By The United Nations Development Programme  

The surge in violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa undermines hard-won development gains and threatens to hold back progress for generations to come. The need to improve understanding of what drives violent extremism in Africa, and what can be done to prevent it, has never been more urgent. Sub-Saharan Africa has become the global epicenter of violent extremist activity. Worldwide deaths from terrorism have declined over the past five years, but attacks in this region have more than doubled since 20161. In 2021, almost half of all terrorism-related deaths were in sub-Saharan Africa, with more than one-third in just four countries: Somalia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. Violent extremism (VE) has also spread to other parts of the continent, such as Mozambique, and is having a devastating impact on lives, livelihoods, and prospects for peace and development. This is despite an astounding wealth of endogenous resilience manifested by local communities across the continent, who have been at the forefront of prevention and innovative practices of building everyday peace in uncertain times. These dramatic shifts in violent extremist activity from the Middle East and North Africa to sub-Saharan Africa have garnered relatively little international attention in a world reeling from the impacts of an escalating climate crisis, increasing authoritarianism, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The surge in violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa undermines hard-won development gains and threatens to hold back progress for generations to come. The need to improve understanding of what drives it in Africa, and what can be done to prevent it, has never been more urgent. The United Nations Secretary-General’s 2021 report, Our Common Agenda, stresses the importance of an evidence-driven approach to address development challenges. In 2017, UNDP published a groundbreaking study, Journey to Extremism in Africa: Drivers, Incentives and the Tipping Point for Recruitment. This established a robust evidence base on the drivers of violent extremism, with important implications for policy and programming. As a major output of UNDP’s multi-year Programme on Preventing and Responding to Violent Extremism in Africa (2015-2022), the 2017 study informed and shaped UNDP’s approach across the continent, as well as its programming at national and regional levels. Based on the personal testimonies of former members of VE groups and a reference group of individuals living in similar at-risk circumstances, the 2017 study revealed the amalgam of macro-, meso- and microlevel factors driving violent extremism in Africa, as well as sources of resilience that can prevent its spread. It concluded that effective responses to violent extremism require a multifaceted, development-focused approach, with development actors uniquely placed to address the structural drivers. It also highlighted the very localized and fast-changing nature of violent extremism, underscoring the importance of regular research to understand the evolution of its drivers and dynamics. Importantly, the 2017 study put in stark relief the question of how counter-terrorism and wider security functions of governments in at-risk environments conduct themselves about human rights, due process, and sensitivity to context. It thus underlined the United Nations 2016 Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism, which acknowledged that the traditional “single-minded focus only on security measures and an utter disregard for human rights have often made things worse.”  Despite the clear lessons on the limitations and risks of state-alone security-driven responses to violent extremism, militarized approaches have continued to predominate in sub-Saharan Africa over the past five years. Within the region, resources have increased for an array of multi-country military coalitions set up to conduct counter-terrorism operations. The international architecture for counter-terrorism has also expanded with the creation of more dedicated mechanisms, despite the limited evidence that such security-driven militarized responses, by themselves, would be effective in contributing to sustainable peace, security and stability. Indeed, despite more than a decade of security-driven responses underpinned by huge international investment, VE groups have extended their reach and impact markedly in the Sahel region and elsewhere on the African continent. Against this backdrop of the surge in violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa, and the continued prioritization of security-driven responses, UNDP initiated a follow-up study, Journey to Extremism in Africa: Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement in 2020. The research was developed to strengthen and refine the evidence base established in 2017, as well as to update and expand the scope of the research, tracking variations about the findings of the first report. The objectives were to further analyze the changing nature of violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa and take stock of efforts to prevent its spread since the 2017 study. In addition to analyzing the drivers, ‘tipping points’, and accelerators affecting recruitment to VE groups, the new research also explores pathways away from extremism. The second edition of the Journey to Extremism research focuses on eight countries across sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan. It reflects the life journeys of 2,196 interviewees, three times as many respondents as in the 2017 study. This includes over 1,000 former members of VE groups, both individuals who joined voluntarily and those who were forcibly recruited. Importantly, the sample also includes a significantly higher number of female interviewees (552). While more research is required on the experiences of women and girls about violent extremism, the gender-disaggregated findings of this study shed light on women’s and men’s divergent pathways to recruitment. The report presents the interview data about the changing nature of violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa and efforts to address it, providing a complementary analysis of the broader international policy context, trends in aid flows, and responses to violent extremism. 

New York: UNDP, 2023. 158p.