Radial Rule: A New Map for Space, Power and Control in the Sahel

By Peer Schouten & James Barnett

Conflict maps often depict who controls what territory, with the Sahel frequently shown as divided among jihadists, bandits and militias. Yet such maps obscure how armed groups actually operate. We propose a more nuanced model that distinguishes core areas of presence, areas of tribute extraction, and raiding frontiers – capturing how these actors interact with communities in varied and shifting ways. Why maps matter Conflict maps of Nigeria show a worrying picture: virtually the whole national territory is under control of some non-state armed actor. Boko Haram controls the northeast, jihadists and bandits the northwest, and they are divided from the separatists in the south by a belt that is under the sway of farmer and herder militias.1 The rest of the Sahel doesn’t fare much better, with vast swathes of territory typically marked as under the control of armed groups.

While perhaps useful to raise the alarm on the often-dire humanitarian situation in these areas, such maps convey a treacherously wrong impression of how armed actors interact with communities across space.3 The Sahel is a huge, often sparsely settled space, in most of which it makes no sense for armed groups (or states for that matter) to try and establish a permanent presence – particularly given the oftenmodest capacities most groups dispose of.4 This dissonance is important, because policy is made and public opinions are shaped based on maps.motorbikes, typically just before planting and around harvest time, to extract their due. Because farmers are mostly left alone the rest of the year, this is hardly captured by the permanent and exclusive territorial control suggested by conventional maps.

Current conflict maps exaggerate the extent of armed group control by equating sporadic violence with territorial control. This misrepresentation risks distorting threat assessments and misguiding humanitarian and security interventions. The proposed radial model offers a more precise tool for policy and programming. By distinguishing between areas of direct control, tribute extraction and episodic raiding, it helps target interventions to where communities are most vulnerable or most governed by non-state actors. This spatial framework is relevant to conflicts across the Sahel, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. Redrawing the maps of these conflicts, based on how armed groups actually interact with populations, can enable more context-sensitive strategies, be they for peacebuilding, civilian protection or engagement with local actors.

Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). 2025. 5p.