By Juan José Palacios Vega, Manuel Martín Brañas, Sydney Silverstein, Ricardo Zárate Gómez, Nicholas Kawa, Margarita del Águila Villacorta

In recent decades, drug crop eradication and drug trafficking interdiction have pushed drug crop cultivation into new areas of the Amazonian rainforest. The presence of the drug industries in these regions—followed by alternative development programs that aim to substitute illicit drug crops with commodity crops like cacao—has transformed forest ecologies, risking loss to both biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services (CES) for surrounding communities. In the last ten years, forest loss linked to the increase in cultivation of commodity crops—both licit and illicit—has been monitored, generating extensive geospatial data. However, the spatiotemporal impacts on key plant species utilized by indigenous communities who have recently shifted to drug crop and commodity agricultural production remain poorly understood. In this paper, we use geospatial modeling to explore the potential impacts of drug crop cultivation and alternative development programs on the CES of Ticuna indigenous communities of the Peruvian Amazon. We analyze the spatiotemporal impact of drug and commodity crop cultivation on three culturally significant species of the genus Ischnosiphon, known locally as dexpe or huarumá, by generating a model of the potential distribution of the three species. The rate of increase of legal and illegal crops was also calculated and the spatiotemporal impact was measured and represented using spatial analysis techniques. Our analysis finds that, between 2010 and 2020, the increase in both illicit and licit commodity crop cultivation is correlated with changes in the distribution of huarumá species, which in turn affects the cultural ecosystem services of Ticuna communities.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 93–111. 

By Louise I. Shelley

In 1994, the second full year of Demokratizatsiya’s publication, I analyzed the impact of organized crime on the development of post-Soviet states in an article entitled “Post-Soviet Organized Crime: Implications for Economic, Social, and Political Development.”1 This article was written at a time when many in the West were sure that the future course of development for Russia and other post-Soviet states was one of free markets and democracy. Most research on organized crime and high-level corruption in Russia would not be published until much later.2 My article provided a very different and contrarian approach to this rosy scenario for Soviet successor states. In the article’s introduction, I asserted that the infiltration of organized crime into the state would ensure that organized crime would “play a significant role in determining the future course of developments in the Soviet successor states.” In my view, organized crime represented an amalgam of traditional criminals, members of the state security apparatus, former military personnel, and law enforcement officials. I did not associate post-Soviet organized crime exclusively with the very v zakone, the traditional thieves in law or professional criminals. I was especially concerned at the time that the rapid and non-transparent privatization of state property to the benefit of corrupt politicians, organized crime, and their business partners would have persistent and deleterious long-term consequences, leading to the monopolization of key sectors of post-Soviet economies rather than the competitive economies needed for growth.

Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, Volume 30, Number 4, Fall 2022, pp. 411-419

By  Almudena Arcelus, Carlos Chiapa, Pierre Cremieux, Maria Garibotti, Owen Hearey, Yeseul Hyun, Lu Jinks, Jee-Yeon Lehmann, Yao Lu, Kritika Narula, Lolo Palacios, Haimin Zhang 

Immigrants are an integral part of the U.S. economy. According to 2022 data from the U.S. Census Bureau, there are approximately 46 million immigrants in the United States, representing close to 14 percent of the total U.S. population. Immigrants participate in the civilian labor force at higher rates than native-born U.S. workers, and they are an important source for U.S. labor force growth that will help offset the large-scale retirement of baby boomers. A significant part of the growth in the foreign-born labor force in the United States over the past decade is associated with the arrival of immigrants who hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. Immigrants in the United States participate in a wide variety of occupations, ranging from high-skilled, high-wage jobs such as physicians and engineers to low-wage jobs such as agriculture work and food manufacturing. During the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns in the United States, immigrants played critical roles in key sectors of the economy, including healthcare, scientific research and development, agriculture, and food supply. Analysis by the Immigration Research Initiative, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that in 2021, immigrants contributed $3.3 trillion to the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), which represents 17 percent of total U.S. GDP. In addition to the civilian workforce, immigrants also serve in the U.S. military. As of 2022, nearly 731,000 veterans of the U.S. armed forces were born outside the United States, representing approximately 4.5 percent of the U.S. veteran population, with Mexican and Filipino immigrants comprising the largest groups of foreign-born veterans. 

Boston: The Analysis Group, 2024. 166p.

By Dorothy Dillard, Howard Henderson,  Johnny Rice II, Amy D. Goldstein, Maurice Mangum,

In this article, we explore the responses of 357 African American men between 15- and 24 years old living in four high-crime violence cities to better understand their perception of their environment and its impact on community violence. We focus on study participants’ perceptions of their cities, explanations of violence, and their perceived contribution to the level of violence. Respondents describe their cities in grim terms with few opportunities. And, from their perspective, the dangerous environment in which they live necessitates gun possession, potentially perpetuating community violence. Our findings affirm that as with any other public health issue, the perception of place matters in understanding community violence. Further, our findings underscore the importance of seeking and responding to the lived experience of those most likely to be victims and perpetrators of community violence in crafting and implementing interventions 

Delaware Journal of Public Health, 2024.

By Ciarán O’Connor and Jared Holt

Once considered a mere novelty app, TikTok is now a certified force in the information ecosystem.  

The short-form video giant is now being used by 14% of Americans as a news platform, according to a Pew Research Centre from 2023, an amount four times more than in 2020.  The impact of the platform, once best known for dance crazes and being a tastemaker for online trends, cannot be ignored. To better understand the impact that TikTok has, in 2023 ISD analysts gathered and analyzed data on trends in hate speech and extremist content on TikTok, and how effectively they were being moderated by the platform. The results, which center on a particular moment in time, have come to inform a series of studies – the first two of which focus on white supremacist content, and anti-migrant and -refugee content. While TikTok appears to have taken measures to improve content moderation practices since ISD’s 2021 study on extremism and hate speech on the platform, this new series demonstrates that TikTok is still ineffective in removing violative content. For example, data for the white supremacy content study was collected during one week in mid-August 2023 and indicates that such content was alive and well on the platform: 70 of the 108 video samples studied were uploaded to TikTok within the most recent three months at the time of collection. Of those 108 videos, the median number of views at the time of analysis was 6,097, a significant increase from ISD’s 2021 report where the median across 1,030 videos was 503 views. The last nine months have been tumultuous for TikTok as a company. In April 2024, President Joe Biden signed a bill that could result in a nationwide ban of the app should TikTok’s parent company, the Beijing-based ByteDance, not sell the platform within 12 months. As part of an ongoing legal fight over the possible ban, the Justice Department, according to the Associated Press, this summer alleged that TikTok was gathering bulk information on users’ “views on divisive social issues like gun control, abortion, and religion,” and harvesting data in violation of children’s online privacy law. As TikTok’s future remains undecided, content moderation issues on the platform persist. In July 2024, ISD published a report detailing the millions of views garnered by a network of neo-Nazi accounts on the platform. Just a month earlier, however, TikTok had published an updated transparency report in which they claimed that in the first four months of this year, moderators proactively removed 97.7% of violative content. Of that same sample, 89.8% were removed within 24 hours, down .1% from that same period in 2023. Despite TikTok’s statements, ISD and similar organizations consistently find content in clear violation of the platform’s policies.  

London Institute for Strategic Dialogue (2024). . 15p.