How Do Overconfidence and Other Behavioral Biases Affect Gun Ownership and Safety?

 By Fernando G. Cafferata, Patricio Domínguez, and Carlos Scartascini.

Amidst increasing gun violence and debates around gun control, understanding the psychological factors influencing gun ownership is crucial. Countries in the Americas differ significantly in terms of gun violence rates, gun control laws, and cultural attitudes towards firearms, providing a varied setting for exploring how individual biases interact with societal norms and regulatory frameworks to influence 

This study probes the intersection of overcon f idence—a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate their knowledge or capabilities— and attitudes towards gun ownership and use. A novel online survey of over 7,000 individuals in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and the United States was undertaken to measure overconfidence using both overestimation and overplacement indices, comparing subjects’ perceived abilities against actual performance and societal averages. The survey probed respondents' stances on who should carry weapons and their likely reactions in various crime scenarios, offering insights into the psychological factors influencing gun-related attitudes and preferences. 

The results indicate a strong correlation between overconfidence and the propensity to accept and use guns. Overconfidence, quantified through overestimation and overplacement, was found to be significantly associated with a greater likelihood of endorsing gun ownership and carrying. Statistically, an increase in over confidence indices corresponded to heightened approval for weapon carrying among different societal roles, including police, private guards, and ordinary citizens. As shown in the figure, an increase of one standard deviation on the overestimation index is associated with an average increase of between 0.03 and 0.06 standard deviations in the four outcome variables related to weapons carrying (police, security guards, citizens at home, and citizens in the street). These increments are all statistically significant. In other words, the higher a person overestimates his or her performance in answering general knowledge questions, the more he or she agrees that police, private guards, and citizens should carry weapons. Similarly, the principal component of overplacement is always positively correlated and statistically significant. A one standard deviation increase in overplacement increases between 0.04 and 0.07 standard deviations in all four outcome variables related to carrying weapons. This means that people who overplace themselves are more prone to accept gun own ership and carrying. The analysis additionally revealed that individu als with higher overconfidence are more inclined to declare that they would use guns when con fronting criminals and more likely to resist bur glary or robbery attempts. The findings under score that overconfidence is not just a personal Trait but significantly shapes societal attitudes to wards gun handling, ownership, and usage. This behavioral trait’s correlation with gun-related attitudes suggests that overconfidence could lead to preferences for less regulation and great er gun prevalence, potentially impacting public safety and legislative processes. The study’s ro bust results held across various analytical specifi cations, highlighting the strong predictive pow er of overconfidence on gun preferences.       

Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank