By Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Jessica Bracco, Andres Ham Gonzalez, Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco:

We study how drug-related violence affects emigration from Central America, a region with rapidly rising migration to the United States. Using multiple data sources, we apply an instrumental variables strategy based on proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. We find that violence significantly increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate—especially to the U.S.—with stronger effects among young and high-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests this response is driven by declining economic activity and, more importantly, deteriorating labor market conditions caused by escalating violence.

IZA DP No. 18028 Bonn: ZA – Institute of Labor Economics, 2025. 74p.