Does It Pay to Fight Crime? Evidence from the Pacification of Slums in Rio de Janeiro

By Christophe Bellego and Joeffrey Drouard

Using Rio de Janeiro’s slum pacification program initiated in 2008, we study the effect of policies aimed at fighting drug gangs on crime. By combining a proxy variable with a simple structural model, we correct the bias resulting from the increase in unobserved crime reporting. We find that the program decreased the murder and the robbery rates by 7% and 34% respectively. However, the assault and the threat rates increased by 51% and 60% respectively. Absolute and marginal crime deterrence effects and a gang governance effect, namely that gangs can provide security to their turf, explain our results

Unpublished paper, 2019. 84p.