By Tadesse Simie Metekia and Matt Herbert

Summary Due to their difficult political paths – Ethiopia’s stalled transition and Tunisia’s reversal – these two nations demonstrate the effects of failing transitions and democratic backsliding on rising transnational organised crime. Reversing the current trend of organised crime depends heavily on restoring stability and rule-of-law-based democracies, which could be achieved through a revived political process that embraces dialogue and transitional justice to mitigate the challenges and enable governance structures to tackle the complexities of organised crime. Key points The surge in transnational organised crime in Ethiopia and Tunisia can be seen as a consequence of their unrealised political transitions due to: • ensuing economic upheaval that has been the major driver of transnational organised crimes in both countries • porous borders and ungoverned spaces that allow criminal networks to grow • attention to pressing security challenges, such as conflicts and terrorism, that create space for criminal networks to strengthen and operate with impunity

ENACT Africa, 2024. 48p.