Estimates of Illicit Opioid Use in the US
By David Powell; Mireille Jacobson
IMPORTANCE Illicit opioids, particularly illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF), are major contributors to overdose deaths in the US. Understanding the prevalence and characteristics of illicit opioid use is crucial for addressing the opioid crisis. OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of illicit opioid use, including IMF, and initial opioid exposure among those reporting illicit opioid use. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study was conducted using an online survey with targeted demographic quotas from June 10, 2024, to June 17, 2024. A total of 1515 participants aged 18 years and older from the US completed the survey. The analysis was conducted between June 30, 2024, and February 13, 2025. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was self-reported illicit opioid use within the past 12 months. Secondary outcomes included initial exposure to opioids and perceived likelihood of overdose. Logistic regression was used to analyze associations with demographic and geographic factors. RESULTS A total of 1515 respondents completed the survey, including 770 female individuals (50.8%), 20 American Indian or Alaska Native (1.3%), 101 Asian or Pacific Islander (6.7%), 215 Black (14.2%), 1087 White (81.7%), and 24 multiracial (1.6%); 186 (12.3%) were aged 18 to 24, 242 (16.0%) 25 to 34, 327 (21.6%) 35 to 44, 280 (18.5%) 45 to 54, 281 (18.5%) 55 to 64, 139 (9.2%) 65 to 74, and 60 (4.0%) 75 to 84 years. Among this sample, 166 (10.96%; 95% CI, 9.38%-12.52%) reported nonprescription opioid use within the past 12 months, including 114 (7.52%; 95% CI, 6.20%-8.85%) of the 1515 respondents reporting IMF use. Among those reporting nonprescription opioid use within the past 12 months, 65 (39.16%; 95% CI, 31.73%-46.58%) reported that their first opioid use involved opioids prescribed to them, whereas 60 (36.14%; 95% CI, 28.84%-43.45%) reported that their first use involved prescription opioids not prescribed to them. Only 41 (24.70%; 95% CI, 18.14%-31.26%) answered that their first exposure involved illicit opioids. Seventy-one (4.69%; 95% CI, 3.62%-5.75%) of all respondents reported that it was very likely they would have an overdose due to opioid use. This rate increased to 33.33% (95% CI, 24.68%-41.99%) among those who had used IMF within the past 12 months. Illicit opioid use was higher among men, Black respondents, and younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The findings of this cross-sectional study indicate a higher prevalence of illicit opioid use than previously reported, highlighting the need for more timely and accurate data to inform policy and intervention strategies.
JAMA Health Forum; 2025