By Anthony Morgan and Alexandra Voce

Espionage has become one of the most significant national security threats to Australia, impacting government, businesses and the university sector. The highly secretive nature of espionage makes it extremely difficult to measure. In this study we estimated, for the first time, the actual and prevented costs of espionage. Building on the Australian Institute of Criminology’s method for measuring the costs of serious and organised crime, we estimated the mitigation and response costs and the direct costs of espionage impacting Australia. We also estimated the preventable costs associated with a number of possible scenarios. The numbers are conservative and an underestimate of the true cost, given the challenges in identifying and measuring espionage activity and its consequences.

In 2023–24, espionage cost Australia at least $12.5 billion. This includes the direct costs of the consequences of known or probable espionage activity – primarily losses due to state or state-sponsored cyber attacks, insider threats and intellectual property theft – as well as the public and private sector response, remediation and mitigation costs. There are also tens of billions in additional costs that Australia may have prevented by countering potential espionage. For example, in just one week, a single incident of espionage-enabled sabotage from a large-scale cyber attack could cost the Australian economy nearly $6 billion. These prevented costs are significant, and highlight the importance and benefit of investing in efforts to reduce the threat of espionage and minimise the harm in high-risk settings.

Special reports. Bi, 21

Canberra: Australian Security Intelligence Organisation. 2025. 52p.

By Benjamin Ang and Muhammad Faizal

AI-generated disinformation in the form of deepfakes, comprising digitally manipulated video, audio, or images, has hit the headlines in Singapore. Cases from around the world demonstrate that AI-generated deepfakes combined with cyberattacks are not only a threat to the integrity of elections and scam victims but are also a threat to national security and defence. COMMENTARY Deepfake videos of Singapore’s political leaders have been circulating since at least last year, when manipulated video and audio impersonating Senior Minister (then Prime Minister) Lee Hsien Loong circulated online, appearing to promote a cryptocurrency scheme in a TV news interview. Similar videos impersonating Prime Minister (then Deputy Prime Minister) Lawrence Wong were also circulated. This year, more deepfake videos of Senior Minister (SM) Lee have been circulating online, this time showing him commenting on international relations. SM Lee described them as having “malicious intent” and was “dangerous and potentially harmful to our national interests”. To deal with this problem of deepfake videos, the Minister for Digital Development and Information, Ms Josephine Teo, is considering ways to regulate it by proposing a labelling scheme for tools and contents and even discussing a temporary ban to counter such videos, which are anticipated ahead of future Singapore general elections. The earlier cases were commercially motivated scams, but the recent ones have severe national security and defence implications. In SM Lee’s case, the deepfake made it look as if he was commenting on foreign policy, and foreigners unfamiliar with him could be misled, thereby sowing distrust. There is evidence that hostile information campaigns are used to weaken national cohesion or disrupt society in the lead-up to hostilities or as part of geopolitical contestation. 

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU Singapore , 2024. 4p.

By Cassandra Cross

Romance fraud uses the guise of a genuine relationship to deceive a victim into transferring often large amounts of money to an offender/s. Romance fraud has been in the top three categories of financial loss for Australian victims over the past decade, and this is a trend mirrored internationally. However, in recent years there has been a convergence of romance fraud and investment fraud approaches. Terms such as romance baiting, cryptorom and ‘pig butchering' have all emerged to describe how offenders are evolving in their attempts to defraud victims through offering fake cryptocurrency investment opportunities, using a relationship as the mechanism. This article analyses this shift in romance fraud offending and its embracing of investment scheme opportunities. It highlights the underlying reasons for the success of this amalgamated approach and further demonstrates how it potentially distorts the reporting of fraud as well as prevention messaging targeting these incidents.

Current Issues Criminal Justice Volume 36, 2024 - Issue 3