By Jeffrey A. Singer and Trevor Burrus

Fifty‐one years after President Richard M. Nixon declared a “war on drugs,” overdose deaths from illicit drug use have climbed to record levels. Last November, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 100,000 overdose deaths for the 12‐month period ending in April 2021, a 28.5 percent increase over the year before. Nearly 76,000 of those deaths were opioid related, and 83 percent of opioid‐related deaths involved illicit fentanyl.

Fentanyl is a highly potent opioid—about 50 times stronger than heroin—that can easily cause overdoses, particularly if users don’t know if it is in their drug supply or how much. Over the past decade, drug traffickers have increasingly preferred fentanyl because of its compact size. The smuggler’s preference for higher potency drugs is a manifestation of the “iron law of prohibition,” and it is almost the entire reason fentanyl has poisoned the American drug supply. The iron law of prohibition states that, all things being equal, as enforcement ramps up, smugglers prefer higher potency forms of a drug for the same reason those who sneak alcohol into a football game prefer hard alcohol in flasks to 12‐packs of beer. The lethal logic of the iron law of prohibition means that we cannot enforce our way out of the opioid crisis. And if fentanyl smugglers bexcome somehow easy to catch, there’s always carfentanil, which is about 100 times more potent than fentanyl and has already been showing up in America’s drug supply.

Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2022. 10p.