BROKEN AMBITIONS: The Global Struggle to Halve Violent Deaths by 2030

By Gianluca Boo and Gergely Hideg

Overview The year 2021 saw a concerning increase in global violent death rates after the relative calm of the Covid-19 pandemic era. While violent deaths in 2020 reached a historic low since 2004, 2021 marked a global increase of six per cent, halting the previous trend of improvement. Intentional homicides remained stable, comprising two-thirds of all violent deaths, while conflict-related deaths surged, especially in Afghanistan and Myanmar, due to political upheavals. Firearms played a significant role— accounting for about 45 percent of global violent deaths— albeit less than in previous years. Men disproportionately bore the brunt of violence, with death rates more than five times higher than those of women. Geographic patterns also revealed stark disparities. Asia and Africa exhibited the highest violent death rates, and regions such as Europe and Oceania experienced the lowest levels. Forecasts for the 2030 horizon suggest a need for concerted efforts to prevent violence, as the ‘business-as-usual’ analysis —assuming that current trends remain—projects a continued increase in deadly violence. Key findings The year 2021 saw a concerning six per cent rise in global deadly violence compared to 2020. Of the approximately 580,000 violent deaths, about 45 per cent were inflicted by firearms. Violence overwhelmingly and disproportionately affected men, with a rate of 12.27 victims per 100,000 population among men and boys versus 2.33 for women and girls. Compared to the 2015 benchmark of Agenda 2030, the number of intentional homicides has decreased by only 2.6 per cent. Just over a quarter of the world’s countries and territories are currently on track to meet SDG Target 16.1. Current trends suggest the world will miss this target by 2030. The year 2020 marked a high point in progress towards reducing violent deaths. From a rate of 7.0 violent deaths per 100,000 population that year, rates have since exhibited an upward trend, reaching 7.3 in 2021 and on track to reach 7.6 by 2030.

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 20p.