Firearm Violence Across North Carolina In Rural, Urban and Suburban Areas

By North Carolina Criminal Justice Analysis Center

This report examines patterns of firearm violence across North Carolina over the most recent five-year period, with attention to variation across rural, urban, and suburban communities. The analysis identifies clear temporal trends and significant demographic and geographic disparities that can inform targeted prevention and policy responses.

Firearm homicide increased sharply beginning in 2019, rising 72 percent statewide and peaking in 2021. Since that peak, firearm homicides have declined by 29 percent through mid-2025. Non-fatal shootings followed a similar trajectory, indicating a broader surge and subsequent reduction in interpersonal firearm violence.

In contrast, firearm suicide represents a larger and growing share of firearm-related deaths. From 2019 to 2023, firearm suicides exceeded homicides statewide, with consistent annual increases since 2014. Risk is concentrated among older adults, particularly men aged 65 and older in rural areas, aligning with broader national trends.

Young adults face the highest risk of interpersonal firearm violence. Individuals aged 20–24 consistently experience the highest rates across homicide, non-fatal shootings, and other firearm-related crimes, with elevated risk also observed among those aged 15–19 and 25–29. This pattern highlights the transition to adulthood as a critical period for intervention.

Substantial racial and ethnic disparities persist. Black, non-Hispanic individuals experience the highest rates of interpersonal firearm violence statewide, with particularly high rates in rural areas. American Indian and Alaska Native individuals also face disproportionately high victimization relative to their population size. Hispanic individuals experience comparatively higher victimization rates in urban counties.

Geographic differences are pronounced. Rural counties exhibit the highest overall rates across multiple forms of firearm violence, including homicide, suicide, non-fatal shootings, and unintentional deaths, particularly following the 2021 spike. While urban counties have similar cumulative firearm homicide totals over the five-year period, they report substantially higher levels of other firearm-related crime and lower rates of firearm suicide. Suburban counties consistently show the lowest rates of interpersonal firearm violence but have higher firearm suicide rates than urban areas.

Overall, the findings underscore the need for differentiated strategies that address both interpersonal firearm violence and suicide, with targeted approaches for high-risk populations and communities.