Estimating the Effectiveness of the High Intensity Program Units on Reoffending

By Min-Taec Kim

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of participating in a program through a High Intensity Program Unit (HIPU) on reoffending, violent reoffending and reimprisonment within 3, 6 and 12 months of leaving custody. METHOD We estimate the impact of the HIPUs on reoffending, violent reoffending and reimprisonment within 3, 6 and 12 months of leaving custody by conducting three different comparisons between people who were identified as eligible for the program: 1. Comparing individuals by program status (Did not start, Started but did not complete, Finished); 2. Comparing individuals by the number of therapeutic hours received at a HIPU, regardless of program status; 3. Comparing individuals using variation in therapeutic hours recieved, restricted to just those who exited due to “insufficient time”. We use regression models across all analyses to adjust for observable differences between individuals. The key threat to our estimates is selection bias, which could be caused by unobserved differences between those starting and/or completing a program through the HIPUs and those who do not. The first two comparisons are (possibly) biased towards a higher estimate, while the third comparison attempts to avoid this bias by leveraging variation in time left to serve.

(Crime and Justice bulletin No. 250), Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.  2022. 22p.