Dating hot spot to fraud hot spot: Targeting the social characteristics of fraud victims in England and Wales

By Richard Sinclair, Matthew Bland, Bradley Savage

We found that romance fraud was rising year-on-year across every region in England and Wales, increasing 55% during the 3 years between October 2018 and October 2021. Fifty percent of all the romance fraud victims in the period resided in 17% of the places where romance fraud had occurred. A total of 439 locations (outward postcode areas) were identified as the “power few” in the first year of the data set. Of these 439 locations, 162 of them recurred in both of the following years, becoming chronic “hot spot” locations containing more than one in six of all reported romance fraud victims. The demography of victims in repeat locations differed considerably, but hot spots were more frequently predominantly populated by less affluent populations. We conclude that the current national one-size-fits-all fraud prevention approach may not be the most efficient or effective way to reach those victims who most require crime prevention advice. The National Fraud Intelligence Bureau, based in the City of London Police, could adopt a tailored approach to providing preventative information to local police forces based on the year-to-year patterns in crime and the associated intelligence provided by sociodemographic data sources such as Acorn.

Criminology & Public Policy Volume 22, Issue 4: Cybercrime and Cybersecurity Nov 2023 Pages 585-894