By Brandon Tregle, Michael R. Smith, Chantal Fahmy & Rob Tillyer

Hot spots policing is an effective, evidence-based strategy that reduces violent crime within small geographic units, or “hot spots,” in urban areas. A strong body of research demonstrates that these hot spots disproportionately contribute to cities’ overall crime rates. However, the existing literature has yet to answer a critical question: Can the localized crime reductions achieved through hot spots policing make a significant enough contribution to lower overall crime rates across an entire city? To address this gap, we examined seven years of violent crime data from three major Texas cities. One city underwent a two-year targeted hot spots policing intervention, while the other two cities served as counter-factual, similarly situated jurisdictions. We used interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine longitudinal crime patterns in all three cities. The findings indicate that, compared to the control cities, the treatment city experienced a significant and substantial reduction in overall violent crime at the point of intervention. This decrease suggests that the hot spots intervention directly contributed to city-wide crime reduction, extending its impact beyond the designated hot spots.

Crime Sci 14, 3 (2025).

By Amy Finkelstein, Sarah Miller, and Katherine Baicker

  Those involved with the criminal justice system have disproportionately high rates of mental illness and substance-use disorders, prompting speculation that health insurance, by improving treatment of these conditions, could reduce crime. Using the 2008 Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, which randomly made some low-income adults eligible to apply for Medicaid, we find no statistically significant impact of Medicaid coverage on criminal charges or convictions. These null effects persist for high-risk subgroups, such as those with prior criminal cases and convictions or mental health conditions. In the full sample, our confidence intervals can rule out most quasi-experimental estimates of Medicaid’s crime-reducing impact.  

WORKING PAPER · NO. 2024-158

Chicago: University of Chicago, The Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, 2024. 49p.

By Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker

This paper offers experimental evidence that crime can be successfully reduced by changing the situational environment that potential victims and offenders face. We focus on a ubiquitous but surprisingly understudied feature of the urban landscape – street lighting – and report the first experimental evidence on the effect of street lighting on crime. Through a unique public partnership in New York City, temporary streetlights were randomly allocated to public housing developments from March through August 2016. We find evidence that communities that were assigned more lighting experienced sizable reductions in crime. After accounting for potential spatial spillovers, we find that the provision of street lights led, at a minimum, to a 36 percent reduction in nighttime outdoor index crimes.

NBER Working Paper No. 25798 Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019 45p.