By Sulin Sardoschau and Annalí Casanueva-Artís

Freedom of speech is central to democracy, but protests that amplify extremist views expose a critical trade-off between civil liberties and public safety. This paper investigates how right-wing demonstrations affect the incidence of hate crimes, focusing on Germany’s largest far-right movement since World War II. Leveraging a difference-in-differences framework with instrumental variable and event-study approaches, we find that a 20% increase in local protest attendance nearly doubles hate crime occurrences. We explore three potential mechanisms— signaling, agitation, and coordination—by examining protest dynamics, spatial diffusion, media influence, counter-mobilization, and crime characteristics. Our analysis reveals that large protests primarily act as signals of broad xenophobic support, legitimizing extremist violence. This signaling effect propagates through right-wing social media networks and is intensified by local newspaper coverage and Twitter discussions. Consequently, large protests shift local equilibria, resulting in sustained higher levels of violence primarily perpetrated by repeat offenders. Notably, these protests trigger resistance predominantly online, rather than physical counter-protests.

CESifo Working Paper No. 11745, Munich: Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH

By David J. Harding, Maria S. Smith, Da Eun Jung, Stephanie Luna-Lopez & Amanda Glazer

Sociologists use the concept of narrative as an analytical tool and theoretical concept to understand the stories that people tell and their role in social and cultural life. A key tenet of prior research on narratives is their capacity to shape the audience’s understanding and evaluation of the narrator. In this mixed-method study, we investigate the role of narratives in destigmatization through the case of criminal record stigma in the labor market. Based on evidence from a survey experiment in which people with managerial experience were randomly assigned to job applicants with different narratives, we show that evaluations differ across reentry narratives. Drawing on prior theorizations and qualitative interviews with employers, we identify and describe three processes through which narratives impact evaluation and destigmatization: moral justification, social affinity signaling, and information salience.

American Journal of Cultural Sociology, 2025, 33p.

By Rachel Kleinfeld

The United States feels roiled by polarization, and the philanthropic world is seized with debates about what to do. Some scholars claim that Americans are so polarized they are on the brink of civil war. Other polls suggest that voters agree on plenty of policies and that polarization is an illusion. Some philanthropists call for pluralism and civility, while others lean into activism, believing polarization is a byproduct of change toward a more just world. So, is the United States polarized or not? If it is, what is causing the polarization and what are its consequences? Should polarization be solved or tolerated? This paper is intended to answer these questions. It opens with five facts about polarization in the United States today and what those imply for possible interventions. A literature review follows, organized chronologically to explain the scholarly shift from thinking of polarization as an ideological, policy-based phenomenon to an issue of emotion, as well as the emerging understanding of polarization as both a social phenomenon and a political strategy. This paper is organized as follows. Part I: Introduction Five Facts About Polarization in the United States What This Understanding Means for Interventions Part II: The Literature on Polarization First Generation Understanding: Elite Ideological Polarization Polarization Is Policy Difference, and Congress Is the Problem How Was America Polarized? What Caused Elite Polarization? Interventions to Reduce Policy-Based Polarization Among Political Elites Second Generation Understanding: Mass Affective Polarization Polarization Is Emotional Dislike Based on Identity That Affects Regular People How Was America Polarized? What Is Causing Affective Polarization? Interventions to Reduce Affective Polarization Third Generation Understanding: Cracks in the Foundations Reducing Affective Polarization May Not Impact Violent or Antidemocratic Attitudes Antidemocratic Attitudes Political Violence Political Structures Affect Incentives to Polarize Part III: Conclusion What We (Think We) Know in 2023 Ideological Polarization Affective Polarization Washington, DC:

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2023. 74p.

By Garen J. Wintemute, Andrew Crawford, Elizabeth A. Tomsich & Veronica A. Pear

Background

In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA.

Methods

Participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 3 of the survey was conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; invitations to participate were sent to all respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel. Outcome measures concern justification for the use of violence to advance any of 17 specified political objectives, personal willingness to engage in political violence at 4 levels of severity and against 9 target populations, and expectation of firearm use in political violence. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions. Year-to-year change is based on the means of aggregated individual change scores, which have a potential range from 0 (no change) to ± 2.

Results

The 2024 completion rates were 88.4% (8896 respondents/10,064 invitees) overall, 91.6% (8185 respondents/8932 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2023, and 62.8% (711 respondents/1132 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2022 but not in 2023. After weighting, 50.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. From 2023 to 2024, the prevalence of the view that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective did not change (2024: 26.2%, 95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%; 2023: 25.3%, 95% CI 24.1%, 26.5%). There were no changes from 2023 to 2024 in willingness to damage property, threaten a person, injure a person, or kill a person in an act of political violence, and no changes in expectations of firearm use in situations where respondents considered political violence justifiable. Changes on other measures were infrequent (17 of 58 comparisons in the main analysis) and small where they occurred (with 2 exceptions, change < 0.05).

Conclusions

Contrary to expectation, support for and willingness to participate in political violence in this cohort showed little to no change from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.

Inj. Epidemiol. 12, 4 (2025), 29p.

By The Media Accountability Project

Media depictions of gun violence deeply influence how we perceive the individuals perpetuating or victimized in incidents, whether we feel safe, and how society collectively racializes crime and violence. The language that the media uses to describe individuals involved in gun violence incidents has evolved but remains deeply and problematically tied to race and other identities, as seen by the different connotations of “domestic terrorist,” “thug,” and “individual suffering from a mental illness” used to describe gun violence-involved individuals of different ethnicities and races. The impact of these depictions on the public can be profound, as differences in portrayals of gun violence, based on the race of those involved and where incidents occur, may reinforce harmful racial stereotypes and influence public support for gun reform policies. Most research examining gun violence in the media, 1-3 however, tends to overwhelmingly focus on deadly mass shootings and school shootings—fatalities that comprise only a fraction of firearm deaths—and overshadows more common forms of violence that routinely devastates cities across the United States, especially in Black and Latino communities. To better understand the way that media representations of shootings are influenced by race and place, Community Justice partnered with researchers at Northwestern University and the Center for Neighborhood Engaged Research and Science (CORNERS) to collect large portions of the U.S. media landscape on gun violence and analyze it using advanced computational and statistical methods. The goal of the project is to determine the extent to which racial differences among the individuals and communities where gun violence occurs create real, measurable differences in the way that incidents are reported and ultimately viewed. By understanding the relationship between race and media coverage of gun violence incidents, this Media Accountability Project aims to help news outlets, journalists, educators, and community stakeholders build more just

Chicago: Media Accountability Project, Northwestern University, 2024 14p.

By Jessica White, Claudia Wallner, Galen Lamphere-Englund, Love Frankie, Rachel Kowert, Linda Schlegel, Ashton Kingdon, Alexandra Phelan, Alex Newhouse, Gonzalo Saiz and Petra Regeni

As the popularity and social significance of online gaming have surged, with more than three billion gamers encompassing a broad spectrum of the global population, the urgency to understand how gaming spaces constitute formative identity- and community-building environments is more essential than ever. While acknowledging that many gamers have positive experiences, this project aims to understand, through a gender and intersectional lens, how socialisation processes coupled with exposure to harassment, hate-based discrimination and extreme content can potentially lower resilience to radicalisation in gaming and gaming-adjacent spaces. Governments are increasingly paying attention to this issue, considering regulatory requirements and effective intervention designs. This heightened awareness necessitates a deeper analysis of the nuances and complexities of the threats and risks. Therefore, this report aims to provide much-needed analysis of these issues, guiding the reader through the key research findings of the project ‘Examining Socialization with a Nexus to Radicalization Across Gaming (-Adjacent) Platforms Through a Gender Lens’, which was funded by Public Safety Canada, led by RUSI and implemented by a consortium of members of the Extremism and Gaming Research Network. Taking a cross-cultural global approach and drawing on primary survey data and data collected from and on multiple gaming and gaming-adjacent platforms, this project aims to provide accessible gender-sensitive research analysis, along with pragmatic recommendations for practitioners and policymakers engaged in these spaces. Following a conceptual framing section and a chapter outlining project scope and methodology, project analysis highlights the following four key analytical focuses: 1. An assessment of the prevalence of harmful, toxic and extremist content in gaming spaces. 2. Identification of the importance of (offline) identity and culture in the formation of gamer identity and communities. 3. Analysis of gender norms and dynamics in gaming communities and their potential exploitation for radicalisation and recruitment. 4. Exploration of where gendered socialisation processes combined with normalised exposure to extreme ideas and content can reduce resilience to radicalisation. Overall, this project adds new insights to the growing body of research on the topic of extremism and gaming through the gender and intersectional lens it applies to understanding the complex relationships between gaming, identity, community and radicalisation. Additionally, it breaks ground with the focus on cross-cultural data collection. However, it also highlights the need for further research to fully grasp how these dynamics play out across different contexts and identities, contributing to more nuanced and effective approaches to countering radicalisation in gaming spaces.

London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies RUSI, 2024. 81p.

By Rosie Cornish and Iain Brennan

Evidence for or against a causal effect of school exclusion on offending is inhibited by random allocation not being available on ethical grounds. To advance understanding of the connection between school exclusion and ofending—specifcally, serious violent ofending—we emulate a randomized controlled trial using a target trial framework and a linkage of national education and justice data. Across more than 20,000 matched pairs of excluded and not excluded children exclusion was associated with at least a doubling of risk for perpetrating serious violence (hazard ratio 2.05, 95% CI: 1.83, 2.29) and homicide/near-miss homicide (2.36, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.36) within 12 months of target trial entry. We discuss the implications of these findings for theory and policy in education and criminal justice as well as discussing the extent to which the observed relationships can be considered causal.

The British Journal of Criminology, 2025, 20p.

By Sharon DeGraw

While the connections between science fiction and race have largely been neglected by scholars, racial identity is a key element of the subjectivity constructed in American SF. In his Mars series, Edgar Rice Burroughs primarily supported essentialist constructions of racial identity, but also included a few elements of racial egalitarianism. Writing in the 1930s, George S. Schuyler revised Burroughs' normative SF triangle of white author, white audience, and white protagonist and promoted an individualistic, highly variable concept of race instead. While both Burroughs and Schuyler wrote SF focusing on racial identity, the largely separate genres of science fiction and African American literature prevented the similarities between the two authors from being adequately acknowledged and explored. Beginning in the 1960s, Samuel R. Delany more fully joined SF and African American literature. Delany expands on Schuyler's racial constructionist approach to identity, including gender and sexuality in addition to race. Critically intertwining the genres of SF and African American literature allows a critique of the racism in the science fiction and a more accurate and positive portrayal of the scientific connections in the African American literature. Connecting the popular fiction of Burroughs, the controversial career of Schuyler, and the postmodern texts of Delany illuminates a gradual change from a stable, essentialist construction of racial identity at the turn of the century to the variable, social construction of poststructuralist subjectivity today.

London; New York: Routledge, 2007.

Edited by Silvio Cruschina & Chiara Gianollo

Language is a key element in constructing and reinforcing social identities. Through hate speech, language becomes an instrument of creating and spreading stereotypes, discrimination, and social injustices based on attributes such as race, ethnicity, religion, gender, nationality, political ideology, disability, or sexual orientation. The rise of digital communication, especially social media, has made hate speech a major topic of research in various fields. An Investigation of Hate Speech in Italian analyses hate speech from a linguistic perspective. The focus is not only on lexical means, but also on more subtle grammatical and pragmatic strategies related to implicit meanings or conversational dynamics. The volume identifies the common linguistic characteristics of hate speech in different domains of communication and explores criteria that can help distinguish between hate speech and freedom of expression. The studies in this volume focus on Italian, but the methods and findings can easily be extended to other languages for comparative and contrastive purposes. The chapters utilize extensive research data. Social media platforms have provided linguistic data that would otherwise be challenging to collect and analyse systematically. The chapters allow readers to link linguistic insights to different real-world contexts, helping them understand the impact language has on various aspects of life and society.

Helsinki: Helsinki University Press, 2024. 384p.

By Daniel Rueda

The Rise of Nationalist Populism explores the intersection between populism and nationalism, conducted through the discursive analysis of three Populist Radical Right parties that have gained prominence during the 2010s: Rassemblement National (France), Lega (Italy) and Vox (Spain). Due to its rise in Europe, the United States, and further afield, there is a growing interest in right-wing populism, an exclusionary and illiberal form of populism that has been able to attain success in several countries. This book contributes to the analysis of how populism, understood as a way of constructing the political, is shaped by the ideologies that permeate it. It examines how a certain form of nationalism is shaped by populist dynamics, that is by a certain form of identity-building. The book analyses the intersection between nationalism and populism in right-wing populist parties by using a discourse analysis methodology based on Ernesto Laclau’s works, thus conducting an examination similar to the ones presented by the Essex School of Discourse Analysis. The empirical analysis focuses on party literature and carefully selected candidate speeches at a national level for its three case studies, as well as providing an overarching comparison. The book shows how the economic crisis and the irruption of issues related to sovereignty and national identity arising in France, Italy and Spain paved the way for the emergence of their respective right-wing populist forces. The book will appeal to researchers and students of political science,

Oxford, UK: Routledge, 2025. 274p.

By Fernanda Otilla

This book investigates how digital technologies, such as social media and artificial intelligence, can contribute to combatting corruption in Brazil. Brazil, with its long history of scandals and abundant empirical data on digital media usage, serves as a perfect case study to trace the development of bottom-up and top-down digital anti-corruption technologies and their main features. This book highlights the connections between anti-corruption reforms and the rapid implementation of innovative solutions, primarily developed by tech-savvy public officials and citizens committed to anti-corruption efforts. The book draws on interviews with experts, activists and civil servants, as well as open-source materials and social media data to identify key actors, their practices, challenges and limitations of anti-corruption technologies. The result is a thorough analysis of the process of digitalisation of anti-corruption in Brazil, with a theoretical framework which can also be applied to other countries. The book introduces the concept of “integrity techies” to encompass social and political actors who develop and facilitate anti-corruption technologies, and discusses different outcomes and issues associated with digital innovation in anti-corruption. This book will be a key resource for students, researchers and practitioners interested in technologies and development in Brazil and Latin America, as well as corruption and anti-corruption studies more broadly.

Oxford, UK: Routledge, 2025. 152p

Edited by Didier Bigo, Emma Mc Cluskey, and Félix Tréguer

This book adopts a critical lens to look at the workings of Western intelligence and intelligence oversight over time and space. Largely confined to the sub-field of intelligence studies, scholarly engagements with intelligence oversight have typically downplayed the violence carried out by secretive agencies. These studies have often served to justify weak oversight structures and promoted only marginal adaptations of policy frameworks in the wake of intelligence scandals. The essays gathered in this volume challenge the prevailing doxa in the academic field, adopting a critical lens to look at the workings of intelligence oversight in Europe and North America. Through chapters spanning across multiple disciplines – political sociology, history, and law – the book aims to recast intelligence oversight as acting in symbiosis with the legitimisation of the state’s secret violence and the enactment of impunity, showing how intelligence actors practically navigate the legal and political constraints created by oversight frameworks and practices, for instance by developing transnational networks of interdependence. The book also explores inventive legal steps and human rights mechanisms aimed at bridging some of the most serious gaps in existing frameworks, drawing inspiration from recent policy developments in the international struggle against torture. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, sociology, security studies, and international relations.

London; New York: Routledge, 2024. 311p.

By Justine Nolan and Samuel Pryde

Modern slavery in global supply chains is attracting increased attention from states, businesses and civil society including momentum to seek a "regulatory solution" to combatting it. In 2018, Australia introduced a Modern Slavery Act which was modelled on (in part) the UK Modern Slavery Act (2015). These laws emphasise corporate disclosure as the primary means of identifying and remedying modern slavery in supply chains. Whilst these disclosure-based laws harden the expectation that business will conduct itself responsibly, they are ultimately founded on a soft approach that assumes that the transparency gained from disclosure will incentivise corporate action to address human rights risks. Two independent reviews conducted in relation to the UK Act (in 2018) and the Australian law (in 2023) recommended significant changes to improve their regulatory effectiveness, including establishing a more ambitious enforcement model and a requirement to conduct human rights due diligence. This article considers the lessons learned since the establishment of the two modern slavery regimes, it explores the role of human rights due diligence in strengthening the current regulatory regimes and the efficacy of establishing a "failure to prevent" offence to enforce due diligence compliance. Finally, it discusses the utility of states adopting a forced labour import ban as a complementary regulatory strategy to contribute to a holistic regulatory framework to address modern slavery.

UNSW Law Research No. 24-37, 2024, 24p.

By Holly Nguyen, Kyle J. Thomas, Jennifer J. Tostlebe

Employment theoretically serves as a source of informal social control that can promote desistance from crime (Sampson & Laub, 1993). Findings from studies assessing the effects of employment, however, have been mixed. In a seminal study, Uggen (2000) reanalyzed data from the National Supported Work (NSW) Demonstration Project and found that employment significantly reduced the rate of recidivism among individuals aged 27 and older but had no impact on younger individuals. We reproduce and replicate Uggen's (2000) findings with data from four distinct employment programs: The National Supported Work Program (1975–1979), the Transitional Aid Research Project (1976–1977), the Employment Services for Ex-Offenders (1981–1984), and the Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ Center for Employment Opportunities (2004–2008). We closely reproduced Uggen's original findings in the NSW but found evidence that the statistically significant interaction between age and employment in the NSW was only present at the year 3 follow-up and the observed effect is highly sensitive to minor threats to internal validity. Furthermore, a significant age–employment interaction was not observed in the three other data sources. These findings should encourage scholars to continue to investigate the age-graded nature of employment and crime, especially through a sociohistorical lens.

Criminology, Volume61, Issue3, August 2023, Pages 449-481

By Prithika Balakrishnan

Incarceration has become the norm for those who assert their innocence. A staggering number of defendants are incarcerated prior to the adjudication of their cases—a reality that has become a central paradox of an American criminal justice system which holds axiomatic the presumption of innocence. Recent attempts to address pretrial mass incarceration through bail reform and the COVID-19 pandemic compassionate release programs have embraced digital surveillance, resulting in unintended and little-understood consequences. This Article examines how the expanded use of pretrial GPS surveillance is radically changing the presumption of innocence by implicating punitive measures absent constitutional protections and amplifying the racial disparities in our criminal justice system. Largely viewed as a substitution for physical detention and therefore a less onerous intrusion on a defendant’s liberty, pretrial GPS surveillance erodes fundamental liberties under the guise of criminal justice regulation. These highly racialized but invisible repercussions include harms to physical and psychological health, freedom of movement, privacy, and future economic self-determination. I argue that, in light of these substantial harms, courts must examine how they evaluate technological surveillance, affording defendants substantive and procedural due process protections where there currently are none. Part I of this Article charts the ways in which bail reform and the COVID-19 pandemic-related compassionate release programs have resulted in the expansion of pretrial GPS monitoring far beyond the footprint of physical incarceration. Part II, examining an empirical case study as a basis, details the specific and racialized harms imposed by technologically-mediated restraint. Part III offers a substantive and procedural due process framework for how courts should weigh these harms. Finally, I argue for a re-assessment of United States v. Salerno to recognize future dangerousness as a fundamentally racialized concept that, guided by increasingly sophisticated means of constant surveillance, oversteps the boundary between regulatory and punitive purposes.

71 UCLA L. Rev. 478 (2024), 61p.

By The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

  The Media Literacy Index, compiled in 2023 by the Open Society Institute, suggests that SouthEastern Europe (SEE) is among the most vulnerable regions in Europe to potential online harms. Violent extremist and terrorist groups exploit the internet to spread violent content, gain support, and recruit members. The COVID-19 pandemic saw a proliferation of hostile, sexist and xenophobic conspiracy theories, as highlighted by the UN Secretary-General in August 2022. Emerging studies find that media- and information literacy (MIL) can be useful for preventing the spread of mis- and disinformation and other harmful content online. OSCE Secretariat and field operations in the region have extensively worked on both preventing/ countering violent extremism and radicalization that lead to terrorism (P/CVERLT) and MIL. They have organized a number of activities, including workshops, training sessions, TV programmes and lectures for students – all designed in an effort to address the multi-faceted challenges posed by violent extremism and radicalization that lead to terrorism (VERLT) in the region, in line with OSCE’s comprehensive security approach, as well as to forge close collaborations with state authorities and civil society, in addition to partnering with the private sector in SEE. The first part of this report places the vulnerability to online harms in the context of broader MIL trends and challenges, with a particular focus on P/CVERLT. It highlights the multi-faceted challenges posed by disinformation – including polarization, radicalization to terrorist violence and threats to democracy – before outlining key technological and psychological challenges in addressing disinformation. The second part of the report analyses how these challenges are impacting SEE. Violent extremist groups remain resilient and adaptable, maintaining their audience, size despite repeated removals of their channels and accounts from the most popular online platforms in SEE. It also explores why SEE governments are struggling to respond to the current violent extremism environment,  highlighting media issues (including challenges around transparency, regulation and threats to journalists), the lack of effective and sustainable digital and media literacy education, failures of political leadership, and poor co-ordination among relevant stakeholders. The third part then examines the impact of existing media literacy campaigns, using the OSCE’s research and engagement with experts to identify what works and why. Different approaches – including inoculation theory, counter-narratives and technological approaches – are explored, while also explaining how they can be used to address issues such as confirmation bias and how they can be integrated into age-sensitive MIL approaches. The final part of the report provides substantive recommendations for all stakeholders on framing and communication. It also suggests content and format for a multi-stakeholder training curriculum, including methodology and design as well as strategies for avoiding backlash. The report concludes that, while there are numerous resources and initiatives on addressing the information disorder5 and aiming to foster medial literacy skills, there is a significant gap in connecting these efforts to projects focused on P/CVERLT. This report represents the beginning of an initiative that seeks to raise awareness of critical thinking and analysis, and meaningful engagement in the digital space, in order to build resilience to VERLT. Its follow-up project ‘INFORMED: Information and Media Literacy in Preventing Violent Extremism. Human rights and Gender-sensitive approaches to addressing the Digital Information Disorder’ seeks to support the OSCE participating States in identifying opportunities for collaboration with non-government stakeholders, including the private sector and civil society.    

Vienna:   Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, 2024. 60p.

By NINA-SIMONE EDWARDS

What would the future look like if the privacy invasions that Black Americans are currently subjected to were not so normalized? This Note brings an Afrofuturistic perspective to the analysis of Terry stops, putting forward an alternative legal paradigm that uplifts Black Americans, their privacy, and their experiences, rather than police practices. Part I of this Note looks to the past, drawing on Afrofuturism’s tenant of reclamation, and assesses the development of vagrancy laws. Under these laws, vague legal standards allowed law enforcement to criminalize Black people after the end of slavery, punishing those who fell outside of the “white box,” or the social norms ascribed to whiteness. This threat of state violence swallowed any meaningful expectation of privacy, carrying forward the legacy of enslavement. Part II then discusses the similarities between the violations of privacy found in vagrancy laws and violations of privacy found in the use of Terry stops today. Terry stops, and the resulting threat of constant surveillance, have changed how Black Americans navigate public space. Like the vague standards in vagrancy laws, the requirement of “reasonable suspicion” to conduct a stop is weaponized by law enforcement to punish those outside of the “white box.” Further, this Note argues that the current Constitutional threshold for assessing whether state action violates the Fourth Amendment—whether someone has a reasonable expectation of privacy—is defcient. It too is a function of the “white box,” and fails to account for the Black American experience. Moreover, use of this standard maintains the status quo and fails to guarantee actual privacy. Part III then envisions what the law could look like under Afrofuturism; a future where we actually work to address the systemic harms imposed by Terry stops.

GEO. J. L. & MOD. CRIT. RACE PERSP. [Vol. 15:157, 2023., 29p.

By Paddy Kinyera

Uganda’s emerging oil industry could paradoxically undermine its socioeconomic development. This is because of opportunities for corruption, including in project expenditure, procurement, land acquisition, and revenue collection. The government has introduced several anti-corruption measures and other initiatives are attempting to maximise the industry’s benefits while limiting its socioeconomic costs. Further collective actions across government, civil society, and the international community are needed to limit corruption’s impacts.

  Main points ▪ Corruption remains a real threat to the oil industry as it is deeply entrenched in the country’s political economy, affecting every sector. ▪ Generally, corruption has become a lucrative venture in Uganda, operated by ‘gainful concealment’. ▪ The oil industry offers rich ground for corruption, as evidenced to date by cases arising from project implementation by private firms. ▪ As part of institutional measures to guard the oil industry against corruption, the government created the Petroleum Fund within the Public Finance Management Act (2015) to prevent mismanagement of oil revenues. ▪ Existing institutions and structures are mainly constrained by bureaucracy, unresponsiveness, disjointed operations, and limits to legal mandates.   

U4 ISSUE 2024:7   

Bergen: U4 Anti-Corruption Resource Centre , Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), 2024. 28p.

By Sara Rahman

AIM To evaluate the impact of the first phase of the Mandatory Alcohol Interlock Program (MAIP), introduced in NSW in February 2015, on repeat drink-driving, driving while disqualified, traffic infringements, and crash outcomes. METHOD We use a dataset of 98,501 observations involving offenders with a proven ‘exceed the prescribed concentration of alcohol’ (PCA) offence or a ‘refuse to provide a breath sample’ offence finalised in a NSW court between 1 June 2012 and 30 April 2018. We identify the impact of taking up an alcohol interlock on reoffending and road crashes using a regression discontinuity design. This analysis compares outcomes for first-time PCA offenders in a small bandwidth on either side of the high range blood alcohol concentration (BAC) threshold of .15. We also estimate the overall impact of the introduction of MAIP on drink driving and road crashes using a difference-in-differences approach. This compares outcomes for eligible and ineligible offenders before and after the introduction of the program. We implement a range of robustness checks and analyse outcomes for various groups of offenders, including those receiving different interlock periods, and those with different demographic characteristics and criminal histories. RESULTS MAIP reduced the likelihood of drink driving during the interlock period for first-time high range PCA offenders who start the program by 11 percentage points (p.p.; a reduction of 86%) compared to mid range offenders just below the high range PCA threshold. We also observe reductions in PCA offending within 36 months of finalisation (of 3.4 p.p.; 43%) and within 60 months of finalisation (of 6.0 p.p.; 43%) among all eligible offenders compared to offenders committing eligible offences before the program’s introduction. The program reduces traffic infringements committed after court finalisation, but these effects are concentrated among repeat low range PCA drink drivers. We do not find significant effects of the program on reducing the likelihood of involvement in an alcohol-related crash nor on crashes resulting in injuries and fatalities. The reductions in PCA offending are particularly large for offenders convicted of the most severe offences (i.e., repeat high range drink driving and repeat refuse to provide a breath sample offenders), those residing in disadvantaged areas, and to a lesser extent, those residing outside major cities. CONCLUSION Alcohol interlocks significantly reduce drink driving while interlocks are active and (to a modest extent) following their removal.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 251), Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. 2022. 35p.

By Thomas: Abt., Mills, M., Magori, G.    

Cognitive behavioral interventions (CBIs) have emerged as a key evidence-informed strategy for saving lives and stopping violence. Despite a strong scientific track record, the capacity to scale these strategies remains limited. During Fall 2024, the Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction brought together leading academics, on-the-ground practitioners, key government officials, and interested funders to discuss why. To implement CBI strategies effectively, six practices were identified as essential. First, successful CBIs employ practical tools and strategies that are proven to work. Second, they utilize street outreach workers with a high degree of cultural responsivity. Third, these organizations employ “relentless engagement” to connect high risk individuals to treatment and services. Fourth, they offer extensive training to their employees, both so they may utilize CBI tools and teach them to others. Fifth, they are flexible, adapting models to real world conditions. Sixth and finally, successful CBIs support and invest in their workers - their most valuable asset. Implementation best practices like these can be challenging for a number of reasons. First, those who are most in need are often the most resistant to these services, making it imperative that outreach workers leverage their credibility to find creative ways to connect with prospective participants. Second, negative peer influences can hinder participants from drawing on CBI tools in critical situations. Third, substance use and mental health issues pose significant challenges to program participants. Fourth, all elements of proper implementation are not yet fully understood. While a solid base of evidence supports CBI strategies, they still require further development and study. Trauma, if left unaddressed, can also impede the effective implementation of CBIs. Trauma Informed care can provide a basic framework for support while healing-centered engagement can further promote healing, a sense of belonging and self-determination, and empowerment to achieve post-traumatic growth. CBIs should focus not only on treating the trauma of program participants, but also that of program staff. To successfully scale CBIs, a number of strategies were recommended. CBIs must be cost effective, although even the most expensive approaches more than justify themselves in terms of social return on investment. CBIs must also secure consistent funding, increasing their capacity to access governmental and nongovernmental resources. Increased professionalization is necessary for sustainable and scalable CBI interventions. Finally, while a strong base of evidence supports CBI strategies, further research and study is necessary, especially with regard to implementation. In conclusion, CBIs continue to demonstrate effectiveness in reducing community violence, particularly when attention is paid to best practices. Continued investment is necessary to advance the field while growing it at the same time.   

College Park, MD:  Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction University of Maryland,  2025.  25p.