Is Bail Reform Causing an Increase in Crime?

By Don Stemen and David Olson

  In response to widely voiced criticism that monetary bail imposes an unfair burden on poor defendants, many of whom remain in jail because they are unable to acquire the money for bail, numerous jurisdictions—cities, counties, and states—have enacted changes in pretrial practices and policy intended to reduce or eliminate the use of bail. Although under long-established practices and policies most defendants required to post bail eventually do so, critics of these reforms contend that they endanger the public by allowing arrestees to remain at liberty while awaiting trial, leading to substantial increases in crime. To assess these arguments, we considered eleven bail-reform jurisdictions to determine the effect, if any, of these policy changes on crime. Violent crime trends after reforms present no clear or obvious pattern in these jurisdictions. In six places, violent crime decreased in the year after reforms. In all these instances, it decreased more than the national average did in that year, or it decreased while the national average increased. In four jurisdictions, violent crime increased while the national average decreased in the same year….

New York: Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation , 2023. 23p.