By Rebecca Pfeffer, Melissa M. Labriola, Lynn Langton, Duren Banks, Dulani Woods, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Brian A. Jackson

Human trafficking is a complex and nuanced social problem that continues to be difficult to combat in the United States and around the world. The lack of understanding of how many people experience trafficking is a pervasive issue with implications for resource allocation, policy response, and intervention programming. Over the years, there have been many attempts to determine the prevalence of trafficking; however, the hidden nature of such exploitation continues to be problematic. Measuring the prevalence of trafficking may have utility for practitioners and other key stakeholders who are assessing the level of need and resources necessary to engage in outreach, prevention, and intervention with suspected or identified victims. However, there is neither a clearly defined set of indicators that have utility for measuring prevalence nor a standard practice for using prevalence studies to fill information gaps that can improve service provision. This report presents findings and recommendations from an expert workshop that focused on the type and level of information (national, state, local) related to the prevalence and characteristics of trafficking that are most useful for practitioners working with trafficking survivors. The workshop culminated in the creation of a prioritized list of the key gaps in understanding the scope of labor and sex trafficking, solutions to begin to fill those gaps, and key indicators that should be considered as part of a broader effort to better classify types of trafficking.

Key Findings

• There is a lack of consensus on indicators and definitions of trafficking.

• Prevalence estimates are aggregate; disaggregation is important for better understanding risk (e.g., to inform instrument and sample design).

• There is limited focus on how prevalence estimates can be used to assess the effectiveness of various interventions and preventions.

• Prevalence is measured without any discussion of what to do with those estimates or how to use them to better serve people who experience trafficking.

• Different industries, populations, political landscapes, and forms of exploitation require different methodologies for estimating prevalence.

• Implicit bias is a problem for reporting, identification, recruiting, data collection, and service provision (e.g., some practitioners know to look for white female victims only).

Recommendations

• Establish and validate a standard set of indicators and then apply those indicators to legal definitions of trafficking.

• Create a guide with best practices on instrument design, sampling approaches, testing, open data, and dissemination practices to allow for appropriate disaggregation (while protecting privacy).

• Encourage funders and researchers to gather information during the prevalence stage that can be applied to programs, interventions, and subsequent effectiveness assessments.

• Recommend that research funders and researchers use, at a minimum, a co-creation model, but, ideally, they should use a rigorous community-based participatory action research approach.

• Establish, design, and co-create the research design and implementation with researchers and the affected community (including those with lived experience).

• Ensure that prevalence research includes underrepresented subpopulations by using designs that employ community-based approaches that will identify diverse perspectives in communities.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2024. 20p.

By Leslie M. Barnard, Rachel L. Johnson, Sara Brandspigel, Lauren A. Rooney, Megan McCarthy, Frederick P. Rivara, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Christopher E. Knoepke, Ryan A. Peterson & Marian E. Betz 

Background: Temporary, voluntary storage of firearms away from the home is a recommended option for individuals with a risk of suicide, but it may also be used in other situations (e.g., long trips). Prior work has explored the availability of storage options and the views of storage locations. Little is known about out-of-home storage practices among those who live in homes with firearms (including owners).

Methods: We surveyed English-speaking adults (18 or older) in two states (Colorado and Washington) living in a home with a firearm (June-July 2021).

Results: Among the final sample of 1029, most respondents were white (88.1%) and non-Hispanic (85.0%); half were female (50.8%), and the most common age group was ages 35-44 (25.5%). Just over one quarter (27.3%) of respondents indicated they had stored a firearm away from their home/car/garage in the last 5 years. The place most respondents said they were somewhat or very likely to consider was at a family member’s home (62.7%) or at a self-storage facility (52.5%).

Conclusion: Out-of-home firearm storage is a relatively common practice and endorsed by many gun owners, suggesting out-of-home storage is feasible for firearm owners as an approach to suicide prevention.

Inj Epidemiol. 2023 Mar 13;10(1):15. doi: 10.1186/s40621-023-00426-9. PMID: 36915179; PMCID: PMC10012481.

By Marc L. Swatt, Craig D. Uchida, Anna M. Goedert, and Alese Wooditch

Gun violence remains a challenging problem for law enforcement agencies across the country. According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC, 2023), there were 20,958 firearm homicide deaths across the United States in 2021 resulting in a rate of 6.3 per 100,000 residents. This rate understates the problem, as the risk for firearm homicide is not evenly distributed and certain segments of the population have a considerably higher risk of firearm homicide victimization. For example, for 15-19-year-old Black males, the rate of firearm homicide death is 98.9 per 100,000 residents and for 20-24-year-old Black males, the rate is 134.4 per 100,000 residents (CDC, 2023). Further, firearm homicide is concentrated within impoverished areas within cities (Kravitz-Wirtz, Bruns, Aubel, Zhang, & Buggs, 2022). Recent research suggests that firearm violence has increased in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic (Kegler, Simon, Zwald, Chen, Mercy, Jones, et al. 2022; McDonald, Mohler, & Brantingham, 2022). While the causes of firearm homicide are complex and involve both risk and protective factors (see American Psychological Association, 2013; Gaylord-Harden, Alli, Davis-Stober, & Henderson, 2022; Mattson, Sigel, & Mercado, 2020; Pardini, Beardslee, Docherty, Shubert, & Mulvey, 2020), there are strategies that law enforcement can adopt to reduce the prevalence of firearm violence (see Braga, Turchan, Papachristos, & Hureau, 2019; Braga, Weisburd, & Turchan, 2019; Uchida & Swatt, 2013). Recently, law enforcement agencies have sought to leverage forensic evidence from gun discharge events to improve gun violence suppression efforts. Traditionally, firearm forensic evidence – namely retrieved firearms and spent casings – were used mainly to enhance prosecutorial efforts at obtaining convictions. However, by rapidly entering and retrieving information from the ATF’s National Integrated Ballistics Information Network (NIBIN) and electronic gun tracing database (eTrace), law enforcement can proactively use this information to identify linkages between seemingly disparate cases to apprehend likely shooters and disrupt gun trafficking networks (see Pierce, Braga, Hyatt, & Koper, 2004). To maximize the efficacy of this strategy, several agencies have been adopting coordinated interagency firearm enforcement programs – Crime Gun Intelligence Centers. The Baltimore Police Department (BPD) is one of 46 agencies across the country that received funding from the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) to set up a CGIC. In 2018, BPD planned its CGIC and over the next five years implemented key components of it. Justice & Security Strategies, Inc. (JSS) served as the research partner on the grant and evaluated the program. This report details the results of this evaluation effort. In this chapter, we first discuss the CGIC concept, how CGICs can decrease gun violence and the results of CGIC evaluations. In the second chapter, we discuss the City of Baltimore, the BPD, the implementation of CGIC, and the unique challenges facing this implementation to provide context for our findings. In the third chapter, we discuss the results of the process evaluation for CGIC and discuss CGIC activities,  challenges, and successes. The fourth chapter presents the results of the impact evaluation and examines whether CGIC was successful at reducing violent gun crime. The final chapter provides additional discussion of the conclusions of this research and provides several recommendations to BPD for the continuation of CGIC. 

Los Angeles: Justice & Security Strategies, 2024. 123p.

By Christopher Koper | Heather Vovak | Brett Cowell 

This study presents an evaluation of the Crime Gun Intelligence Center (CGIC) initiative in Milwaukee conducted by a research partner team from the National Police Foundation and George Mason University. The report covers the operations and impacts of the CGIC program from 2014 through 2017. The first part of the report documents the CGIC program as it operated during the study period. The heart of the CGIC initiative involves systematic collection and analysis of ballistics evidence collected from both crime scenes and test fires of recovered firearms. This ballistics evidence is scanned into the National Integrated Ballistics Information Network (NIBIN) administered by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF). Scanning ballistics evidence into NIBIN enables analysts to compare images of ballistics evidence across cases nationwide to identify gun crimes that may have involved the same firearm (based on unique markings that firearms make on fired shell casings and bullets). This helps investigators to identify crimes that are likely to have been committed by the same offender or by offenders who used the same firearm. Teams of detectives, analysts, and other staff from MPD, ATF, and other partner agencies use these leads to prioritize, inform, and target gun crime investigations and prosecutions. The second part of the report presents three series of analyses conducted by the Milwaukee CGIC’s research partners to assess the potential and actual impacts of the CGIC initiative on gun-related investigations and gun crime in Milwaukee. All of these analyses focus in particular on the outcomes of NIBIN testing and the value of NIBIN-related evidence in solving gun-related investigations and reducing gun crime. The first set of analyses examined the scope and nature of interconnected gun crimes in Milwaukee. The CGIC program targets repeat shooters and networks of offenders responsible for multiple gunfire incidents through the sharing of firearms. As a first step in evaluating the impacts of the program, the research team sought to determine how much of Milwaukee’s gun violence is attributable to such offenders using data from CGIC case files and the MPD’s records management system (RMS). This portion of the study helped to define the scope of the problem targeted by the CGIC program and illuminate the program’s strategic value as a tool for improving gun crime investigations and reducing gun crime. It also illustrates the value of NIBIN testing as an analytical tool to improve the understanding of gun crime in the city. The next series of analyses examined the impact of NIBIN testing on the outcomes of gun-related investigations in Milwaukee. In principle, the CGIC program, and NIBIN testing in particular, should produce leads that help investigators solve gunfire-related crimes that might otherwise go unsolved. The research team thus examined the outcomes of NIBIN-related investigations and the role that NIBIN evidence played in these investigations using information extracted from NIBIN-related case files. In addition, the research team used data from MPD’s RMS to examine  whether the CGIC program has improved overall case closure rates for gunfire-related crimes since its major launch in 2014. Finally, the third set of analyses investigated whether NIBIN-related enforcement activity has reduced gun crime in Milwaukee. If the CGIC program is successful in targeting the most active shooters and networks in the city, then the program could produce significant incapacitation and deterrence effects that reduce the city’s overall level of shooting incidents. This was examined through a time series analysis of trends in NIBIN-related arrests and shootings (fatal and nonfatal) across Milwaukee’s police districts from 2011 through 2017. In summary, the evaluation suggests that the CGIC program in Milwaukee has high strategic value in targeting the city’s gun violence prevention efforts. Ballistics evidence generated through NIBIN testing is helping the MPD focus on repeat shooters and networks of active offenders who account for roughly half of fatal and non-fatal shootings in Milwaukee. Hence, the CGIC program has a high ceiling for its potential to reduce gun crime. NIBIN-related evidence is also helping investigators identify and apprehend more suspects in gun crime investigations. This does not mean that NIBIN evidence is a cure-all for investigating gun crime; cases with NIBIN links do not always produce arrests, nor is NIBIN evidence always critical to closing cases when it is available. Greater coordination and effort focused on NIBIN-related cases have also contributed to better outcomes for these investigations. On balance, nonetheless, systematic collection and analysis of ballistics evidence appears to be a useful strategy for solving cases and illuminating active shooters for further investigation. NIBIN-related evidence and the CGIC investigative process appear to have been particularly helpful for improving the investigation of non-fatal shootings. After an initial decline in clearances for these crimes in 2014 (due likely to a surge in gun violence throughout the city), they have been increasing during the years of the CGIC initiative. By some measures, clearances for nonfatal shootings in 2017 (the last year studied) were better than those before the program, even though gun violence levels were considerably lower during the pre-program years. Further, these recent improvements have been due specifically to improvements in clearances of cases with NIBIN-related evidence. Finally, the study provides tentative indications that NIBIN-related arrests have reduced shootings. These findings were not definitive. However, it was difficult to conduct a rigorous assessment of the program’s impacts on shootings given the lack of comparison areas for study (the program was implemented citywide, so it was not possible to compare areas with and without the program). A general rise in gun violence in Milwaukee that coincided with the implementation of the program also complicated efforts to judge the program’s impacts. In light of these findings, a longer-term study of Milwaukee’s CGIC program would seem valuable. The program’s effects may well become stronger over time as the MPD’s ballistics evidence database grows. Indeed, the rate of matches and leads from recovered ballistics evidence has grown notably during the life of the program. Hence, the research team recommends additional follow-up studies to assess the program’s longer-term impact on shooting investigations and gun crime. If impacts on gun crime can be determined more conclusively, cost-benefit analyses could also be conducted to quantify the program’s financial benefits. 

Washington, DC: National Police Foundation. 2019.. 51p.   

By Craid Uchida, Allison Quigley and Kyle Anderson

The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD Department) received a grant from the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) to establish the Los Angeles Crime Gun Intelligence Center (LA CGIC). The Center is a collaboration that focuses on the collection, management, and analysis of crime gun data and seeks to reduce gun-related crime. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) developed the concept of the Crime Gun Intelligence Center, and the Bureau of Justice Assistance provided funding for planning and implementation purposes. In Los Angeles, ATF, the LAPD, and all of the partners implemented a CGIC in 77th Street Division, one of 21 patrol stations in the Department. In January 2018, LA CGIC became fully operational and began to use ‘actionable intelligence’ based on National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) leads and hits. In October 2018, LA CGIC was expanded to include three other South Bureau divisions: Harbor (HBR), Southeast (SOE), and Southwest (SOW). This report provides background information about the formation of the LA CGIC and evaluates the program using data and information gathered through interviews and observations of meetings and activities of the LA CGIC partners.   

Los Angeles: Justice & Security Strategies, Inc., 2019. 46p.

By Seth Fallik,  Cassandra Atkin-Plunk, & Vaughn Crichlow

Palm Beach County (PBC), Florida is home to approximately 1.47 million residents and 8 million tourist visitors each year (pbc.gov), where extreme wealth exists alongside abject poverty. Concentrations of high unemployment, unstable housing, community divestments, large immigrant populations, segregated neighborhoods, and gross inequities in the distribution of resources have contributed to the later. Crime is, unfortunately, an artifact of these conditions, with some areas in PBC experiencing violent crime nearly twice national and state averages. In these communities, there is a large gang presence, human trafficking, and drug activity. In 2019, nearly half (46.6%) of violent crimes in PBC involved a firearm, including a high rate of nonfatal shootings and rising homicide rates. Within this context, the bereaved, injured, and communities in PBC often live in fear of retaliation, are intimidated away from cooperating with law enforcement, and are innocent bystanders in gang-related incidents. Substantively, PBC needed to take immediate action to address firearm-related crime. As the largest law enforcement agency in PBC and with its lengthy history of community-wide initiative leadership, the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office (PBSO) is poised to inform and lead a response to these issues. There are several intelligence, technology, coordination, and engagement efforts already underway with the PBSO. They, for example, manage the only Forensic Criminal Laboratory in the County and the PBC Real-Time Crime Center (RTCC). They also have strategically placed ShotSpotters and license plate readers throughout PBC. Additionally, the PBSO has developed several meaningful collaborations in PBC in response to gun crime, which appears in the National Resource and Technical Assistance Center (NRTAC) Business Process Maps (see Appendix A). In the last six years, for Figure 1.01 Law Enforcement and Community-Based Task Forces example, the PBSO has participated in many law enforcement- and community-based task forces (see Figure 1.01). While these partnerships have effectively started the conversation around violence and gun crime, a community-wide, coordinated gun strategy has been without technical assistance and is resource-limited in PBC.  

Boca Raton, Florida: Florida Atlantic University , 2024.  163p.

By Allen Copenhaver, Nick Bowman, and Christopher J. Ferguson

Twitter is a popular social medium for members of the U.S. Congress, and the platform has become a focal for framing policy discussions for constituents and the media. The current study examines the corpus of N = 5,768 Congressional tweets sent on the day of and week following the 2018 Parkland shooting, over 25 percent of which (n = 1,615) were related to the shooting. Democrats were far more likely to engage Parkland as a prominent topic in their Twitter feeds. Democrats framed Parkland discussions in terms of outrage and criticism, as well as discussions of the potential causes of and (legislative) solutions to gun violence. Republicans mostly avoided Parkland discussions and political framing. 

Journal of Mass Violence Research, 2023  

By DJ Summers  

Colorado’s crime surge in the early 2020s was not limited to property and violent crimes. Human trafficking also surged. These offenses come in two forms. Victims are either coerced into labor or into commercial sex acts, the latter of which represents the majority of Colorado’s human trafficking. Colorado is not an outlier. Nationally, human trafficking has increased as well and reached a ten-year high in 2023. Colorado’s human trafficking is more severe than elsewhere. The state ranks among the states with the highest numbers of human trafficking reports and rates of human trafficking reports. To understand the problem of human trafficking better, leaders should consider better means of assembling data that would show trends among offenders and victims.

Key Findings

In 2023, Colorado had the nation’s 10th-highest number of human trafficking reports, 84 in total.

 In the U.S., the total number of reported human trafficking incidents rose and reached a 15-year peak in 2023, with 3,117, more than twice the number reported in 2019.[i]

Colorado had the nation’s 10th highest rate of human trafficking reports per 100,000 at 1.44.

 Colorado reached a record amount of human trafficking in 2023, with 84 reported incidents.

On average, there have been 74 reports of human trafficking in Colorado in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Between 2016 and 2020, there were an average 48 per year.

Adams County is the location for the largest share of Colorado’s human trafficking both over time (27%) and in 2023 (26%).  

El Paso and Denver counties rank second and third from 2008 to 2024, with 21% and 18%, respectively.

 In the record year 2023, Adams, Boulder, and Denver counties had the highest shares of human trafficking at 26%, 15%, and 18%, respectively.

 Greenwood Village, CO: Common Sense Institute, 2024. 10p.

By Peter M. Swartz

COUNTER-PIRACY OPERATIONS: LESSONS FROM HISTORY

Recent events off the Horn of Africa have once again involved the US Navy in counter-piracy operations. The Navy has been involved in operations against piracy since the 18th century. We quickly reviewed these operations and found several relevant lessons for today’s operations.

PIRACY ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE CENTURIES

We identified three distinct eras relating to piracy: the era of privateering, the era of Western imperialism, and the era of terrorism.

THE ERA OF PRIVATEERING: 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES

Privateers were civilians licensed by their sovereigns to seize upon the high seas vessels, cargoes, and crews of other nations against whom their own nation was at war. Pirates also operated for their own financial benefit on the high seas, but with no government authorization, and against the ships, cargoes, and crews of any nation. The Law of Nations allowed the forces of any nation to capture, try, and hang them. In the 18th and 19th centuries, however, it was often difficult to differentiate legal privateering from illegal piracy. During this period the American merchant marine became second only to that of Great Britain in size. As one of the world’s leading shipping powers, the United States had a vital interest in the safety of American ships, crews, cargoes, and profits. This was the principal mission set of the Navy through most of this period. This was the era of the Barbary pirates and the Caribbean anti-piracy campaign.

THE ERA OF WESTERN IMPERIALISM: 19TH AND 20TH CENTURIES

The nineteenth century saw an explosion of European and American global commerce, and a concomitant increase in attacks on that commerce worldwide. Some of these attacks were sponsored by political entities: decaying empires, petty states, local warlords, and insurgent groups. Others were clearly conducted by independent bands of true pirates. Western naval operations to suppress piracy usually involved landings and assaults ashore. These anti-piracy   CNA Historical Paper Series (2006) ii operations were sometimes hard to distinguish—especially in the minds of local rulers—from the various other forms of European colonial land-grabs then underway throughout the world.

Arlington VA: CNA, 2006. (published 2021) 21p.

By Alicia Schmidt

This report outlines a conceptual model of the social and economic impacts of money laundering and terrorism financing. Drawing on a comprehensive literature review and stakeholder interviews, it identifies possible economic, societal and sectoral impacts. Economic impacts are those that affect the economy at a macro level and include reductions in economic growth and foreign direct investment and the distortion of exchange and interest rates. Societal impacts include changes in crime levels—predicate offences which generate illicit proceeds that are then laundered, crimes financed using laundered funds and crimes attracted to areas where money laundering occurs—and the associated costs to the community. They also include the consequences of terrorism enabled by terrorism financing, including the costs of terrorist attacks and the impact on national reputation. Sectoral impacts include damage to the reputation of the financial sector and other regulated entities, the crowding out of legitimate competitors, artificial increases in prices (eg real estate prices), and lost tax revenue. Importantly, not all impacts are harmful; potential benefits of money laundering include the recovery of proceeds of crime from the enforcement of the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) regime, the profitability of certain sectors that facilitate or enable money laundering, and the growth of the AML/CTF industry. Having identified these impacts, this report assesses their significance in the Australian context and sets out a path towards quantifying the impacts identified as both relevant and measurable.

Consultancy Report Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2024. 117p.

By Rebecca Valek, Julie A. Ward, Vanya Jones & Cassandra K. Crifasi 

U.S. firearm sales surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many purchases by first-time firearm owners. The 2023 National Survey of Gun Policy sought to understand the public health implications of this surge by comparing the purchasing motivations and firearm policy views of pandemic-era first-time purchasers to prior gun owners. We fielded a nationally representative public opinion survey of U.S. adults (n = 3096) from 1/4/23 to 2/6/23. We oversampled for gun owners and Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans. Survey weights were applied to generate representative estimates. New gun owners were identified through affirmative responses to: “Have you bought any guns since January 1, 2020?” and “Did you buy your first gun after January 1, 2020?” Recent purchasers were additionally asked whether concerns of 1) political or 2) racial violence motivated their purchase. Purchase motivations and gun policy support were examined among new and prior gun owners (n = 1002) and compared using logistic regression and predictive probabilities. Overall, 11% of respondents reported purchasing a gun since 1/1/20, 35% for the first time. Among recent purchasers, larger proportions of Democrat, Black, Asian, and Hispanic respondents were new gun owners than Republican or white respondents. Compared to prior owners, odds were 4.5-times higher that new gun owners’ recent purchase was motivated by racial violence and 3.2-times higher for political violence. Majority support was found for protective gun policies, with few differences by purchase recency or motivations. The only policy for which support by new and prior gun owners differed significantly was the permit-to-purchase policy (76% v. 63%, respectively). Similarly, few significant differences in support were observed when stratifying by purchase motivation. Notably, both those who reported recent purchase motivations of racial violence and of political violence expressed significantly higher support for a “stand-your-ground” policy compared to those who did not report such motivations.Racial and political violence appear to be larger concerns among new gun owners, motivating purchasing among demographic groups with traditionally lower gun ownership rates. These findings suggest a need for safety assurances amid racial and political tensions and growing gun ownership. Gun owners’ support for such policies remains strong.

Injury Epidemiology 11, Article number: 48 (2024)          

By Eric L. Piza, George O. Mohler, Nathan T. Connealy, Rachael Arietti & Jeremy G. Carter 

Objectives -  This study explores the level to which Gunshot Detection Technology (GDT) leads to increased arrests and stops as compared to shots fired calls for service (CFS) in Chicago, Illinois. Methods A two-process Knox test and point process test are applied to measure the level to which GDT alerts and CFS cluster with arrests and stops in space and time. Both tests are first applied to the aggregate arrest and stops data. We then disaggregate arrests and stops by type as well as suspect race/ethnicity to measure any disproportionate effects across GDT and CFS. Results Both GDT alerts and CFS are significantly associated with arrests and stops occurring in close spatial and temporal proximity. The relative effect of GDT and CFS was consistent across race in the majority of instances. The small number of instances with disparate effects did not exhibit any clear patterning. For some racial groups and arrest/stop types, GDT was associated with heightened enforcement while CFS had a null effect, with the opposite relationship observed for other racial groups and arrest/stop types. Conclusions:  Overall, the results indicate that GDT systems may not generate racial disparities in arrests and stops above and beyond what results from the standard police response to gunfire. Racial disparities resulting from police responses to reported gunfire likely relate to aspects of the reporting and dispatch processes generally rather than as they relate specifi cally to GDT.

Journal of Quantitative Criminology July 2024

By Stefan Schaufelbühl , Nicolas Florquin , Denis Werner , Olivier Delémont

3D-printed firearms, an emerging category of privately made firearms (PMF) produced beyond government control, have become increasingly prevalent due to technological advancements. They are now emerging as a cost-effective and reliable alternative to conventional firearms. Raised to public awareness following the 2013 release of the 3D-printed Liberator, these firearms are now more commonly encountered by police forces. This article analyses various reports involving 3D-printed firearms, reflecting the increasing encounters by law enforcement agencies. It examines 186 cases involving 3D-printed firearms, primarily from North America, Europe, and Oceania, highlighting a significant rise in incidents since 2021. These incidents include seizures, illicit uses, and online sales, with the firearms typically being hybrid models, Parts Kit Completions/Conversions (PKC), or firearm components such as auto sears. The study underscores the use of affordable equipment and materials for production, emphasizing the accessibility and potential risks of these firearms.

Forensic Sci Int Synerg. 2024 Mar 28:8:100464.

By Yulia Yarina and Nicolas Florquin

Dangerous Devices: Privately Made Firearms in the Caribbean—a new Situation Update by the Small Arms Survey and its partners CARICOM IMPACS, CARPHA, and GA-CDRC at the University of the West Indies—examines the latest trends and developments regarding PMFs, their production and circulation in the Caribbean region, and calls for more in-depth data collection on these types of weapons to help tackle this threat to security and public health. The Situation Update was launched at the side event ‘A Public Health Crisis: Small Arms Trafficking and Violence in the Caribbean,’ held on 18 June 2024 on the margins of the Fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms. KEY FINDINGS • While privately made firearms (PMFs) represent a small proportion of all firearm seizures in the Caribbean region, the threat appears to be growing as police are recovering a range of different types of PMFs. • Significant seizures of partially finished frames and computer numerical control (CNC)-milled receivers used to assemble firearms have been recorded since April 2023. • The first reported seizure of 3D-printed firearms in the region occurred in August 2023. Seizures of 3D-printed firearms and components have taken place in at least three countries since, also leading to the dismantlement of workshops and recovery of 3D printers. • Seizures of so-called ‘conversion devices’ in several countries underscore the particular threat they pose to public health in the region, given that they can be used to convert semi-automatic pistols and rifles to fully automatic weapons, thus increasing the risk of multiple injuries. • Few seized PMFs are identified as such in the publicly available reports examined by the Survey, which suggests that efforts are needed to improve the detection, identification, and monitoring of these weapons. • Death certificates and other public health records currently do not always capture detailed information about the types of firearms used in shootings, including whether they might have been PMFs.   

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 24p

By Gergely Hideg

The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 percent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period. • During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.  About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered. • The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 percent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally— compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 11p. 

By Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Michelle Degli Esposti, Stephen Hargarten, Laura Vargas and Jason E. Goldstick

Background

Globally, Mexico is one of six countries with the highest level of firearm mortality. While previous studies have examined firearm mortality in Mexico before 2015, increases in violence since then highlight the need for an updated analysis. In this study, we examined changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and described these deaths by key demographic groups, incident location, and state of occurrence. Data came from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a federal agency that collects and reports national population data. We used descriptive statistics to analyze rates, proportions, and percentage changes in firearm mortality, and we displayed temporal trends using time plots and special trends using maps.

Results

Firearm deaths increased in Mexico from 2015 to 2018 but slightly decreased from 2018 to 2022. Homicides presented the highest increase and the highest proportion of firearm-related deaths from 2015 to 2022. Victims were primarily males but rates among women increased at a higher proportion (99.5% vs 53.5%). One third of victims were 20–29y but rates among children and adolescents (10–9y) increased at a higher proportion. Most firearm-related deaths occurred in streets or public spaces but the percentage of incidents occurring in households have increased. State-level rates and percentage changes varied significantly. States with higher rates of firearm mortality coincide with those involving conflict among organized criminal organizations.

Conclusion

Firearm mortality in Mexico is a major public health burden. The epidemiology of firearm-related deaths in Mexico varies by intent, demographics, location, and states. To mitigate this challenge, multiple solutions are required.

Introduction

Previous studies have documented increases in firearm mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2015 (Dare et al. 2019). Reports from nonprofit organizations and news outlets indicate further increases since 2015, (particularly firearm homicides associated with organized crime) (Calderon et al. 2020), but comprehensive characterization of those trends is lacking. Organized criminal groups continue to operate in Mexico and roughly 213 k firearms are trafficked from the US every year (McDougal et al. 2014). In this regard, further increases in firearm mortality would threaten the future economy and health of Mexico (Peters et al. 2020; Aburto et al. 2016), and yet the lack of precise epidemiological information limits the ability to address this growing national problem with evidence-based programs and policies. In this analysis, we document changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and describe these deaths by key demographic groups (e.g., sex, age, and urbanicity), incident location (e.g., households or public spaces) and states where they occurred.

Methods

Data on causes of death were collected from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a national vital statistic database that has previously been used to examine firearm mortality in Mexico (Dare et al. 2019; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023a). INEGI collects annual mortality data and provides information on year of occurrence (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023b). We merged datasets from 2015 to 2022. We excluded deaths that occurred/registered before 2015 and those where year of occurrence was unknown (n = 432), as well as deaths that occurred outside of Mexico (n = 2).

In line with previous studies (Degli Esposti et al. 2023; Cunningham et al. 2018), we identified firearm deaths using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes for firearm homicide (X93–X95 and U01.4), firearm suicide (X72–X74), unintentional firearm deaths (W32–W34), and firearm deaths of undetermined intent (Y22–Y24). Firearm deaths were further disaggregated by sex and age group (< 10y; 10–19y; 20–29y; 30–39; 40–49y; 50–59y; 60–69y; 70y+) and geographic information (urbanicity, incident location, state of occurrence). Urbanicity was defined using INEGI’s predetermined categories of urbanicity (urban and rural). Similarly, incident location was defined using INEGI’s eight predetermined categories of where deaths occurred (household, school or office, sport fields, streets or public spaces, commercial areas, industrial areas, farms/ranches, and other).

We used descriptive statistics to examine pooled 2015–2022 rates, annual rates for 2015 and 2022 separately, as well as percentage changes (in rates) from 2015 to 2022 across categories of intent, sex, age groups, and state of occurrence. To obtain rates, we used population estimates (by year, sex, age group, and state) provided by Mexico’s Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) (Consejo Nacional de Población 2024). We also examined the percentage of firearm related deaths within categories defined by urbanicity, location, intent, and demographics. We displayed these percentages for 2015, 2022, and the total pooled 2015–2022 period.

Results

We examined 188,397 firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022. Rates of firearm-related deaths increased by 88.2% from 2015 to 2018 and decreased by 16.7% from 2018 to 2022 (Fig. 1). Homicide accounted for 92.2% of firearm deaths (Table 1) during this period and experienced the highest percentage increase (62.7%) from 2015 (10.37 per 100 k) to 2022 (16.87 per 100 k). Rates of undetermined firearm-related deaths and unintentional shootings also increased during this period (Table 1), while firearm suicide decreased by 23.4% (from 0.47 per 100 k in 2015 to 0.36 per 100 k in 2022).

Injury Epidemiology; 2024

By Chelsa Kenney

Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy: 2020 identified the trafficking of firearms from the U.S. into Mexico as a threat to the safety and security of both countries. The Mexican government has estimated that 200,000 firearms are smuggled from the United States each year. GAO was asked to report on U.S. efforts to counter firearms trafficking to Mexico. This report examines (1) the extent of U.S. agencies’ knowledge about firearms trafficking to Mexico and (2) U.S. agencies’ efforts to disrupt this trafficking and the extent to which they have assessed those efforts. GAO reviewed firearms tracing data, related analysis, and program information for fiscal years 2014 through 2020. GAO also interviewed U.S. and Mexican officials. This is a public version of a sensitive report that GAO issued in December 2020. What GAO Recommends GAO is making eight recommendations, including recommending that ATF and ICE analyze additional information about the trafficking of U.S.-sourced firearms to Mexico and that ATF, ICE, CBP, and State develop performance measures to assess the results of their efforts to disrupt this trafficking. The agencies concurred with GAO’s recommendations.   

Washington, DC: United States Government Accountability Office , 2021. 56p.

By Suzanne G. McLone, John R. Pamplin II, Jaii D. Pappu, Jaimie L. Gradus1 and Jonathan S. Jay

Background Firearm homicide and opioid overdoses were already leading causes of death in the U.S. before both problems surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. Firearm violence, overdoses, and COVID-19 have all disproportionately harmed communities that are socially and economically marginalized, but the co-occurrence of these problems in the same communities has received little attention. To describe the co-occurrence of firearm homicides and opioid overdose deaths with COVID-19 mortality we used 2017–2021 medical examiner’s data from Chicago, IL. Deaths were assigned to zip codes based on descendants' residence. We stratified zip codes into quartiles by COVID-19 mortality rate, then compared firearm homicide and fatal opioid overdose rates by COVID-19 quartile. Findings Throughout the study period, firearm homicide and opioid overdose rates were highest in the highest COVID-19 mortality quartile and lowest in the lowest COVID-19 mortality quartile. Increases in firearm homicide and opioid overdose were observed across all COVID-19 mortality quartiles. Conclusions High co-occurrence of these deaths at the community level call for addressing the systemic forces that made them most vulnerable before the pandemic. Such strategies should consider the environments where people reside, not only where fatal injuries occur. 

Injury Epidemiology 11:34: 2024.

By Jason Theis,  Katherine Hoops, Marisa Booty,  Paul Nestadt, Cassandra Crifasi

Introduction: In the United States, firearm suicide represents a major cause of preventable, premature death among veterans. The purpose of this systematic review was to characterize the body of literature on veteran firearm suicide and identify areas for future research, which may facilitate the development of firearm suicide interventions in Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and non–Veterans Health Administration clinical settings.

Materials and Methods: All randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental, naturalistic, observational, and case study designs published between January 1, 1990, and February 21, 2019, were included in our review. Following title and abstract review, 65 papers were included in our full-text review and 37 studies were included in our analysis. We based our approach on a modification of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. Studies were grouped into broad, non-mutually exclusive categories: (1) heterogeneity of datasets and veteran status determination for inclusion, (2) service histories, (3) firearm ownership, storage, behaviors, and risk perceptions, (4) patient and clinician attitudes toward firearm restriction interventions, (5) firearm suicide risk factors by study population, and (6) assessments of clinical firearm interventions.

Results: This body of literature consists predominately of cross-sectional studies with mixed definitions and validation of veteran status, which revealed a high concordance of increased risk of firearm suicide compared with nonveterans. Veterans have higher rates of firearm ownership than the general population, primarily citing personal protection as the reason for gun ownership. Veterans often exhibit risky firearm usage and storage behaviors but tend to favor measures that limit access to firearms by at-risk individuals. Despite this, there remains persistent hesitation among clinicians to screen and counsel veterans on firearm safety.

Conclusions: This systematic review highlights an urgent need to produce higher quality evidence and new data with standard definitions that are critical to inform clinical practice and enhance public health measures to reduce firearm suicide among veterans

Military Medicine, Volume 186, Issue 5-6, May-June 2021, Pages e525–e536,

By Nicole M. Smith, Kady Seguin, U. Mete Saka, Sebnem Duzgun, Ashley Smith-Roberts, David Soud, Jenna White

Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for many industries along gold supply chains, including gold refiners and jewelry retailers. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, discrepancies in reported trade data, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that certain portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, some types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global gold trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 42–59. 2024