Did raising the school leaving age reduce crime? Evidence from NSW

By Steve Yeong

AIM To determine whether the Education Amendment Act 2009 (NSW), which raised the Minimum School Leaving Age (MSLA) from 15 to 17 from 2010 onwards, had an impact on crime. METHOD We use four datasets in this study: birth records from the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages; educational attainment records from the NSW Education Standards Authority; crime data from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research; and aggregate statistics from the Survey of Education and Work administered by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These data enable us to compare the first cohort of students affected by the amendment with the last cohort of students unaffected by the amendment in a Regression Discontinuity Design. The specific outcomes we examine include: the probability of at least one proven offence between the ages of 15 and 24; the probability of at least one proven violent, property or drug offence between those ages; and whether a student completed Grades 10 - 12. RESULTS The amendment increased the probability of a boy completing Grades 10 and 11 by 1 –2 percentage points. The amendment had no impact on the probability of a boy completing Grade 12, and no impact on educational attainment for girls. We also find the amendment had no impact on the probability of an individual committing a violent crime, property crime, drug crime or crime of any type between the ages of 15 and 24. CONCLUSION The amendment had no discernible impact on crime. This is likely the result of the fact that almost 90 percent of 17 year olds were already meeting the requirements set out under the amendment prior to its ntroduction. For that reason, the amendment had limited scope to influence education or criminal justice outcomes.