By Lucy Hovil, Sasha Jesperson and Jennifer Vallentine, with assistance from Julia Litzkow, Maël Galisson and Hugo Eduardo Jovel Majano

Against the backdrop of increasingly restrictive migration policies, this study explores recent irregular migration dynamics to the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom(UK). It aims to understand how migration and smuggling dynamics have shifted since 2023 and the impact of these shifts on people on the move. It also considers the trends and changes that may continue to emerge in the face of increasing migration restrictions in Europe.

Mixed Migration Centre, 2025. 43p.

By Lucy Hovil, Sasha Jesperson and Jennifer Vallentine, with assistance from Julia Litzkow, Maël Galisson and Hugo Eduardo Jovel Majano

Against the backdrop of increasingly restrictive policies, this study explores recent irregular migration dynamics to the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom(UK). The study combined desk research with 43 key informant interviews and 52 in-depth interviews with migrants in Europe who had travelled between mid-2023 and the time of the interview in 2024. It focuses on three key routes into the EU, including the Central Mediterranean route (CMR), the two major routes into Spain – the Western Mediterranean route (WMR) and the Northwest African (Atlantic route) – as well as the English Channel crossing into the United Kingdom1, to understand how migration and smuggling dynamics have shifted since 2023, as well as the impact of these shifts on people on the move. It also considers the trends and changes that may continue to emerge in the face of increasing migration restrictions in Europe. Key findings Despite a downturn in arrivals between 2023 to 2024, the demand for irregular migration remains strong Overall, the numbers of arrivals into Europe in 2024 was lower than in 2023. However, the drivers of migration remain strong, and the hostile environment toward migrants in transit countries also continues to rise. As a result, demand for irregular migration continues, as do movements across the Mediterranean and Atlantic into the EU, and across the channel into the UK. The recent decline in numbers is likely indicative of a short-term fluctuation, rather than the beginning of the end of irregular sea movements to the EU. The push to attempt the Mediterranean or Atlantic crossing to the EU is likely to remain constant – if not grow. There have been considerable fluctuations across the major routes into the European Union; as one route declines, others surge or re-emerge An overall decrease in numbers between 2023 and 2024 was aided by decreased movements along the Western Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean Routes. However, simultaneously there were upticks in movements along the Atlantic route, English Channel crossing and Eastern Mediterranean route2. Figures towards the end of 2024 on the CMR also suggest an upwards trend that may continue into 2025. While politicians have claimed that the various agreements and policies implemented in 2023 and 2024 appear to have successfully reduced arrivals, along the CMR in particular, it still remains the most frequented irregular sea route into mainland Europe. Further, other routes, for example the Atlantic route, have (re)emerged. Historically the CMR has seen fluctuations indicating it could easily increase once more, exactly as it did from 2021 onwards after the previous big decrease post-2017. Smuggling operations continue to adapt (and thrive) in the face of policy changes Smuggling networks are agile and adaptable, deploying new strategies to circumvent counter-smuggling initiatives. Instead of extinguishing supply, stricter policies, particularly on the CMR, English Channel and Atlantic routes, have resulted in increasingly adaptive and professionalised smuggler operations. While the WMR has been the least prominent route between 2023 and 2024, smuggling networks have not disappeared. Instead, they have diversified their operations, with evidence of involvement in other criminal activity, to ensure a continued income stream. This suggests that smuggler networks could easily be ready to return to, or expand migrant smuggling if demand returns. Hardline policies have not prevented irregular migration and only heightened risks for migrants Policy approaches across Europe continue to be led by political pressure to be seen as ‘tough on migration’, leading to prioritising the control of movement and anti-smuggling measures over the creation of legal pathways and the protection of those moving. From the perspective of migrants, there is little evidence to suggest that deterrence policies do, indeed, deter people from seeking to move to Europe irregularly. As demand for irregular migration remains, migrants are likely to be more reliant on smugglers, as a way to bypass restrictions. The impact of restrictive policies on migrants is that sea crossings are taking longer, migrants are taking more circuitous journeys to avoid detection, and larger numbers are being crammed into boats lacking adequate safety equipment by unscrupulous smugglers. In addition to the risks at sea, migrants face increasingly hostile conditions when stuck in key transit countries, as those countries receive continued pressure from the EU to curb movements.

Denmark: Mixed Migration Centre (2025) 36p.

By Darlène Dubuisson, Patricia Campos-Medina, Shannon Gleeson, and Kati L. Griffith

This review examines the historical and contemporary factors driving immigrant worker precarity and the central role of race in achieving worker justice. We build from the framework of racial capitalism and historicize the legacies of African enslavement and Indigenous dispossession, which have cemented an exclusionary economic system in the United States and globally. We consider how racism and colonial legacies create migrant displacement and shape the experiences of immigrant workers. We also detail how racism permeates the immigration bureaucracy, driving migrant worker precarity. The traditional labor movement has played an important role in closing this gap, but increasingly so have worker centers and the immigrant rights movement as a whole. These partnerships have had to navigate coalitional tensions as they build new strategies for realizing immigrant worker rights.  

  Annu. Rev. Law Soc. Sci. 2023. 19:109–29 pages

By  Krystlelynn Caraballo and Volkan Topalli

Research suggests undocumented immigrants are vulnerable to
robbery, burglary, and car theft, but studies have focused exclusively on victims’ perspectives rather than those of street offenders. This study draws from in-depth, semi-structured inter views of 25 active street offenders from a major southeastern US city to understand offenders’ perspectives and motivations for
deciding whether to target immigrants. Our findings support that some street offenders explicitly select targets based on perceived individual and socio-structural risk factors and the assumption of undocumented status. These include objective and subjective assessments of immigrants’ reliance on cash-intensive employment, fear of deportation, and inability to access formal justice systems. Our interviews with offenders reveal they and their acquaintances rely on mainstream stereotypes of immigrants (documented and undocumented) and of Latinx populations to determine vulnerability, select targets, and to a lesser extent.

Justice Quarterly, 40(1); 2023, 31p.

By Daniil MENSHYKOV, Tetiana PRODAN, Halyna LUTSYSHYN, Maksym IATSYNA, Arzu HADZHIIEVA

The aim of the study is to assess the impact of migration indicators on the crime rates in selected countries. The research employed cluster, correlation and regression analyses as the main methods. The analysis established that the impact of migration on crime in different countries differs significantly in terms of strength and direction. In particular, it was found that the increased share of refugees in the population of Egypt, Mauritius and the USA is associated with the decreased Crime Index. The obtained results indicate that the degree and direction of the influence of migration on crime depends on the specific situation in the country, which covers various aspects of social, political, economic and other dimensions. The conclusions of the research can be useful for shaping migration policy and preventing bias in this process

Revista Jurídica Portucalense nº 36 (2024) - Transnational Law

By Luisa Feline Freier & Leda M. Pérez

This article examines how Venezuelan forced migrants in Peru experience xenophobic discrimination, which has become increasingly linked to their criminalisation as thieves and murderers. Based on 12 months of qualitative fieldwork, including 72 in-depth interviews, five focus groups, and a survey (N116) in five Peruvian cities, we explore how Venezuelans experience, and make sense of, discrimination and criminalisation in everyday life. First, we discuss how criminalisation compares to general xenophobic discrimination, and other types of discrimination experiences. Second, we juxtapose the prevalence of xenophobic discrimination and criminalisation experiences across the five cities of our study, and between public spaces and the workspace. We then move to the qualitative discussion of the criminalisation experience in these different spaces. Fourth, we discuss how Venezuelan migrants perceive this criminalising discrimination as linked to their villanisation in the media and political discourses. Finally, we discuss our findings and make suggestions for further research. The paper contributes to the literature on migrant criminalisation by exploring how criminalisation processes play out in the context of large-scale intraregional forced displacement in the global South.

European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research

Volume 27, pages 113–133, (2021)

By Brian G. Knight and Ana Tribin 

This paper investigates the link between violent crime and immigration using data from Colombian municipalities during the recent episode of immigration from Venezuela. The key finding is that, following the closing and then re-opening of the border in 2016, which precipitated a massive immigration wave, homicides in Colombia increased in areas close to the border with Venezuela. Using information on the nationality of the victim, we find that this increase was driven by homicides involving Venezuelan victims, with no evidence of a statistically significant increase in homicides in which Colombians were victimized. Thus, in contrast to xenophobic fears that migrants might victimize natives, it was migrants, rather than natives, who faced risks associated with immigration. Using arrests data, there is no corresponding increase in arrests for homicides in these areas. Taken together, these results suggest that the increase in homicides close to the border documented here are driven by crimes against migrants and have occurred without a corresponding increase in arrests, suggesting that some of these crimes have gone unsolved.  

Working Paper 27620

Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020. 34p.

By Dinu Ostavciuc, Gina Aurora Necula

The Art. in question is dedicated to the specificity of detecting the evidence of an offence and its prosecution, particularly referring to the organised illegal migration, both from the point of view of criminal science and from the point of view of the criminal lawsuit. The subject under investigation here is both practically and legislatively sensitive. The aim of the research is to establish and elucidate the legal interactions, as well as to develop a practical algorithm for law enforcement authorities to detect evidence of organised illegal migration. The study comes with recommendations for law enforcement and prosecution bodies applicable both to the stage of establishing reasonable suspicion of committing the crime of organised illegal migration and to the stage of criminal prosecution initiation. At the same time, we aim at pointing out those features of the initial actions of the law enforcement bodies to which attention should be drawn and the indicated actions should be carried out in order to decide whether or not the conditions of the specified crime are met. The research comes up with findings, recommendations and proposals of lex ferenda, in order to reach the top effectiveness of the organised illegal migration investigation, implicitly that the investigating and prosecuting authorities detect the evidence of organised illegal migration crime within a reasonable extend of time and expeditiously start the prosecution, with respect to the principle of formality of the criminal process.

Fiat Iustitia, Issue Year: 2/2023, 16p.

By Olivier Marie and Paolo Pinotti

In the late 1920s, President Herbert Hoover appointed a National Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement to address rising concerns about crime. The Commission dedicated one of its final reports to the issue of “Crime and the Foreign Born,” which begins by noting that “[t]he theory that immigration is responsible for crime . . . is almost as old as the colonies planted by Englishmen on the New England coast” (National Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement 1931, p. 23). Almost a century later, concerns about crime remain one of the most frequently expressed reasons for public opposition to immigration in countries around the world. Figure 1 plots the share of respondents in OECD countries worried that “immigrants increase crime” against the share of respondents worried that “immigrants take jobs away from natives,” which is another prominent public opinion concern (for example, Mayda 2006; Haaland and Roth 2020). Most countries lie  well above the 45-degree line, meaning that more people worry about the crime effects of immigration than about its labor market effects. This pattern holds especially for countries with a higher share of migrants over total population, indicated by larger circles. Evidence on the evolution of beliefs concerning immigrants and crime over time can be documented using survey evidence from the United States. For the past 30 years, Gallup has regularly surveyed a representative sample of Americans, asking them to consider various topics and “say whether immigrants to the United States are making the situation in the country better or worse, or not having much effect.” 1 When the topic is “the crime situation,” half or more of the Americans surveyed have answered “worse” in almost every wave. If these views have lately somewhat improved, with 42 percent of respondents choosing “worse” in 2019, this answer was still 18 points higher than the proportion answering that immigrants worsen their job opportunities in the same year. Perhaps surprisingly, economists have only recently begun to investigate the links between immigration and crime in a systematic way. Advances in methodology and data quality during the past few decades have made it possible to go beyond simple correlations and to assess the causal impact of immigration on crime. This evolution has had much in common with the study of the labor market effects of migration depicted in this journal by Peri (2016). In this paper, we first describe recent international trends in immigration and crime, exploring why migrants may at first appear much more criminally active in certain countries. We then discuss the theoretical framework and methodological tools that economists have used in thinking about the relationship between immigration and crime. We assess what these approaches have produced in various contexts as to the causal impact of immigration levels on crime rates. We review the evidence on this point so far, which overwhelmingly suggests that immigrants do not increase crime levels in the communities where they settle, and confirm this overall null-effect conclusion using newly collected international data. Finally, we consider the evidence on the links between access to legal work and the crime propensity of different kinds of immigrants, including refugees and those with irregular legal status. The relatively few papers that have probed this issue all conclude that legal status and work permits strongly decrease the probability that immigrants will become involved in crime.      

Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 38, Number 1—Winter 2024—Pages 181–200 

By Dany Bahar; Meagan Dooley; Andrew Selee

The sudden, large-scale movement of nearly 5.2 million Venezuelans out of their country, most since 2014, with more than 4.2 million of them settling in other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, has raised concerns about how this is affecting receiving communities, with some politicians and pundits claiming that these new arrivals are leading to a rise in crime. Yet few studies have been conducted in the region that examine whether and what type of link may exist between immigration and crime, in part because immigration at this scale is a relatively new phenomenon in most Latin American countries, and this particular mass migration is so recent.1 This issue brief explores data in the three countries with the largest number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees as of 2020—Colombia, Peru, and Chile, which together host more than 2 million Venezuelan nationals—to better understand whether and what sort of relationship exists between this immigration and crime rates. Some of the datasets used are publicly available, while others were obtained by the authors through direct requests to government agencies. For each country, this study analyzes crime data, when possible disaggregated by nationality, and data on the presence of Venezuelans at the subnational level (though the available data do not allow for this to be done in exactly the same way in all three countries). For the most part, analysis of data from 2019 suggests that Venezuelan immigrants commit substantially fewer crimes than the native born, relative to their share in the overall population, signaling that public perceptions on newcomers driving up crime rates are misleading. In Chile, for example, only 0.7 percent of people indicted for crimes in 2019 were Venezuelan nationals, even though Venezuelans made up 2.4 percent of the population. Similarly, in Peru, where this analysis uses imprisonment data as a proxy for crime rates, 1.3 percent of those in prison were foreign born—of any nationality—as of 2019, whereas Venezuelan nationals make up 2.9 percent of the country’s overall population. For the most part, analysis of data from 2019 suggests that Venezuelan immigrants commit substantially fewer crimes than the native born. In Colombia this relationship holds true for violent crimes, as Venezuelan nationals comprised 2.3 percent of arrests for violent crimes in 2019, while they represent 3.2 percent of the population. For crimes overall, however, the picture is more mixed, as 5.4 percent of all arrests were of Venezuelans, a rate higher than their share of the population. Most of these crimes were reported in border regions, perhaps a reflection of the illicit smuggling networks that operate across the Colombian-Venezuelan border. In exploring plausible explanations for crime rates in different parts of the country, it appears that the regions in which Venezuelans were responsible for higher shares of crimes are also those where Venezuelans face higher rates of unemployment. This finding is consistent with the literature that suggests granting migrants and refugees formal labor market access can reduce the incidence of crime among this population. The data in this study provide strong evidence that the presence of Venezuelan immigrants is not leading to increased crime in the region—certainly not in the three countries that have received the largest number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees. Indeed, in most cases they tend to commit a smaller share of crimes than their proportion of the population. Even in the one case where the results are more ambiguous—Colombia—they are more involved in minor crimes and far less involved in major crimes than their population share. These results suggest that fears about Venezuelan newcomers driving up crime are simply misplaced. Sudden mass migration certainly presents challenges to receiving societies, but, at least in this case, a major crime wave is not one of them. 

Washington, DC; Brookings Institute, 2020. 27p.

By Abdihakim Hussein, Emily Nye

Forced migration is an increasingly common feature in international relations, and the mass migration of Venezuelans to Colombia provides an opportunity to analyze how strategic narratives can support a welcoming migration and integration policy. Because Colombia is a country with no history of immigration and no established anti-immigrant group, its experience provides unique insight into the impact and limitations of positive migration narratives. While Colombia's migration policy and humanitarian narrative have garnered praise internationally, this praise has not been matched by a sense of urgency for action, attention, or funding. Domestically, the policy response to mass Venezuelan migration has met international standards. Moreover, the country has experienced relatively little unrest compared to other host countries in Latin America. There is, however, ample evidence that Colombian perceptions of increased Venezuelan migration are negative and that tension and scapegoating are on the rise. Given these contradictions, this article reviews and discusses how and why Colombia's positive, humanitarian narratives have succeeded, as well as these narratives' limitations and need for adjustments. Together, these insights can help other host nations craft more effective and truthful migration strategic narratives.

Global Policy. 2024;15(Suppl. 3):83–92

By Robert M. Adelman , Yulin Yang , Lesley Williams Reid , James D. Bachmeier & Mike Maciag

The debate about undocumented immigration and its potential relation to crime continues to boil in the United States. We study this relationship by using two sets of estimates for the 2014 undocumented foreign-born population in U.S. metropolitan areas acquired from the Pew Research Center and the Migration Population Institute, 2013-2015 FBI Uniform Crime Report data, and 2011-2015 American Community Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau, to model the association between undocumented immigration and violent and property crime. Findings are consistent across all estimates of metropolitan undocumented populations. Net of relevant covariates, we find negative effects of undocumented immigration on the overall property crime rate, larceny, and burglary; effects in models using violent crime measures as the outcomes are statistically non-significant. Although the results are based on cross-sectional data, they mirror other research findings that immigration either reduces or has no impact on crime, on average, and contributes to a growing literature on the relationship between immigration and crime.

Journal of Crime and Justice, Volume 44, Issue 4 (2021)

By Bali Process RSO and MMC

Highlights

85% of respondents did not consider regular migration, primarily because regular pathways were not accessible to them.

The Rohingya face specific problems: their statelessness effectively bar them from regular pathways. 92% of Rohingya respondents—the highest among all respondents— reported that they did not consider regular migration pathways. 91% reported encountering protection incidents, compared to 47% of other Myanmar ethnic groups.

Overall, a notable portion of respondents indicated that they did not actively seek information before migrating. A higher proportion of women (41%) reported not actively seeking any information before migration, compared to men (29%).

Despite the presence of various formal awareness programs, only 4% of respondents received information from a formal programme before their journey. There appears to be a large disconnect between formal information channels and the informal networks that refugees and migrants actually rely on for advice.

Decision-Making Patterns: Awareness of risks doesn’t always deter irregular migration—98% of Indonesian respondents would still choose the same pathway, even though 45% recognize its negative aspects.

Bangkok, Regional Support Office of the Bali Process : Geneva, Mixed Migration Centre, 2025. 67p.

Edited by Lorenzo Guadagno and Lisette R. Robles

Forced population movements are a defining feature of almost any humanitarian crisis, shaping the design, targeting, and delivery of emergency responses. This book investigates how the evolving situation of different forced migrants is accounted for and addressed in humanitarian action in order to improve their access to support and assistance. Bringing together case studies from Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Pacific, this book focuses on a diversity of operational modalities and types of assistance provided by both traditional and non-traditional humanitarian actors to address the specific needs of displaced children, women, people with disabilities and older people, as well as trafficked migrant workers. This book adopts a broad perspective on humanitarian action, acknowledging how its boundaries are challenged and expanded in forced migration contexts. Its operational and theoretical insights will be useful for a range of readers, from humanitarian and migration researchers and students to practitioners and policymakers.

London and New York: Routledge, 2025. 205p.

By Asha Jeffers

Human trafficking has generated intense global concern, with stories of sex slavery and images of women forced into prostitution so persuasive that states have raced to respond ahead of empirical data and clear definitions of the crime. In Trafficking Rhetoric, Annie Hill analyzes the entanglement of state veneration and state violence by tracking how the United Kingdom points to the alleged crimes of others in order to celebrate itself and conceal its own aggression. Hill compares the UK’s acclaimed rescue approach to human trafficking with its hostile approach to migration, arguing that they are two sides of the same coin—one that relies on rhetorical constructions of “trafficked women” and “illegal migrants” to materialize the UK as an Anglo-white space.Drawing from official estimates, policy papers, NGO reports, news stories, and awareness campaigns and situating them in the broader EU context, Hill accounts for why the UK’s anti-trafficking agenda emerged with such rhetorical force in the early twenty-first century. Trafficking Rhetoric reframes controversies over labor, citizenship, and migration while challenging the continued traction of race-baiting and gender bias in determining who has the right to live, work, and belong in the nation.

Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2025.

Edited by Maurizio Ambrosini, Marilisa D’Amico, Emilia Perassi

In an era marked by rising securitarian policies and contested human mobility, Borders, Migrations, and Human Rights offers a rigorous and interdisciplinary examination of the complex relationship between state sovereignty, migration, and fundamental rights. Edited by Maurizio Ambrosini, Marilisa D’Amico, and Emilia Perassi, this volume brings together leading scholars to analyze the resurgence of border enforcement as a central political priority, often at the expense of international legal obligations and human dignity.Drawing from sociology, law, history, psychology, and literary studies, the book interrogates the evolving functions of borders—not only as physical demarcations but as sites of legal, political, and social contestation. Contributors explore topics such as the securitization of migration, the constitutional rights of migrants, EU border policies, the criminalization of solidarity, and the narratives of border-crossing in literature and cultural discourse. Through this multi-faceted lens, the volume reveals how contemporary border practices reshape democratic societies, challenge human rights principles, and expose the persistent tensions between national security and universal justice.A product of the CRC “Migrations and Human Rights” initiative at the University of Milan, this book is essential reading for scholars, policymakers, and advocates engaged in the urgent debates on migration governance and human rights in the 21st century.

Milano – Italy : Ledizioni - LediPublishing, 2025. 253p.