The impact of changes to liquor licensing policy on violent crime in NSW, 2000-2019

By  Ziyang Lyua, Suzanne Poyntonb and Scott A. Sissona

AIM To quantify the effects of individual liquor licensing policies introduced in New South Wales (NSW) over the last decade on rates of violent crime. METHOD: The effects of individual state-wide policies on non-domestic assaults in NSW and additional local policies in the Sydney Central Business District Entertainment Precinct (CBD) and the Kings Cross Entertainment Precinct (KCP) from 2000 to 2019 were quantified using time series intervention models. We used a vector auto regression (VAR) model to create counterfactual datasets. These datasets were derived from proxy data outside the study area and helped predict potential assault outcomes without the policy implementation. RESULTS: The liquor licensing policies introduced by the NSW Government between 2008 and 2018 contributed to a significant decline in non-domestic assaults, both in Sydney and across NSW. By the end of 2019, non-domestic assaults had reduced by an estimated 19% in NSW, 45% in the Sydney CBD, and 84% in the KCP. Policies restricting late night (or 24-hour) trading of licensed premises and those targeting enforcement toward the highest risk venues contributed most to these declines. CONCLUSION: This research adds to the mounting evidence that restricting trading hours can substantially reduce the risks associated with acute alcohol intoxication and can be a cost-effective crime reduction strategy when combined with enforcement that targets the small number of premises that account for most of the harm.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 263). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. , 2023. 27p.