Does New York’s Bail Reform Law Impact Recidivism? A Quasi-Experimental Test in New York City
By René Ropac and Michael Rempel
This report examines the impact of New York’s bail reform law on recidivism in New York City. We sought to produce a credible analysis of the impact of releasing people under reform who would have otherwise faced bail or pretrial detention.
Key Findings:
Eliminating bail for most misdemeanor and nonviolent felony charges reduced recidivism. There were reductions for any re-arrest (44% vs. 50%) and felony re-arrest (24% vs. 27%) over two years.
For people remaining legally eligible for bail (most of whom were charged with violent felony offenses), reducing the use of bail through measures such as supervised release expansion or requiring judges to set the least restrictive condition did not affect recidivism in either direction.
The 2020 amendments targeted a specific subgroup of people whose re-arrest rates had increased under the original reforms.
Beyond the aforementioned overall takeaways, bail reform had varying recidivism effects depending on people’s charges and recent criminal history.
New York: Data Collaborative for Justice, 2023. 56p.