By Christophe Bellego and Joeffrey Drouard

Using Rio de Janeiro’s slum pacification program initiated in 2008, we study the effect of policies aimed at fighting drug gangs on crime. By combining a proxy variable with a simple structural model, we correct the bias resulting from the increase in unobserved crime reporting. We find that the program decreased the murder and the robbery rates by 7% and 34% respectively. However, the assault and the threat rates increased by 51% and 60% respectively. Absolute and marginal crime deterrence effects and a gang governance effect, namely that gangs can provide security to their turf, explain our results

Unpublished paper, 2019. 84p.