By Neil Donnelly

To examine 10-year trends in offending by females in New South Wales (NSW) between 2014 and 2023. METHOD Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for all people proceeded against by the NSW Police Force between 2014 and 2023. The number and proportion of offences committed by female and male offenders are presented. Offending trends are examined across 32 specific offence categories using the average annual percentage change in offences and the Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance. This analysis is conducted for the entire population of female and male offenders regardless of age, then repeated for the subset of young offenders. RESULTS Between 2014 and 2023 the number of females proceeded against by NSW police increased by 40%, compared to just 17% for males. The proportion of female offenders grew by around 15%, from 19% of all offenders in 2014 to 22% of all offenders in 2023. Female offenders were most commonly proceeded against for steal from retail store (12%), possess/use drugs (12%), domestic violence (DV) assault (11%), non-DV assault (7%) and breach bail conditions (7%). Much of the overall growth in female offending can be explained by increases in a small number of high-volume offence categories. These include: breach of Apprehended Violence Orders (12% increase in female offences from 2014 to 2023 versus a 7% increase in male offenders); breach bail conditions (12% vs. 8%); DV assault (8% vs. 2%); and non-DV assault (4% vs. 1%). The average annual number of female offenders (compared to males) also increased across several lower volume offences, although these contributed less to the growth in female offending overall. Most predominantly: sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (13% vs. 2.5%); motor vehicle theft (12% vs. 9%); prohibited weapons offences (8% vs. 4%); break and enter non-dwelling (7% vs. stable); and trespass (6% vs. 3%). Trends and offending patterns were similar for young female offenders aged 10-17 years. One difference was the number of young female offenders grew by just 20% between 2014 and 2023 (compared to relatively stable trends for young male offenders). CONCLUSION While there has been a long-term increase in the number of female offenders proceeded against by the NSW Police Force, they continue to represent a small proportion of all offenders. Further analysis utilising representative surveys may provide insight int

Sydney: NSW BUREAU OF CRIME STATISTICS AND RESEARCH - 2024. 14p.

By Nicholas Chan and Alana Cook

It is well recognised that both domestic and non-domestic violence vary over the course of the year often rising in summer and spiking during holiday periods and with other key events. This paper shows the daily number of domestic violence (DV) and non-DV assaults recorded by the NSW Police Force on each date of the year to observe the extent to which violence increases on public holidays and other significant dates1 . Figure 1 shows the median daily number of criminal incidents of assault recorded by police from the years 2010 to 2023. To minimise the impact of abnormal crime patterns during the COVID pandemic, the chart excludes the years 2020 and 2021. The chart shows that across the year, there are clear peaks on several dates. The largest spike for both DV assault and non-DV assault occurs on New Year’s Day (1 January). Obvious spikes in assault also occur on Australia Day (January 26), ANZAC Day (April 25), New Year’s Eve (31 December), Christmas Day (December 25) and Boxing Day (December 26).

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. 2024. 4p.

By Lydia Bates, et al.

Why this guide? A wide variety of forms of misogyny and genderbased bigotry have spiked in recent years.1 This includes a documented rise in forms of male supremacist violence that are now recognized as part of the spectrum of domestic violent extremism, including threats, plots and attacks from misogynist incels. 2 3 Everyday forms of misogyny and hostile sexism, especially online, have also increased, with one study showing that misogynistic tweets positively predict domestic and family violence in the United States.4 Further, anti-feminist sentiments have been rising among Generation Z boys and young men.5 This rise in gender-based bigotry includes a surge of anti-LGBTQ+ ideas and beliefs, evidenced through the hundreds of discriminatory bills introduced across the United States in 2024.6 At the intersection of anti-Black racism, anti-LGBTQ+ hate and misogyny, Black women, girls and transgender women experience an outsized amount of harm and violence. On the community level, these harms manifest from harassment at Pride month events and attacks on LGBTQ+ friendly businesses to unequal reproductive health care access and deadly transmisogynist violence. These surges are partially explained by the sheer breadth of online spaces where gender-based hate is fostered and thrives, such as video game chats, comment trolls on mainstream social media sites, and dedicated Reddit pages focused on ways to manipulate and denigrate women. Because hateful comments, memes and short-form videos are often infused with irony, satire or other forms of humor, gender-based hate online is sometimes disguised as “just a joke” or hidden behind the excuse of having two different meanings. Hate and policing individuals’ gender have also been legitimized and normalized by politicians, elected officials, and online influencers who peddle supposed success stories of wealth and status that rely on the exploitation and domination of women. And extremist groups who embrace racism and political violence, like the Proud Boys, have joined the fray by directly targeting bookstores that host Drag Story Hours and demonstrations advocating for abortion rights. Falsely linking drag performances and LGBTQ+ people with sexual predation, sometimes called “grooming,” they have sought new ways to build sympathy among mainstream conservatives.7 Collaboration & Scope A collaborative team of experts from the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) and the Polarization & Extremism Research & Innovation Lab (PERIL) drafted this guide. It is part of a broader public health approach for the prevention of violence and harm stemming from extremism, manipulative disinformation and dehumanizing rhetoric. Our organizations root our development of this approach in communities’ needs and by centering support for targeted individuals and survivors. And our approach is necessarily noncarceral, so that we can emphasize education and prevention over monitoring, surveillance and other security-based approaches. This guide is a resource for caregivers who surround and support young people – parents and relatives, teachers and educators, counselors and therapists, coaches and youth mentors, and more. It includes an overview and introduction to the concepts, trends and risks related to gender-based bigotry alongside the tools to build resilience and awareness, as well as ways to intervene. It also provides strategies and resources to support survivors and targeted individuals and communities. While this guide cannot cover every harm that young people will encounter related to gender-based bigotry, we aim for as wide a breadth as possible.

Montgomery, AL: Southern Poverty Law Center, 2024.

By Charles C. Lanfear, David S. Kirk , Robert J. Sampson

Most homicides in the United States are committed using a handgun, but little research examines gun carrying over critical stages of the life course and changing contexts of violence. Notably, although most of the handgun homicides are committed by adults, most research on concealed gun carrying focuses on adolescents in single cohort studies. Using more than 25 years of longitudinal multi-cohort data from Chicago, 1994–2021, we show that pathways of concealed gun carrying are distinct between adolescence and adulthood. Adolescent carrying is often age-limited and responsive to direct exposure to gun violence (witnessing and victimization), while adult carrying is a persistent behavior that is less tied to direct exposure. The onset of concealed carry is also a strong predictor of later gun use (shooting or brandishing), and we find distinct patterns of gun use between individuals who first carry in adolescence versus adulthood. We discuss the implications of these dual pathways for research and policies on firearm use.

Sci. Adv. 10, 2024, 12p.

By Adebayo Benedict Soares and Suleman Lazarus

This article examines fifty case files of cybercriminals that the Economicand Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) convicted for online romance fraud. It profiles offenders and explores the value of the SpaceTransition Theory in understanding digital crimes. Through documentary analysis, the study identifies key patterns in victim demographics, fraudsters’ operational strategies, and offenders’ socioeconomic back-grounds. Findings reveal a high concentration of U.S. victims (56%) and a preference among offenders for Apple’s iPhone (58%). Most offenders presented themselves as Caucasian American males (46%) or military personnel (12%), with some adopting Caucasian European male identities (10%). Victim demographics show a pronounced gender disparity: 70% of offenders primarily targeted female victims, 14% targeted male victims, 10% reached both genders, and 6% did not specify the victims’ gender. The analysis also indicates that most offenders were university students (74%), with Facebook (46%) identified as the primary platform for these fraudulent activities. The study emphasizes the need for prevention strategies that genuinely consider the socioeconomic and political conditions that may make online fraud an appealing career option.

Criminal Justice Studies : A Critical Journal of Crime, Law and Society, 2024, 25p.

By Rohit Acharya and Rhett Morris

In 2020, the average U.S. city experienced a surge in its homicide rate of almost 30%—the fastest spike ever recorded in the country. Across the nation, more than 24,000 people were killed compared to around 19,000 the year before.

Homicides remained high in 2021 and 2022, but in 2023 they began to fall rapidly. Projections suggest the national homicide rate in 2024 is on track to return to levels close to those recorded in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet that spike in murders continues to deliver major costs in terms of the lives lost, the people incarcerated, and the perception of decreased safety across the country.

Some commentators have suggested the increase in homicides during 2020 was a response to the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in May of that year. Others hypothesized that it was caused by a police “pull back,” in which officers chose to do less work in reaction to the protests that followed Floyd’s death.

As more information has become available, these theories appear to be less supported by evidence than some initially thought.1 The evidence indicates that the national homicide rate was already on track to reach a peak far above the previous year even before Floyd was killed.As Figure 1 demonstrates, murders began to rise rapidly in mid-April of 2020. Cell phone data show this is when residents started leaving home more often as lockdown policies eased and the weather grew warmer. During the 6-week period from April 12 to May 23 (weeks 16 to 21 in Figure 1), homicides went up by an average of 17 murders each week.

After Floyd was killed on May 25, the national homicide rate continued to follow this trend, with additional increases during the 2 weeks around Memorial Day and the 2-week period around July 4. But even the highest point of these additional increases was less than 40 murders above the pre-existing trend. While it’s true that homicides did temporarily rise more than they were already on track to following Floyd’s death, these additional increases are unlikely to explain the 5,000 additional murders seen during the year.

This leaves us with a question: What happened that could have caused homicides to spike in 2020, remain high for 2 years, and then start to decline rapidly in 2023?

New data offers a potential explanation. In this report, we analyze thousands of police records and compare them to changes that occurred in U.S. cities just before homicides started to surge. This showed that the spike in murders during 2020 was directly connected to local unemployment and school closures in low-income areas. Cities with larger numbers of young men forced out of work and teen boys pushed out of school in low-income neighborhoods during March and early April, had greater increases in homicide from May to December that year, on average. The persistence of these changes can also explain why murders remained high in 2021 and 2022 and then fell in late 2023 and 2024.

These analyses point to new answers and offer focused solutions that civic leaders can use to prevent future spikes in murder and reduce current levels of violence. We present these findings in detail below in three main sections:

First, we review evidence from existing research that reveals a formula for how violence develops in cities.

Second, we analyze detailed administrative data from a single city with multiple spikes in murder prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to illustrate how this formula applies to local communities.

Finally, we use lessons from this analysis to offer a new explanation for the national spike in homicides in 2020 and make recommendations on how to avoid future increases in murder.

Brookings, 2024. 20p.

By J.M. Tamarit Sumalla, P. Romero Seseña, L. Arantegui Arràez, A. Aizpitarte

Sexual violence in an intimate relationship is a less studied phenomenon than other forms of intimate partner violence, despite data pointing to a high prevalence. Studies on how the cases are sentenced are scarce. Until recently, many laws did not allow marital rape to be punished as a crime of rape, and some studies showed a tendency for the courts to punish these cases less severely. The present study is based on an analysis of 964 rape cases of adult women in Spain. All the information was extracted from sentences of the Provincial Courts issued between 2015 and 2022. Results showed that significantly lower conviction rates and less severe penalties were imposed when the rape was committed by the intimate partner compared to other rape cases where the offenders were not partners (family members, acquaintances, or unknown strangers). The practical implications of these results in several areas are discussed.

European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, Volume 30, pages 567–587, (2024)

By Our Watch

This report summarises the findings of a survey exploring young Australians' attitudes to gender, sex, relationships and pornography. It finds that early exposure to pornography can have a significant negative impact and that young people are accessing pornographic material earlier than previously reported. The report highlights measures governments can take to reduce the harmful impacts of pornography on children and young people.

The report argues that young people will continue to access all kinds of material, both in pornography and in other forms of media, to understand sex and relationships and so argues for a harm reduction approach, ensuring that young people and communities are equipped and supported to critically engage with this material.

Findings

• The average age at which the participants have first seen porn was 13.6 years.

• For young women, the average age is 2 years younger than it was in 2018.

• 31% of young people are watching porn as a form of sexual education.

• 25% of 16 to 17 year olds see porn as realistic.

• 73% of young people (65% of men and 80% of women) agree that porn is degrading to women.

• Access to information and education about pornography has the potential to mediate the negative impacts of pornography on young people, their wellbeing and relationships.

Key recommendations

• Integrate information on the topic of pornography in age-appropriate and sequential ways into respectful relationships education (RRE) across school sectors.

• Work in partnership with experts and uses co-design processes with young people to develop information and practical resources specifically for young people on pornography.

• Partner with research organisations to collect robust nationally representative data about young people’s pornography exposure and access, to inform ongoing work and responses.

Melbourne< Our Watch, 2024. 4p.

By Becki R. Goggins, Dennis A. DeBacco

This report summarizes the results from the seventeenth survey of criminal history information systems conducted for BJS by SEARCH, The National Consortium for Justice Information and Statistics, since 1989; it presents data on the functions and status of state criminal history files as of December 31, 2022. This report is based on the results from a survey conducted among the administrators of the state criminal history record repositories in May–July 2023. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was the source for some of the information relating to criminal history records, including state participation in the Interstate Identification Index (III) system (the national criminal records exchange system) and the number of III records maintained by the FBI on behalf of the states; the number of records in the wanted persons file; and the protection order file of the FBI’s National Crime Information Center (NCIC) database. The report found that forty-nine states, the District of Columbia, and Guam report the total number of persons in their criminal history files as 116,447,200, of which over 96% are automated records; thirty states, the District of Columbia, and Guam have fully automated criminal history files.

Sacramento, CA: SEARCH Group, Incorporated; 2024. 65p.

By Leopoldo Fergusson, José-Alberto Guerra, and James Robinson

Since formal rules can only partially reduce opportunistic behavior, third-party sanctioning to promote fairness is critical to achieving desirable social outcomes. Social norms may underpin such behavior, but they can also undermine it. We study one such norm the “don’t be a toad” norm, as it is referred to in Colombia that tells people to mind their own business and not snitch on others. In a set of fairness games where a third party can punish unfair behavior, but players can invoke the “don’t be a toad” norm, we find that the mere possibility of invoking this norm completely reverses the benefits of third-party sanctioning to achieve fair social outcomes. We establish this is an anti-social norm in a well-defined sense: most players consider it inappropriate, yet they expect the majority will invoke it. To understand this phenomenon we develop an evolutionary model of endogenous social norm transmission and demonstrate that a payoff advantage from adherence to the norm in social dilemmas, combined with sufficient heterogeneity in the disutility of those who view the norm as inappropriate, can generate the apparent paradox of an anti-social norm in the steady-state equilibrium. We provide further evidence that historical exposure to political violence, which increased the ostracization of snitches, raised sensitivity to this norm.

Chicago: University of Chicago, The Becker Friedman Institute for Economics (BFI) , 2024. 57p.

By Michael Cerda-Jara and David J. Harding

One of the primary ways in which contact with the criminal legal system creates and maintains inequality is through the stigma of a criminal record. Although the negative effects of the stigma of a criminal record are well-documented, existing research is limited to the low-wage labor market. Through a job application audit design, this study examines the role of criminal record stigma in the labor market for recent college graduates across Black, Latino, and white men. We find that criminal record stigma has a large effect among white college-educated men but not among Black or Latino men and find no evidence that earning a college degree after the record mitigates criminal record stigma. In-depth interviews with college-educated men with a criminal record show that the criminal record stigma has effects beyond the initial application stage, as many reported provisional job offers being rescinded following a criminal background check, leading participants to limit the jobs to which they applied

Sociological Science 11: 42-66.2024

By Juliana Gómez-Quintero, Shane D. Johnson, Hervé Borrion, and Samantha Lundrigan

The metaverse is an emerging convergence of technologies (e.g., virtual reality and blockchains) that enables users to experience mixed/extended realities for various legitimate purposes (e.g., gaming, tourism, manufacturing and education). Unfortunately, the crime and security implications of emerging technologies are often overlooked. To anticipate crimes that the metaverse might facilitate, we report the findings of a nominal group technique (NGT) study, which involved a state-of-the-art scoping review of the existing literature and elicitation exercises with two groups of experts (one a diverse group from the UK and Europe, the other representing international law enforcement) with a wide range of expertise. A total of 30 crime threats were identified in the literature or by participants. The elicitation exercises also explored how harmful, frequent, achievable and defeatable participants anticipated that the crimes identified would be. Ratings for these aspects were largely consistent across the two samples, with crimes of a sexual nature (e.g., child sexual abuse material), and crimes against the person (e.g., hate crime) being rated as presenting the highest future risks (i.e. being high harm and high frequency) and being the most difficult to address. The findings illuminate understanding of the most (and least) harmful and likely crime threats the metaverse could facilitate and consequently help stakeholders to prioritise which offences to focus on. In discussing how the crime threats might be addressed, we consider roles and responsibilities and how theory about the management of physical places might inform crime prevention in the metaverse(s).

Futures, Volume 157, March 2024, 103338

By Marguerite DeLiema and Paul Witt

We examine the characteristics of consumers who reported scams to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission. We assess how consumers vary demographically across six scam types, and how the overall emotional sentiment of a consumer’s complaint (positive, negative, neutral/mixed) relates to reporting victimization versus attempted fraud (no losses). For romance, tech support, and prize, sweepstakes, and lottery scams, more older than young and middle-aged adults reported victimization. Across all scam types, consumers classified as Black, Hispanic, and Asian/Asian Pacific Islander were more likely than non-Hispanic white consumers to report victimization than attempted fraud. Relative to complaints categorized as emotionally neutral or mixed, we find that emotionally positive complaints and emotionally negative complaints were significantly associated with victimization, but that these relationships differed by scam type. This study helps identify which consumer groups are affected by specific scams and the association between emotion and victimization.

Security Journal (2024) 37:921–964

By Kelly Huie, Michelle Butler, & Andrew Percy

Few studies have examined crime on Snapchat despite its popularity and growing accounts of victimization occurring on the application. This study addresses this gap in knowledge by conducting a rapid review of crime on Snapchat across 18 databases. The findings indicate this area is under-researched, with only 35 articles eligible for inclusion and fve focusing solely on crime on Snapchat. Nevertheless, eleven types of crimes were identified as occurring on Snapchat, including: blackmail; the sharing of private, sexual material without consent; grooming/solicitation of minors; stalking; posting threatening, intimidating or harassing material; hate crime; sharing offensive, menacing or obscene content; obtaining illicit goods; identity theft; fraud; and hacking. The findings additionally revealed some patterns in offending and victimization that are also discussed.

Security Journal (2024) 37:903–920

By: Hai Thanh Luong

After the Silk Road closure, many studies started focusing on the trend and patterns of darknet-related crimes in the 2010s. This frst study combined a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis in the feld. This study clarifes 49 articles in criminology and penology among 1150 publications relating to the darknet on the Web of Science database to review and analyze the research evolutions of this topic in the last decade. The main fndings point out (1) almost all leading authors with their most infuential papers came from the Global South with predominant contributions; (2) unbalancing publications between regional scholars and their institutions and countries although the darknet-related criminals occurred and operated without border; and (3) some specialized themes have identifed to call further extensive research such as policing interventions in the darknet and fows of the cryptocurrency in cryptomarkets, among others.

Security Journal (2024) 37:535–574

By Georgina Ireland, Linda Wijlaars, Matthew A Jay, Claire Grant, Rachel Pearson, Johnny Downs and Ruth Gilbert

This study aimed to determine the risk of mothers being involved in public law family court care proceedings and their social and health characteristics by analysing linked administrative family court and healthcare records. Involvement in care proceedings reflects serious concerns for the care or safety of a child. Local Authority (LA) social care departments can bring care proceedings under Section 31 of the Children Act 1989 due to concerns about significant harm, or risk of significant harm to the child attributable to care given by the parents or the child being beyond parental control. Each year, around 10,000 mothers in England are involved in care proceedings. In 80% of these proceedings, the child is placed with friends or family, unrelated foster carers, in residential care or for adoption. One fifth remain with one or both birth parents, with or without a supervision order.

Recent developments in national and regional linkages of administrative health data to family court or social services data have contributed insights into maternal health needs in Wales, Sweden and Canada, but evidence is lacking for England (5-15). Similar linked data for England would contribute new insights due to the population size, the regional and ethnic variation in England, and variability in determinants of service access and outcomes across different population subgroups. From a policy and practice perspective, evidence from linked data on the health of parents involved in family court care proceedings could inform how and when healthcare and related services could intervene to improve parental health and support, and thereby prevent or mitigate child maltreatment, and in some cases, avoid care proceedings.

Aims and objectives

This study aimed to address the evidence gap in England on the health of mothers involved in care proceedings compared with their peers. We conducted two sub-studies:

1. In the first, we studied all first-time mothers between 2007-19 in the English NHS, including those involved in care proceedings, to:

• Create a database of first-time mothers using hospital admission data, linked to care proceedings in England and assess linkage accuracy.

• Estimate the 10-year risk of care proceedings for first-time mothers in England and describe differences in maternal social and health characteristics at a first birth.

• Compare the number of births within 10 years to first-time mothers involved and not involved in care proceedings.

• Assess maternal and birth characteristics associated with recurrent care proceedings.

• Estimate differences in mortality among mothers involved and not involved in care proceedings.

2. Second, we studied mothers involved in care proceedings and other women using mental health service records in four LAs in south London to:

• Create a research database that linked records of mothers involved in care proceedings in south London to mental health service data and assess linkage accuracy.

• Compare the characteristics of mental health service use among mothers involved in care proceedings and other women using mental health services.

• Compare the risk of death among mothers involved in care proceedings with other women using mental health services.

• Evaluate patterns of mental health service use before and after start of care proceedings.

London: Nuffield Foundation, 2024. 63p.

By The Justice Policy Institute

The presence of law enforcement in schools has been a controversial issue for decades. Dual concerns about rising rates of violence among youth coupled with increased attention paid to school shootings were a catalyst for federal funding for more police, frequently referred to as “School Resource Officers” (SROs), in schools. In fact, rates of youth violence were plummeting independent of law enforcement interventions and the impact of SROs on school shootings has been dubious at best. Additionally, SROs have been linked with exacerbating racial disparities in justice involvement and youth being driven deeper into the juvenile and adult criminal justice systems. Rather than preventing crime, SROs have been linked with increased arrests for non-criminal, youthful behavior, commonly known as the school-to-prison pipeline.  

Washington, DC: Justice Policy Institute, 2020. 8p.

By Véronique Strimelle et Françoise Vanhamme

This volume commemorates the 40th anniversary of the University of Ottawa’s Department of Criminology, founded in 1968. It relates the history of the department from its origins to today, focusing on the theoretical debates that have influenced its critical and self-reflexive approach to criminology. The contributions to this volume continue in that vein by questioning the traditional perspective of criminology on a variety of topics including police studies, mental health, political violence, suicide, and crime prevention. Rights and Voices reveals the significant role that the University of Ottawa has played in redefining criminology to advocate activism, social justice, and compassion.

University of Ottawa Press / Les Presses de l’Université d’Ottawa, 2010. 284p.

By Dana Stripling; Rick Dierenfeldt; Grant Drawve; Christina Policastro; Gale Iles

An extensive body of literature has described the influence of neighborhood characteristics, including socio-economic deprivation, residential turnover, and racial/ethnic composition on gun crime. There have been limited efforts, however, to examine the extent to which these effects might vary based on the nature of gun crime—particularly in communities outside of major cities like Chicago or St. Louis. This study attempts to address this issue through the application of negative binomial regression and equality of coefficients tests to data obtained from the crime logs and American Community Survey data of a medium-sized city in the Southeastern U.S. Specifically, this study examines (in)equality in the structural covariates of gun crimes when these offenses are disaggregated by gang-involved gun crime versus non-gang involved gun crime. Results indicate that the relative influence of neighborhood structural characteristics varies by gun crime type, illustrating the need for disaggregated measures for developing effective policy and assessment.  

The University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Chattanooga, Tennessee , 2023. 56p.  

By Rick Dierenfeldt, Grant Drawve, Joshua May, Ellee Jackson

A growing body of literature has explored the ‘life course’ of crime guns, with a particular focus on the time between the initial point of sale of firearms and their eventual recovery by police following a crime. We contend that this examination is incomplete, with limited consideration given to the period between a firearm's first known use in a criminal offense and its recovery by police—which we refer to as time in crime. Increased understanding of this time frame is important given that crime guns are frequently recirculated among criminally involved groups and the recent finding that time in circulation following first known use in a crime is a significant predictor of multiple uses of crime guns. We add to the literature through the application of negative binomial regression to a sample of 310 crime guns used in offenses in a city in the Southeastern United States to examine how neighborhood context and initial incident characteristics influence the number of days that firearms remain in circulation after their first known use in a crime. We found that increased levels of concentrated disadvantage and gang involvement during the original incident correspond with significant increases in time in crime, while increased levels of residential stability and the ability of police to identify suspects are linked with more rapid recovery of crime guns. Notably, these findings hold even after the inclusion of popular time-to-crime covariates, including firearm quality, caliber, and status as a stolen gun. 

Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 49 Dated: July 2024 Pages: 723-744