Deporting to Danger: How potential US migrant expulsions to Libya could feed into the country's criminal economy and instability

By Matt Herbert

On 7 May 2025, reports emerged that the US was preparing to deport irregular migrants to Libya. While no deportations had occurred as of mid-May, and the US government has neither confirmed nor denied such plans, the potential for expulsions has raised urgent concerns among international observers, particularly regarding Libya’s fragility, human rights conditions, and entrenched criminal economies.

This publication explores the multifaceted risks associated with these possible transfers. Authored by Dr. Matt Herbert, the report presents a detailed analysis of how migrant expulsions could exacerbate instability in Libya and fuel smuggling and extortion networks.

The brief underscores that deportations would risk reinforcing cycles of violence and impunity, placing vulnerable individuals in harm’s way and undermining regional stability. Rather than viewing deportations through short-term political calculus, the US should assess the long-term risks to its broader interests in Libya and the region that such a policy would entail.

Geneva: Global Initiative AGainst Transnational Organized Crime, 2025. 17p.