By Anneliese N. Luck

Jail incarceration remains an overlooked yet crucial component of the U.S. carceral system. Although a growing literature has examined the mortality costs associated with residing in areas with high levels of incarceration, far less is known about how local jails shape this burden at the intersection of race, sex, and age. In this study, I examine the relationship between county-level jail incarceration and age-specific mortality for non-Hispanic Black and White men and women, uniquely leveraging race-specific jail rates to account for the unequal racial distribution of jail exposures. This study finds evidence of positive associations between mortality and jail incarceration: this association peaks in late adulthood (ages 50–64), when increases in jail rates are associated with roughly 3% increases in mortality across all race–sex groups. However, patterns vary at the intersection of race, sex, and age. In particular, I find more marked and consistent penalties among women than among men. Additionally, a distinctly divergent age pattern emerges among Black men, who face insignificant but negative associations at younger ages but steep penalties at older ages—significantly larger among those aged 65 or older relative to their White male and Black female counterparts. Evidence further suggests that the use of race-neutral incarceration measures in prior work may mask the degree of harm associated with carceral contexts, because the jail rate for the total population underestimates the association between jail rates and mortality across nearly all race–age–sex combinations. These findings highlight the need for future ecological research to differentiate between jail and prison incarceration, consider the demographic distribution of incarceration's harms, and incorporate racialized measures of exposure so that we may better capture the magnitude of harm associated with America's carceral state.

Demography (2024) 61 (5): 1455–1482.

By Hanna Hernandez, M.A. & Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry

Rates of recidivism have been commonly used as a key measure for public safety and in assessing the effectiveness of the criminal justice system – sentencing, jails, prisons, community supervision, treatment, and reentry programming. Tracking recidivism can provide necessary information to support successful integration into the community following a prison sentence – which promotes community and public safety. Furthermore, understanding the individuals who are more likely to recidivate, and assessing demographic differences over the years can provide even more knowledge for supporting successful reentry. To evaluate long-term recidivism in Washington, the Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2021 State Justice Statistics (SJS) grant from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Under this grant from BJS, the SAC first drew on publicly available data from the Washington State Department of Corrections (DOC) to evaluate the long-term recidivism trends of incarcerated individuals released from prison (Georgoulas-Sherry & Hernandez, 2024). To expand on the findings, this report utilizes the same cohort to further evaluate the racial and sex similarities and differences in recidivism rates. 

Olympia, WA:  Washington State Statistical Analysis Center, 2024. 31p.

By Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry,  & Hanna Hernandez

Jail populations continue to be under-evaluated and under-researched. While there is a plethora of research on correctional incarcerated populations, there is a need to better assess jail populations as more people interact with these institutions. To evaluate and research this population, the Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2021 State Justice Statistics (SJS) grant from Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Under this grant from BJS, the SAC will draw on the Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs (WASPC)'s Jail Booking and Reporting System (JBRS) to evaluate the potential demographic disparities by rates of days in jail and by rates of recidivism. Main conclusions: 1. The proportion of jailed individuals who spent an above average number of days in jail during their initial booking was higher for males, higher for individuals who were part of the BIPOC community and decreased with an increased age of 36 years of age and older. 2. On average, male jailed individuals who recidivated had more days in jail for their initial booking. And, on average, non-BIPOC jailed individuals who recidivated had more days in jail for their initial booking than BIPOC jailed individuals who recidivated. 3. The proportion of jailed individuals who spent an above average number of days in jail following recidivism was higher for males, and BIPOC jailed individuals who recidivated had more days in jail following recidivism. Age did not impact the number of days in jail following recidivism.

Olympia, WA: Washington State Statistical Analysis Center, 2022. 21p.

By Michael F. TenEyck, Sarah A. El Sayed, Clay M. Driscoll and Krysta N. Knox

Racial inequality in arrest is a social problem that has challenged the United States for as long as police records have been kept. Prior work documents the extent of the disparity and observational studies have attempted to sort out the mechanisms that explain why the disparity exists. Building on the “constructivist” perspective of race, the current study draws on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) to assess the degree to which race and skin color explain the observed racial disparity in criminal justice contact and arrest. Results revealed that controlling for criminal behavior and a host of covariates, neither race nor skin color increased the likelihood of police contact. Race, however, was predictive of an increase in the odds of arrest—with Black respondents being 92% more likely to experience arrest than White respondents—and this relationship remained controlling for the effects of skin color, police contact, and prior criminal behavior. These findings suggest that the “race effect” may be due to unobserved biases not related to skin color.

Racial inequality in outcomes related to criminal justice contact and processing is a longstanding topic of concern. Recent evidence suggests that while White individuals are more likely to experience police contact, racial/ethnic minorities are disproportionately arrested when contacted (Beck, 2021; Harrell & Davis, 2020). Additionally, changes in policing techniques have led to increases in police contact and arrests. During the early to mid-2000s, nearly 90 percent of police stops did not result in arrests whereas recent data indicates that now only 65% of police stops do not result in arrests (Novak & Gilbreath, 2023). Findings like this have raised many questions among social scientists. One such question draws attention to the potential sources of the inequality. Is it that criminal justice professionals act discriminatorily? Is it that racial minorities are overinvolved in criminal behavior? Or is the answer more complicated?

In the present study, we build on recent developments from epidemiology and sociology which conceptualizes race in the “constructivist” framework (Barnes, 2018; Sen & Wasow, 2016), meaning the term “race” is defined by more than just skin color. In the constructivist tradition, race captures various aspects of one's life including culture, ancestry, and socioeconomic opportunities. This framework conceptualizes race as a composite measure, such that statistically adjusting for its constituent parts will help to unpack the race effect. In this way, race is examined with more depth and moves past simply categorizing race by groups.

This provided the motivation for analyzing the impact, if any, of skin color on initial contact by police and adulthood arrest. While only briefly touched upon within the criminological literature (Alcalá & Montoya, 2018; Finkeldey & Demuth, 2021; Kizer, 2017), colorism—or the differential treatment of individuals based on the color of their skin—has been shown to offer lighter-skinned citizens more advantages and privileges than darker-skinned citizens (Dixon & Telles, 2017; Monk, 2014; Ryabov, 2016). If skin color has an impact and statistically adjusting for skin color reduces the effect of racial classification on arrest, then we can begin to better understand the “race effect” on the arrest. This is an important endeavor for at least two reasons. First, if skin color, even after adjusting for race, is a predictor of criminal justice processing, then this finding would support arguments that racial biases play a role in criminal justice contact. Second, if skin color is not found to predict criminal justice processing after adjusting for race, it would suggest that other components of the race variable are the mechanisms of action causing racial inequalities.

We believe this is both a timely and broadly important research focus given the increasing scrutiny placed on American criminal justice professionals, especially police officers, and the racial inequality narratives that increasingly dominate colloquial conversation (Trinkner et al., 2019). The findings from this study could help shape the national narrative by identifying the potential sources in need of intervention to reduce the prevalence of inequalities in criminal justice outcomes and aid in criminal justice reforms. But first, the following section will review the available literature that speaks to the association between race and contact with the criminal justice system, the impact of race and skin color on police contact and arrest, and then end with a theoretical framework for the current study

Race and Justice Volume 0: Ahead of Print, 2024