Can criminal justice be predicted? Using regression analysis to predict judges’ decisions on petitions for new criminal trials

By Moa Lidén

Predictability of legal decisions is usually considered a prerequisite for the rule of law, following the maxim ‘like cases should be treated alike’. Yet, this presupposes that the case outcome can be predicted based on the merits of the case, rather than other factors. The purpose of this study was to test whether and to what extent legal decisions on petitions for new criminal trials can be predicted on the basis of other fairly superficial criteria that one could access without even reading the case file, e.g. which Court decided, whether the applicant had legal representation etc. To this end, all petitions for new criminal trials submitted to the Swedish Supreme Court and the six Courts of Appeal in the time period 2010–2020 (n = 3915) were reviewed. This data formed the basis of a regression model which was then used to predict decisions regarding petitions in 2021. On the basis of access to legal representation and crime type, the regression model predicted accurately 100 % of the decisions made in 2021. This raises questions about the evidentiary basis for the decisions and also the role of judges in situations where their decisions are fully predictable.

Science & Justice Volume 64, Issue 1, 2024