No sales after midnight: evaluating the impact of a business curfew on drug-related crime in San Francisco’s tenderloin

By Mirko Nazzari, Marco Calaresu, Moris Triventi

Business curfews are emerging as regulatory policy instruments to reduce crime in high-risk areas, yet rigorous evaluations remain limited. This study examines San Francisco’s Tenderloin Retail Hours Restriction Pilot, which required select businesses to close from 12:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. starting July 2024. Using a customized Bayesian Structural Time Series model, we estimate a 56% reduction (95% credible interval: −72% to −27%) in drug-related incidents during curfew hours over nine months, with no evidence of spatial displacement to nearby areas or temporal displacement within the Tenderloin Public Safety Area. Results hold under CausalARIMA sensitivity tests. Findings suggest curfews may reduce opportunities for street-level drug activity, but potential economic costs and questions about longterm sustainability underscore the need for careful policy design.