By Vanya Gastrow

A fall in business robberies over the past decade could indicate rising levels of extortion and organised crime.

South Africa is a country plagued by violent crime. Media headlines of murders, kidnappings and sexual violence are backed up by the country’s crime data. The Institute for Security Studies’ (ISS) recent call for policing reforms describes how the South African Police Service’s (SAPS) track record has measurably declined since 2012, with crimes such as murder increasing and public perceptions of safety falling.

But in Cape Town, one form of violent crime is bucking this trend and showing a consistent and significant decline. Business robberies, which initially rose in the early 2000s, have been falling markedly over the past decade, as reflected by ISS Crime Hub data.

Business robberies differ from crimes such as burglary because they entail violence or the threat thereof. In Cape Town, business robberies started increasing in 2006 when reported cases surged from 99 to 1 656 cases in 2014/15. This crime wave comprised an increase of well over 1 000% in a decade.

In this article, Vanya Gastrow explores the decline in business robberies in Cape Town over the past decade, suggesting that this trend may indicate a rise in extortion and organised crime rather than an actual decrease in violent crime.

Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2024. 5p.