By Jorge Ruiz Reyes, Derek Congram, Renée A. Sirbu, Luciano Floridi

The disappearances of individuals are complex phenomena, spanning different regions and temporal periods. Evolving from different legal, social, and forensic disciplines, existing research has signaled the reasons for and contexts in which people disappear or go missing, as well as the development of investigative tools that assist, in fatal cases, in their identification. However, a different type of applied research, which we have labelled as data-based disappearance analysis (DDA), can offer statistical techniques to support the search for missing persons. In this paper, we review the literature on DDA, paying close attention to the evolution of this methodology and its contextual relevance. We highlight three applications by which DDA may support the search for missing persons: statistical inference, geospatial tools, and machine learning models and artificial intelligence. We demonstrate significant results using these applications, the potential misuses and ethical concerns, and draw lessons from their use. Lastly, we make recommendations to help researchers and practitioners support the search for missing persons.

Unpublished paper 2024

By U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Deepfakes, an emergent type of threat falling under the greater and more pervasive umbrella of synthetic media, utilize a form of artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) to create believable, realistic videos, pictures, audio, and text of events that never happened. Many applications of synthetic media represent innocent forms of entertainment, but others carry risk. The threat of Deepfakes and synthetic media comes not from the technology used to create it, but from people’s natural inclination to believe what they see, and as a result, deepfakes and synthetic media do not need to be particularly advanced or believable in order to be effective in spreading mis/disinformation. Based on numerous interviews conducted with experts in the field, it is apparent that the severity and urgency of the current threat from synthetic media depends on the exposure, perspective, and position of who you ask. The spectrum of concerns ranged from “an urgent threat” to “don’t panic, just be prepared.” To help customers understand how a potential threat might arise, and what that threat might look like, we considered a number of scenarios specific to the arenas of commerce, society, and national security. The likelihood of any one of these scenarios occurring and succeeding will undoubtedly increase as the cost and other resources needed to produce usable deepfakes simultaneously decreases - just as synthetic media became easier to create as non-AI/ML techniques became more readily available. In line with the multifaceted nature of the problem, there is no one single or universal solution, though elements of technological innovation, education, and regulation must comprise part of any detection and mitigation measures. In order to have success there will have to be significant cooperation among stakeholders in the private and public sectors to overcome current obstacles such as “stovepiping” and to ultimately protect ourselves from these emerging threats while protecting civil liberties.

Washington, DC: DHS, 2021.  47p.