By David Hureau, Theodore Wilson

We depicted the episodic nature of illegal gun carrying and tested its co-occurrence with gun violence victimization and exposure. We tested differences in differences using data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, originally collected between 2000 and 2010 (Phoenix, Arizona, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania), on young people adjudicated for serious involvement in crime. We then tested the changes in gun victimization experiences attending gun-carrying changes for this sample. We found gun victimization to be highest during periods of gun carrying, and this correspondence held regardless of future or past gun-carrying behavior. This manifests both in direct victimization and witnessing gun violence. Even among gun carriers, episodes of non-carrying are common, with 76.4% of gun carriers in a 1-year period also reporting a pause in their carrying behavior of at least 6 months. Gun carrying and gun violence exposure co-occur at a high rate. During any period of gun carrying, the carrier has at least a 2% chance of getting shot versus near 0% for periods of non-carrying. Our results suggest that illegal gun carrying is malleable, and public health efforts to reduce the incidence of gun carrying could yield meaningful reductions in violence.

Am J Epidemiol. 2021;190(12):2544–2551