From First Offense to Future Arrests: The Impact of Probation on Youth

By Travis McIntyre

A new study by The Pew Charitable Trusts shows that young people assigned to probation after their first offense are more likely to be rearrested in the future, particularly for technical violations, than their peers diverted away from probation. The study, based on data provided by the Texas Juvenile Justice Department (TJJD) and analyzed by researchers at The Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center and Pew, suggests that diverting more youth from probation could improve justice system efficiency and public safety outcomes. Background Past research has shown that young people removed from their homes have higher likelihoods of future rearrest—and of arrest for more severe offenses—than similarly situated youth supervised in their communities instead.1 These findings spurred a major change in state youth justice policy over the last two decades that shifted the balance from out-of-home placements toward community supervision.2 However, more recent research has suggested that youth who are formally processed and supervised are more likely to be rearrested in the future than comparable youth who receive diversion from formal prosecution.3 New research from Pew builds on this work by examining rearrest rates among statistically similarly Texas youth assigned to probation versus diversion. The study looks at arrests for both new offenses and technical violations, as research suggests that arrests for technical violations do not have a deterrent effect, may increase subsequent offending, and can contribute to an overrepresentation of youth of color in the juvenile justice system 

New York: The Council of State Governments Justice Center, 2024. 3p.