 and 2024.8 Police recorded incidents of shoplifting increased by 23% between 2023 and the year to September 2024 – the highest levels since current records began over 20 years ago.9 Fraud increased by 19% over the last year.10 Between 2010 and 2018 over 70% of police stations in London were closed.11 Between 2010 and 2017 the number of police officers in England and Wales was cut by 19%, before a rapid recruitment exercise replaced some of the officers lost.12 By 2024 the number of police officers was still 3% below 2010 levels.13 As part of its ‘A Portrait of Modern Britain’ project, Policy Exchange commissioned exclusive polling on the views of the British public across a wide range of areas – including on crime and policing. This report reveals that a distinctive electoral battleground has opened on crime and policing. We reveal two key trends. (i) Firstly, there is a clear mandate for the police to adopt a tougher approach to crime than they are currently perceived to be taking. This finding is observed across every major demographic group (age, sex, ethnicity), every economic grouping and amongst supporters of every political party. (ii) Secondly, Reform UK is establishing itself as the political home for those who are most likely to be dissatisfied with policing and those who believe there is the greatest gap between how tough olicing should be and how tough policing currently is. These two trends come with lessons and warnings for other political parties – particularly the incumbent Labour Government.

London: Policy Exchange, 2025. 35p.