GERMAN PLANS FOR THE NEXT WAR
By J. B. W. Gardiner
J. B. W. Gardiner’s German Plans for the Next War stands as a striking historical artifact and a warning. Written in the years following the First World War, this book represents not merely a record of military ambitions and strategic foresight, but also a chilling reminder of how nations, even when defeated, may never truly lay down their arms in spirit. Gardiner sought to expose what he regarded as the continuing German military mindset—a culture that, rather than abandoning war after the devastation of 1914–1918, appeared to him to be laying the intellectual and institutional groundwork for another, even greater conflict.
The book must be read in the context of its time. Published in an era when the Allied powers hoped the Versailles Treaty had secured peace, Gardiner’s research suggested otherwise. He observed that German generals, strategists, and political leaders were already imagining how to overcome the limitations imposed upon them. He highlighted the persistence of doctrines, the careful cultivation of future officers, and the intellectual determination to turn defeat into a temporary setback rather than a permanent condition. In this respect, Gardiner’s work was both a study in military planning and a diagnosis of political psychology: it warned that humiliation often breeds vengeance, and that nations denied overt military power will often channel their energies into hidden preparation.
From today’s perspective, Gardiner’s warnings seem prophetic. Barely two decades after the publication of this book, Germany under Adolf Hitler plunged Europe into the Second World War. Many of the tendencies Gardiner identified—the rejection of defeat, the cultivation of military thought despite disarmament, the hunger for revision of borders and prestige—proved to be more than passing fears. His analysis reminds us that ideologies of militarism, when not dismantled but merely suppressed, can return with renewed force.
Yet the significance of German Plans for the Next War extends beyond the German case. In 2025, Gardiner’s study forces us to ask uncomfortable questions about our own world. What happens when nations suffer defeat or humiliation but retain the intellectual, cultural, or economic drive to reassert themselves? Can peace treaties and international institutions alone guarantee stability, or must the underlying forces of militarism, nationalism, and strategic ambition be confronted directly? These questions resonate in a time of shifting global power balances, renewed territorial disputes, and technological arms races.
The book also underscores a broader lesson about vigilance. International observers in the 1920s might have dismissed Gardiner’s warnings as exaggerated, even alarmist. Many wanted to believe that the League of Nations and economic reconstruction would prevent future wars. Yet history vindicated the cautionary voice. For us today, amid conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, Gardiner’s work suggests the danger of complacency. Strategic planning for war often takes place long before the world notices; by the time it becomes visible, it may be too late.
In revisiting Gardiner’s German Plans for the Next War, readers confront both the legacy of the First World War and a timeless warning about the persistence of military ambition. The book invites us to think critically about the conditions under which peace can be preserved, the role of foresight in international affairs, and the perennial truth that the seeds of future wars are often sown in the aftermath of present ones. Its enduring significance lies not only in its accurate anticipation of history, but in its reminder that vigilance, understanding, and courage are as necessary to preserve peace in the twenty-first century as they were in the twentieth.