By Amy Finkelstein, Sarah Miller, and Katherine Baicker

  Those involved with the criminal justice system have disproportionately high rates of mental illness and substance-use disorders, prompting speculation that health insurance, by improving treatment of these conditions, could reduce crime. Using the 2008 Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, which randomly made some low-income adults eligible to apply for Medicaid, we find no statistically significant impact of Medicaid coverage on criminal charges or convictions. These null effects persist for high-risk subgroups, such as those with prior criminal cases and convictions or mental health conditions. In the full sample, our confidence intervals can rule out most quasi-experimental estimates of Medicaid’s crime-reducing impact.  

WORKING PAPER · NO. 2024-158

Chicago: University of Chicago, The Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, 2024. 49p.

By Tami L. Mark; Benjamin D. Huber

IMPORTANCE: Medicaid programs have expanded coverage of substance use disorder treatment and undertaken many other initiatives to reduce drug overdoses among beneficiaries. However, to date, no information has been published that tracks overdose deaths among the Medicaid population. OBJECTIVE To determine the rate of drug overdose among Medicaid beneficiaries. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this cross-sectional study, US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data from 2016 to 2020 that linked enrollment and demographic data from all Medicaid beneficiaries in the US with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Death Index were used to determine the rate of drug overdose death among Medicaid beneficiaries. The Medicaid population rates were compared with those of the total US population, overall and by age and sex. EXPOSURE Participation in the Medicaid program. MAIN OUTCOME Death of a drug overdose. RESULTS In 2020, the drug overdose death rate among Medicaid beneficiaries was 54.6 per 100 000, a rate that was twice as high as the drug overdose rate among all US residents (27.9 per 100 000). In 2020, Medicaid beneficiaries comprised 25.0% of the US population but 48% of all overdose deaths (44 277 of 91 783). For each age and sex group older than 15 years, overdose deaths were higher for the Medicaid population than for the US population, with the greatest difference occurring among adults ages 45 to 64 years. From 2016 to 2020, Medicaid overdose deaths increased by 54%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this study suggest that more research is needed to understand why Medicaid beneficiaries have higher rates of drug overdoses than all US residents. Additionally, research is needed to understand how best to prevent overdoses among Medicaid beneficiaries. The federal government should s

JAMA Health Forum. 2024;5(12):e244365. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.4365