The resilience of drug trafficking organizations: Simulating the impact of police arresting key roles

By Deborah Manzi, Francesco Calderoni

This research analyses the resistance and resilience of drug trafficking organizations against law enforcement interventions targeting specific operational roles.

Methods

Using the MADTOR agent-based model, which draws on extensive data from a significant police operation and relevant literature, we simulate the complex dynamics of a major cocaine trafficking and dealing group. The study examined the impact of different arrest scenarios targeting traffickers, packagers, or retailers, on the organization's survival, member count, and revenue.

Results

The findings reveal that interventions targeting traffickers lead to the most significant disruptions, while focusing on retailers also yields substantial impacts. Arresting packagers causes limited disruption.

Conclusions

The findings underscore the importance of role-specific law enforcement approaches in dismantling drug trafficking organizations, considering each role's distinct characteristics and operational importance.

Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume 91, March–April 2024, 102165, 13 pages