By Isabella Voce, Anthony Morgan and Christopher Dowling

This study examines the criminal histories of outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) members during adolescence and early adulthood to determine whether the profile of young members has changed over time. The recorded offence histories of three cohorts of members—those born between 1979 and 1983, 1984 and 1988, and 1989 and 1993—were compared. Seventy-eight percent of OMCG members across all three cohorts had at least one recorded offence between the ages of 12 and 24. The majority of offenders did not desist but continued offending at a steady rate into adulthood. The youngest cohort in the study was more likely than the middle and older cohorts to have a criminal history and follow a high-rate offending trajectory. Members of the youngest cohort were also more likely to have been apprehended for violence and intimidation, weapons and ongoing criminal enterprise offences by their early twenties. These results suggest that OMCGs are recruiting younger members, who are becoming involved in gang-related offending earlier in life, or that individuals with a history of offending are becoming more likely to join or be recruited into OMCGs.

 Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 625. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology 2021.  18p.

By Christopher Dowling, Hayley Boxall and Anthony Morgan

This study examines the officially recorded criminal careers of 2,076 domestic violence offenders and 9,925 non-domestic violence offenders in New South Wales in the 10 years following their first police proceeding. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to examine both domestic violence and non-domestic violence offending. Special attention is given to the degree of versatility in offending, and to the interplay of domestic violence and non-domestic violence offending trajectories. Domestic violence offending often formed part of a broader pattern of offending. While trajectories of low‑frequency domestic violence and non-domestic violence offending were most common, domestic violence typically increases as non-domestic violence offences begin to decline. Importantly, there was variability in the offending profiles of domestic violence offenders. This was amplified when non-domestic violence offending was analysed, indicative of a complex array of underlying risk factors.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 624. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 17p.

By Hayley Boxall and Anthony Morgan

In this study, we analysed data from a survey of Australian women (n=9,284) to identify women at the highest risk of physical and sexual violence and coercive control during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Logistic regression modelling identified that specific groups of women were more likely than the general population to have experienced physical and sexual violence in the past three months. These were Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, women aged 18–24, women with a restrictive health condition, pregnant women and women in financial stress. Similar results were identified for coercive control, and the co-occurrence of both physical/sexual violence and coercive control. These results show that domestic violence during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic was not evenly distributed across the Australian community, but more likely to occur among particular groups.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 618. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 19p.

By Michael Salter, WK Tim Wong, Jan Breckenridge, Sue Scott, Sharon Cooper and Noam Peleg

Child sexual abuse material (CSAM) is widely available online. Existing research indicates that the parents and parental figures of victims are notably represented in offender populations. However, there is limited research in this area. Drawing on Australian media and legal databases, this study created a database of 82 cases of CSAM production and distribution perpetrated by parents and/or parental figures from 2009 to 2019. The study found that perpetrators are most often the male parental figures of the victims, and victims are predominately girls under nine years of age. The findings reveal distinct patterns and scenarios of parental CSAM offending that may inform prevention, early intervention and improved responses to victims. The study documented the significant impact of parental CSAM offending on victims and the need for specialist victim support.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 616.  Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 17p.

By Jesse Cale, Thomas Holt, Benoit Leclerc, Sara Singh and Jacqueline Drew

This review synthesises empirical studies from the past decade investigating child sexual abuse material (CSAM) production and distribution to gain insight into crime commission processes involved in these crimes. The findings highlight overlaps in risk factors for child sexual abuse and CSAM production and distribution, and possible unique risk factors specific to the latter. A substantial amount of CSAM is produced in family contexts, and there are different motivations and strategies for producing CSAM. Taken together, the findings provide important foundational information about the variety of crime commission processes involved in CSAM production and distribution, helping the development of effective prevention and intervention strategies for this increasingly prolific type of crime.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 617. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 22p.

By Christopher Dowling and Anthony Morgan

The criminal mobility of outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) members presents a significant challenge to Australian governments and police. Examining patterns of mobility can help to better understand the opportunity structures that underpin offending by OMCGs and to drive national collaborative responses to these gangs. This study examines the prevalence and patterns of criminal mobility in a sample of almost 4,000 OMCG members in more than 400 chapters. Around one in 10 members showed evidence of criminal mobility over the long term, while more than one-third of chapters comprised criminally mobile members. Criminally mobile gang members were heavily concentrated in a small number of chapters. Patterns of criminal mobility primarily involve movements into east coast jurisdictions. New South Wales and Queensland emerged as the most common destinations for criminally mobile OMCG members  

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 619. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 16p

By John Scott, Zoe Staines and James Morton

While there has been much research into Indigenous crime and justice, previous research draws largely on Aboriginal peoples, who are culturally distinct from Torres Strait Islanders. The Torres Strait region offers a unique opportunity to observe how justice is practised in remote contexts. Through statistical analysis and qualitative fieldwork, this study documents crime rates, community and customary justice practices and impediments to justice, to identify best practices unique to the Torres Strait region. Crime-report data indicate relatively low rates of crime in the Torres Strait region. While under-reporting and under-policing can partly explain these differences, strong levels of social capital, as well as unique justice practices, also play important roles in preventing crime in the region.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 620. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 13p.

By Anthony Morgan and Hayley Boxall

In this study we use data from a large online survey of Australian women to examine whether the increased time spent at home, social isolation and financial stress resulting from COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a higher likelihood of physical and sexual violence among women in current cohabiting relationships with and without a history of violence. An increase in the amount of time spent at home with a partner did not in itself increase the likelihood of violence among either group. However, the probability of repeat or first-time violence was between 1.3 and 1.4 times higher for women who had less frequent contact with family and friends outside of the household during the pandemic. While financial stress prior to the pandemic was a strong predictor of violence for both groups, the probability of first-time violence was 1.8 times higher among women who experienced an increase in financial stress. We conclude that the pandemic was associated with an increased risk of violence against women in current cohabiting relationships, most likely from a combination of economic stress and social isolation.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 609. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 18p.

By Rasmus Munksgaard and James Martin

Cryptomarkets represent a growing component of the global illicit drugs trade. Australia is over-represented in the proportion of online vendors who use these platforms to reach drug consumers. Despite the growth in online drug trading, relatively little is known about people who use cryptomarkets to sell drugs. This study addresses the knowledge gap and provides qualitative insights into this new, and little understood, cohort of offenders. The study found that vendors perceive less risk of violence and police intervention when selling drugs online and that the potential for profit exceeds that available when selling drugs offline.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 608. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 12p.

By Marie Henshaw, Chelsea Arnold, Rajan Darjee, James RP Ogloff and Jonathan A Cloug

Recent research suggests that child sexual abuse material (CSAM) offenders have distinct characteristics and intervention needs when compared to contact sexual offenders. As such, many sexual offender treatment programs may not be suitable for CSAM offenders without a history of contact offences. This paper describes the development of the CEM-COPE (Coping with Child Exploitation Material Use) Program. We discuss CSAM offender characteristics, recidivism rates and treatment considerations, before outlining the rationale, specifications and underpinnings of the CEM-COPE Program. Challenges in this research area and considerations for future research are also addressed.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 607. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 14p.

By Caitlin Hughes, Shann Hulme and Alison Ritter

In illicit drug markets, the price and purity of drugs change frequently. While it is well known that purity-adjusted price affects drug use, impacts on other outcomes are less clear. This rapid review examines the relationship between price, purity and seven population level measures of drug-related harm and any differences across three drug types. With a few exceptions, it found an inverse relationship between purity-adjusted price and drug-related harm, with higher purity-adjusted price associated with less drug-related harm, and lower purity-adjusted price associated with increased harm. This shows the value of price and purity data for predicting drug market impacts and the importance of improving price and purity data collection and analyses, particularly in Australia.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 598. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology 2020. 26p.

By Rick Brown, Sarah Napier and Russell G Smith  

In recent years, there has been growing evidence of live streaming technologies being used to facilitate child sexual abuse (CSA). This study examined a sample of financial transactions made by a cohort of Australians who provided funds to known facilitators of CSA live streaming in the Philippines. The results showed that these individuals were likely to be aged in their 50s or 60s and the majority (55%) had no criminal record. Ten percent had a sexual offence recorded in their criminal history. Most CSA live streaming transactions involved a small proportion of individuals. Just three percent accounted for half of all transactions. In contrast, 25 percent of individuals made just three percent of transactions. As individuals purchased more CSA live streaming transactions, the median amounts they paid increased and the transactions became more frequent. These two variables were significantly correlated. This may reflect an escalation in the frequency and severity of offending.  

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 589. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 16p.

By Cassandra Cross, Thomas Holt, Anastasia Powell and Michael Wilson 

Advancements in information technology are sources of both opportunity and vulnerability for citizens. Previous research indicates that there are significant challenges for police in investigating cybercrime, that community expectations about police responses are based largely on media representations, and that victims experience high levels of frustration and stigmatisation. This paper examines the views of the Australian community and law enforcement officers about the policing of cybercrime. Results suggest that police personnel are more likely to view cybercrime as serious, and community members are more likely to ascribe blame to victims. Results also indicate a discrepancy between police and community members in their views of the efficacy of police responses. These discrepancies contribute to public dissatisfaction. Therefore, the paper covers some general strategies for short- and long-term cybercrime prevention.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 635. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 20p.

By Megan Wyre, David Lacey and Kathy Allan

Identity theft continues to grow in prevalence and complexity. Despite this growth, little is known about the identity theft response system and how it assists victims to recover. This study examines the response system by analysing 211 identity theft cases reported to IDCARE, a national identity and cybercrime victim support service. The study applies a sociotechnical systems methodology to establish the social, task and information processes of the Australian identity theft response system. The study also examines identity theft victims’ response activities and needs over a 12-month period. The identity theft response system is almost entirely dependent on the victim to respond to and limit the harm caused by identity theft. Overall, the response system is disjointed and lacking in coordination. 

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 592.  Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 18p.

By Jesús Gorrín,  José Morales-Arilla , Bernardo Ricca

This paper documents how violence resulting from the Mexican Drug War hindered local export growth. Focusing on exports allows us to abstract from demand factors and measure effects on the local capacity to supply foreign markets. We compare exports of the same product to the same country, but facing differential exposure to violence after a close electoral outcome. Firms exogenously exposed to the Drug War experienced lower export growth. Violence eroded the local capacity to attract capital investment, disproportionately hampering large exporters and capital-intensive activities

2021. 60p.

By Fahra Rajabali, Kate Turcotte, Alex Zheng, Roy Purssell, Jane A. Buxton, Ian Pike

Poisoning, from substances such as illicit drugs, prescribed and over-the-counter medications, alcohol, pesticides, gases and household cleaners, is the leading cause of injury-related death and the second leading cause for injury-related hospital admission in British Columbia. We examined the health and economic costs of poisoning in BC for 2016, using a societal perspective, to support public health policies aimed at minimizing losses to society. Methods: Costs by intent, sex and age group were calculated in Canadian dollars using a classification and costing framework based on existing provincial injury data combined with data from the published literature. Direct cost components included fatal poisonings, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, ambulance attendance without transfer to hospital and calls to the British Columbia Drug and Poison Information Centre (BC DPIC) not resulting in ambulance attendance, emergency care or transfer to hospital. Indirect costs, measured as loss of earnings and informal caregiving costs, were also calculated. Results: We estimate that poisonings in BC totalled $812.5 million in 2016 with $108.9 million in direct health care costs and $703.6 million in indirect costs. Unintentional poisoning injuries accounted for 84% of total costs, 46% of direct costs and 89% of indirect costs. Males accounted for higher proportions of direct costs for all patient dispositions except hospital admissions. Patients aged 25–64 years accounted for higher proportions of direct costs except for calls to BC DPIC, where proportions were highest for children younger than 15 years. Interpretation: Hospital care expenditures represented the largest direct cost of poisoning, and lost productivity following death represented the largest indirect cost. Quantifying and understanding the financial burden of poisoning has implications not only for government and health care, but also for society, employers, patients and families.

CMAJ Open. 2023 Feb 14;11(1):E160-E168.

By Hannah E. Meyers

In November 2014, California voters approved a criminal justice reform measure, Proposition 47 (“Prop 47”), with almost 60% support. Ten years later, California voters are now considering rolling back some of its soft-on-crime policies. Prop 47 identified six “petty” crimes—grand theft, larceny, personal drug use, forgery, and two types of check fraud—and reclassified them. It downgraded these crimes, including thefts with property values under $950 and illegal drug possession for personal use, from felonies to misdemeanors. This paper presents a data-based argument on how Prop 47 shifted dynamics in both offender behavior and prosecutorial decision-making that damaged public safety and public health. Representative data from Riverside, one of California’s largest counties, suggest that Prop 47 increased re-offending, including serious felony re-offending, detention times, failures to appear in court, warrants issued on offenders, case dismissals in conjunction with plea deals, and the persistence levels of drug and theft offenders. Additional data collected from both Riverside and San Bernardino law-enforcement agencies show a significant drop in sentencing and in arrests, due partly to the diminished incentive for businesses to promptly report thefts. These shifts have also resulted in fewer defendants participating in in-custody drug treatment programs or other mandatory, supervised services because the incentives for doing so (avoiding prosecution and significant sentences) have evaporated. And, as California business owners can attest, reducing the cost of repeatedly committing theft removes the incentive for offenders to change their behavior. This has fueled increases in organized retail theft and fencing rings. Prop 47 also strained the resources of counties, by increasing the number of defendants sentenced to serve in overcrowded jails rather than prison.

New York: Manhattan Institute, 2024. 20p.

By: Helen Toner, John Bansemer, Kyle Crichton, Matthew Burtell, Thomas Woodside, Anat Lior, Andrew Lohn, Ashwin Acharya, Beba Cibralic, Chris Painter, Cullen O’Keefe, Iason Gabriel, Kathleen Fisher, Ketan Ramakrishnan, Krystal Jackson, Noam Kolt, Rebecca Crootof, and Samrat Chatterjee

The concept of artificial intelligence systems that actively pursue goals—known as AI “agents”—is not new. But over the last year or two, progress in large language models (LLMs) has sparked a wave of excitement among AI developers about the possibility of creating sophisticated, general-purpose AI agents in the near future. Startups and major technology companies have announced their intent to build and sell AI agents that can act as personal assistants, virtual employees, software engineers, and more. While current systems remain somewhat rudimentary, they are improving quickly. Widespread deployment of highly capable AI agents could have transformative effects on society and the economy. This workshop report describes findings from a recent CSET-led workshop on the policy implications of increasingly “agentic” AI systems.

In the absence of a consensus definition of an “agent,” we describe four characteristics of increasingly agentic AI systems: they pursue more complex goals in more complex environments, exhibiting independent planning and adaptation to directly take actions in virtual or real-world environments. These characteristics help to establish how, for example, a cyber-offense agent that could autonomously carry out a cyber intrusion would be more agentic than a chatbot advising a human hacker. A “CEO-AI” that could run a company without human intervention would likewise be more agentic than an AI acting as a personal assistant.

At present, general-purpose LLM-based agents are the subject of significant interest among AI developers and investors. These agents consist of an advanced LLM (or multimodal model) that uses “scaffolding” software to interface with external environments and tools such as a browser or code interpreter. Proof-of-concept products that can, for example, write code, order food deliveries, and help manage customer relationships are already on the market, and many relevant players believe that the coming years will see rapid progress.

In addition to the many potential benefits that AI agents will likely bring, they may also exacerbate a range of existing AI-related issues and even create new challenges. The ability of agents to pursue complex goals without human intervention could lead to more serious accidents; facilitate misuse by scammers, cybercriminals, and others; and create new challenges in allocating responsibility when harms materialize. Existing data governance and privacy issues may be heightened by developers’ interest in using data to create agents that can be tailored to a specific user or context. If highly capable agents reach widespread use, users may become vulnerable to skill fade and dependency, agents may collude with one another in undesirable ways, and significant labor impacts could materialize as an increasing range of currently human-performed tasks become automated.

To manage these challenges, our workshop participants discussed three categories of interventions:

• Measurement and evaluation: At present, our ability to assess the capabilities and real-world impacts of AI agents is very limited. Developing better methodologies to track improvements in the capabilities of AI agents themselves, and to collect ecological data about their impacts on the world, would make it more feasible to anticipate and adapt to future progress.

• Technical guardrails: Governance objectives such as visibility, control, trustworthiness, as well as security and privacy can be supported by the thoughtful design of AI agents and the technical ecosystems around them. However, there may be trade-offs between different objectives. For example, many mechanisms that would promote visibility into and control over the operations of AI agents may be in tension with design choices that would prioritize privacy and security.

• Legal guardrails: Many existing areas of law—including agency law, corporate law, contract law, criminal law, tort law, property law, and insurance law—will play a role in how the impacts of AI agents are managed. Areas where contention may arise when attempting to apply existing legal doctrines include questions about the “state of mind” of AI agents, the legal personhood of AI agents, how industry standards could be used to evaluate negligence, and how existing principal-agent frameworks should apply in situations involving AI agents.

While it is far from clear how AI agents will develop, the level of interest and investment in this technology from AI developers means that policymakers should understand the potential implications and intervention points. For now, valuable steps could include improving measurement and evaluation of AI agents’ capabilities and impacts, deeper consideration of how technical guardrails can support multiple governance objectives, and analysis of how existing legal doctrines may need to be adjusted or updated to handle more sophisticated AI agents.

Center for Security and Emerging Technology, October 2024

By: Lauren Stienstra, Diane P. Horn, Erica A. Lee, Bruce R. Lindsay, William L. Painter, Elizabeth M. Webster

On October 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Florida’s Tampa Bay area bringing heavy rain, storm surge, and floods to many counties on the coast and in the interior of the state. Some areas in the state are still actively recovering from Hurricane Helene.

President Biden had previously issued an emergency declaration for this storm on October 7, under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (the Stafford Act, P.L. 93-288, as amended; 42 U.S.C. §§5121 et seq.), authorizing Public Assistance (PA) for emergency protective measures put into action beginning October 5, 2024. On October 8, 2024, President Biden issued another emergency declaration authorizing federal assistance to Seminole Tribe of Florida.

As of October 11, President Biden declared a major disaster for Hurricane Milton in Florida, authorizing PA, Individual Assistance, and Hazard Mitigation Assistance. President Biden also increased the federal share of eligible response costs; the federal government will cover 100% of eligible costs of PA provided for emergency protective measures and debris removal for a period of 90 days.

The situation remains dynamic; additional declarations, or additional forms of assistance are expected given Milton’s impact.

Information about state and county disaster assistance is published in FEMA’s declaration database. FEMA’s Hurricane Milton web page provides information on how to apply for disaster assistance. FEMA has also created another site to dispel rumors and misinformation related to aid to survivors, evacuation, and relief funding.

CRS Insight, IN12438; Oct. 13, 2024

By: Yasmin Afina and Sarah Grand-Clément

Data plays a critical role in the training, testing and use of artificial intelligence (AI), including in the military domain. Research and development for AI-enabled military solutions is proceeding at breakneck speed, and the important role data plays in shaping these technologies has implications and, at times, raises concerns. These issues are increasingly subject to scrutiny and range from difficulty in finding or creating training and testing data relevant to the military domain, to (harmful) biases in training data sets, as well as their susceptibility to cyberattacks and interference (for example, data poisoning). Yet pathways and governance solutions to address these issues remain scarce and very much underexplored.

This paper aims to fill this gap by first providing a comprehensive overview on data issues surrounding the development, deployment and use of AI. It then explores data governance practices from civilian applications to identify lessons for military applications, as well as highlight any limitations to such an approach. The paper concludes with an overview of possible policy and governance approaches to data practices surrounding military AI to foster the responsible development, testing, deployment and use of AI in the military domain.

CIGI Papers No. 308 — October 2024