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Does Weather Make People Kill Each Other: Correlation Between Weather Variables and Crime in Multiple Cities

By Jai Gupta

This article aims to explore the relationship between weather and crime by answering the question: To what extent does the weather in cities with varying year-round temperatures have different relationships with both property and violent crime? The current literature has found a significant correlation between the increase in outside temperature with the increase in crime. However, this relationship has not been compared between warm and cold cities with relatively similar city variables, such as demographics, poverty rates, and others. The researcher performed a quantitative, correlational, ex post facto study to address this gap in the literature. The researcher examined three weather variables: average average temperature, average high temperature, and average low temperature across six cities. These six cities were split into three pairs, each pair having a warm and cold city. The researcher found four principle findings: cities with colder year-round temperatures had a more significant correlation between weather and crime; of the weather variables examined, the average low temperature had the strongest relationship with crimes across all cities; between violent and property crime, property crime had a stronger correlation with all weather variables on average; and lastly, as temperature increases across all weather variables, crime, on average, also increased. While more research should be conducted, these findings hope to serve local policy makers and law enforcement on better predicting crime.

Unpublished paper,  (April 30, 2024).

Evidence-based policy in a new era of crime and violence prevention and social justice

By Brandon C. Welsh , Steven N. Zane ,Daniel P. Mears 

The present state of calls for and efforts to implement evidence-based policy provide a powerful foundation for propelling a movement toward bringing about rational, cost-efficient, and humane policies for reducing aggression, crime, and violence. The main aim of this article is to report on new developments in evidence-based policy (EBP)—what we view as giving rise to a new era in crime and violence prevention and social justice. The article describes major advances, both in research and policy, and discusses pressing challenges that confront EBP in crime/violence and justice, drawing on key findings from a new, comprehensive book project. The overall conclusion of the findings is heartening and yet sobering. Research and policy have made substantial progress, but there is much more to be done. The specific details of this work are organized around three questions that are foundational to evidence-based crime/violence and justice policy today: (a) How is research contributing to and guiding EBP? (b) What are productive and new ways to think about EBP? and (c) What are strategies for pro moting greater use of EBP?    

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 77, July–August 2024, 101940

The association between weather and the number of daily shootings in Chicago (2012–2016)

By Paul M. Reeping & David Hemenway 

Background: Previous studies have linked weather to crime and aggression but have not considered the causal structure of the variables included in the model(s).

Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from 2012 to 2016 to measure the association between weather and the number of shootings in Chicago. The number of shootings per day was obtained via the Chicago Tribune (2012–2016). Daily high temperature, humidity, wind speed, difference in temperature from historical average, precipitation type, and amount, were extracted via The Weather Underground. Weekends, holidays, and other non-school days were also included as possible effect measure modifiers. Causally adjusted negative binomial regressions were used to evaluate the associations between the exposures of interest and the daily number of shootings.

Results: A 10-degree (°C) higher temperature was significantly associated with 34% more shootings on weekdays and 42% more shootings on weekends or holidays. A 10-degree higher temperature than average was also associated with a 33.8% higher rate of shootings.

Conclusion: In recent years, shootings in Chicago were more likely to happen on warm days and especially during the weekends or holidays. This finding is in line with studies that have linked crime to higher temperatures and also suggests that shootings may be related to when individuals are outside and more likely to encounter violence. Interventions that keep people inside, such as air-conditioning and summer programs for students, might be effective in reducing the number of shootings in Chicago. We believe using a causal structure is useful for understanding the link between weather and shootings.

Injury Epidemiology volume 7, Article number: 31 (2020) 

Unauthorized Immigration, Crime, and Recidivism: Evidence from Texas By Michael T. Light

By Michael T. Light

Leveraging the Computerized Criminal History System (CCH), which provides case processing information for all arrests recorded in Texas between 2011 and 2018, this study explores the relationship between unauthorized immigration, crime, and recidivism. The first section compares the criminality of undocumented immigrants to legal immigrants and native-born U.S. citizens between 2012 and 2018 in Texas. The second section establishes the foundational empirics for general criminological literature on the immigration-homicide nexus. Key findings include: 1) Immigrants generally exhibit lower rates of serious violent crime in California and Texas. This is true for overall rates of violence and homicide. 2) Violent crime rates among immigrants in California are lower than among immigrants in Texas, and the relative gap between native and foreign-born individuals is considerably larger in California. 3) In both states, there is substantial heterogeneity in the immigration-homicide relationship by race/ethnicity and national origin. Generally speaking, immigrants from Asian countries have especially low rates of homicide offending. 4) Relative to the U.S.-born population, the criminal histories of immigrants arrested for violent crimes are both less extensive and less severe. Section 3 answers important questions about the extent to which immigrant criminality changed during the Trump administration. The authors find no evidence, descriptive or otherwise, to suggest that the transition from the Obama administration to the Trump administration had a meaningful effect on immigrant criminality, whether measured as violence, property, drug, or traffic offenses. Section 4 examines recidivism among the undocumented population and details the data limitations that caution against strong conclusions on this issue. Most notably, criminal justice databases rarely have information as to whether the defendant was eventually deported. As a result, researchers do not know if an individual restrains from recidivating or is simply removed from the country and is thus no longer at risk of recidivating.

Madison WI: University of Wisconsin 2022. 79p.

The Juvenile Judas—They Know Not What They Do: Neuroscience and the Juvenile Informant

By Laura Carlson  

American criminal jurisprudence relies on confidential informants: those individuals who agree to assist police in exchange for leniency. Facing little regulation by legislatures, law enforcement has raised an informant system premised on the exploitation of vulnerabilities and free from basic safeguards that would help to mitigate the moral, mental, and physical harm informants face in the field. While this is generally problematic, the issue becomes more pronounced when considering law enforcement’s use of juveniles to combat crimes perpetrated against and among children. A juvenile’s brain is developmentally distinct from an adult’s. During late adolescence, the brain goes through major maturation processes that significantly affect a juvenile’s ability to assess risk, make forward-thinking decisions, override emotions with logic, and resist social pressures. In other words, the juvenile brain is predisposed to act adverse to self-interests. Within the context of the modern informant system, juveniles engage with police on seriously disadvantaged ground; and because agreeing to assist police has proven to be a death sentence for some, the urgency with which this must be addressed cannot be overstated. America’s tolerance of police discretion with respect to the use of juvenile informants must end. Legislatures can facilitate change by implementing safeguards aimed at mitigating the risks posed by a juvenile’s physiological predispositions. Namely, legislatures should consider implementing mandatory cooling-off periods, a statutory right to counsel, mandatory parental and judicial consent, prescribed documentation and recordkeeping requirements, and enforced training regimens. Absent empirical data that youth at large are better protected by the abolition of the use of juvenile informants, legislatures looking to implement these suggestions or otherwise restrict the practice should be careful to balance proposed legislation with the needs of law enforcement. 

Arizona Law Review, 2023. 26p.

The Condemnation of Scopophilia: How the Federal Sentencing Guidelines Perpetuate Rather Than Discourage Child Pornography Offenses

By Christina Billhartz

In 1987, the U.S. Sentencing Commission created its first federal sentencing guideline for child pornography offenses. As Congress grappled with dynamic technological advances that changed the child pornography landscape, the Commission continually revised and amended these guidelines, creating the last significant amendment in 2009. For the past 12 years, these guidelines have been considered by federal court judges tasked with sentencing child pornography offenders, yet little has been done to determine whether or not these guidelines actually diminish the amount of children victimized by child pornography. While acknowledging that child pornography victimizes and harms children in countless ways and must be criminalized to account for these egregious harms, this Note argues that the sentencing guidelines fail to deter the production, distribution, and consumption of child pornography, and fail to fulfill congressional goals of protecting children from victimization. Rather, the guidelines have resulted in the mass incarceration of child pornography offenders and a system that punishes viewers of child pornography more severely than it does child rapists. If the government truly wants to protect children from being victimized through child pornography, then the sentencing guidelines, as written, cannot stand, and they must be replaced by a system that allows child pornography offenders to access rehabilitative resources both inside and outside of the federal prison system.

Arizona Law Review, 2021. 32p.

Has COVID-19 Changed Crime? Crime Rates in the United States during the Pandemic

By John H. Boman IV & Owen Gallupe 

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, state-level governments across the United States issued mandatory stay-at-home orders around the end of March 2020. Though intended to stop the spread of the COVID-19 virus, the lockdowns have had sweeping impacts on life in ways which were not originally planned. This study’s purpose is to investigate the extent to which governmental responses to COVID-19 have impacted crime rates in the U.S. Compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, crime – as measured by calls for service to law enforcement – has decreased markedly. However, there are multiple indications that the crime drop is being driven by decreases in minor offenses which are typically committed in peer groups. At the same time, serious crimes which are generally not committed with co-offenders (namely homicide and intimate partner violence) have either remained constant or increased. As such, the crime drop appears to be hiding a very disturbing trend where homicides remain unchanged and intimate partner batteries are increasing. Since many offenders would presumably be committing less serious crimes in a non-pandemic world, we raise attention to the possibility that mandatory lockdown orders may have taken minor offenders and placed them into situations where there is rampant opportunity for intimate partner violence, serious batteries, and homicides. While crime in the U.S. appears to be down overall, this good news should not blind us to a troubling co-occurring reality – a reality that paints a dim picture of unintended consequences to public health and criminal justice finances as a result of COVID-19 lockdowns.

American Journal of Criminal Justice, 2020. 9p.

Crime and Justice in India

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By N. Prabha Unnithan

Criminology and criminal justice is in its infancy in India. This book attempts to examine India's crime problem in detail and document if and how its criminal justice system has responded to emerging challenges and opportunities. The objective is to move beyond mere observations and thoughtful opinions, and make contributions that are the next steps in the development of an empirical (or evidence-based) criminology and criminal justice on this vast and diverse country-by focusing on research that is both balanced and precise. This book brings together a diverse set of 32 academics from India, the US, and the UK who have authored 19 chapters on many aspects of crime and justice in India. The organizational components or sectors of the criminal justice system are the police, the courts, and corrections. The studies collected here provide balanced coverage of the entire criminal justice system and not just one component of it. The first section of this book consists of overviews of several major issues that affect the entire criminal justice system. Section Two considers topics related to the gateway of the criminal justice system, policing. Section Three takes up the operational problems of criminal law and courts and Section Four deals with the difficult question of punishment and correction, the last part of the criminal justice system.

SAGE, 2013, 476 pages

Global Cybercrime: Federal Agency Efforts to Address International Partners' Capacity to Combat Crime

By U.S. Government Accountability Office

   The U.S. and its global partners are experiencing the effects of a massive cybercrime wave, which is growing in frequency and scale. In 2021, the Federal Bureau of Investigation received a record number of cybercrime complaints, over 840,000, with potential losses exceeding $6.9 billion. Further, in 2022, the intelligence community noted an increase in ransomware attacks by transnational criminals, which threaten to cause disruptions of critical services worldwide. GAO was asked to review federal efforts to build the capacity of allies and partner nations to combat cybercrime. This report’s specific objectives were to (1) describe challenges in building global capacity to combat cybercrime, and (2) determine actions selected federal agencies are taking to build foreign nations’ capacity to combat cybercrime and the extent to which they are evaluating the effectiveness of their efforts. GAO interviewed agency officials and convened a panel of experts representing entities focused on capacity building to combat global cybercrime. GAO also analyzed documentation from State, DOJ, and DHS, which provide the majority of U.S. capacity building assistance. What GAO Recommends GAO is making one recommendation to State to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of capacity building efforts to counter cybercrime. State concurred with the recommendation. 

 Washington, DC: GAO, 2023. 49p.

VIIOLENCE IN AMERICA VOL.2. PROTEST, REBELLION, REFORM.

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EDIYED BY TED ROBERT GURR

VIIOLENCE IN AMERICA VOL.2. PROTEST, REBELLION, REFORM dives deep into the complex tapestry of societal upheaval within the United States. This compelling volume explores the multifaceted nature of violence in various forms, from protests to rebellions, and the calls for reform that echo through the nation. Through a collection of thought-provoking essays and analytical pieces, this book sheds light on the struggles, triumphs, and challenges that define contemporary American society. A must-read for those seeking a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape of dissent and transformation in the United States.

NEWBURY PARK. SAGE. 1989. 372p.

VIOLENCE IN AMERICA. Vol. 1. The History of Crime

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Edited by Ted Robert Gurr

VIOLENCE IN AMERICA Vol. 1 explores the intricate tapestry of crime throughout the nation's history, shedding light on the various facets of violence that have shaped American society. From notorious outlaws of the Wild West to the rise of organized crime during Prohibition, this volume delves into the darker chapters of the past, offering a compelling narrative that examines the root causes and consequences of criminal activities. Through meticulous research and insightful analysis, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the history of crime in America, inviting readers to reflect on the enduring legacy of violence in a nation built on conflicting ideals.

Newbury Park. Sage. 1989. 281p.

The Professional Thief: Thirty years of "wheelin' and dealin'"

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Carl. B. Klockars

Step into the shadowy world of crime with "The Professional Thief", a gripping memoir detailing three decades of cunning thievery, intricate heists, and narrow escapes. In this riveting account, the author takes readers on a rollercoaster ride through the underbelly of society, offering a rare glimpse into the mind of a masterful criminal.

From the adrenaline-fueled world of high-stakes robberies to the intricate art of deception, "The Professional Thief" unveils the intricate techniques and strategies employed by a seasoned practitioner of the illicit trade. Through captivating storytelling and vivid anecdotes, the author paints a vivid picture of a life lived on the edge, where every job is a high-wire act and every score a gamble with fate.

As the pages unfold, readers are drawn into a world where loyalty is a luxury and betrayal lurks around every corner. With a keen eye for detail and a razor-sharp wit, the author navigates the treacherous waters of the criminal underworld, forging alliances, dodging police dragnets, and outsmarting rival thieves in a relentless pursuit of the next big score.

"The Professional Thief" is a compelling testament to the ingenuity, audacity, and sheer grit of those who make their living outside the law. An enthralling journey through the highs and lows of a life lived on the fringes of society, this book offers a rare insider's perspective on the dark and dangerous world of professional thievery.

NY. Macmillan. 1974. 251p.

ISLANDS IN THE STREET: Gangs and American Urban Society

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By MARTÍN SÁNCHEZ JANKOWSKI

The overall goal of the research in this book was to understand gang phenomenon in the United States. In order to accomplish this goal, the author investigated gangs in different cities in order to understand what was similar in the way all gangs behaved and what was idiosyncratic to certain gangs. The research for this book took place over ten years and five months from 1978 to 1989 and will give the reader a comprehensive overview of gang behavior in the United States in that time period. 

Berkeley. U.C. Press. 1991. 388p.

Divine Violence: Spectacle, Psychosexuality, & Radical Christianity In The Argentine "Dirty War"

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BY FRANK GRAZIANO

Providing an account of political repression in Argentina, this book takes as its theme the intersection of religion, violence and psychosexuality as they relate to the desire for power and to the myths and rituals manifesting that desire.

Avalon Publishing, Jun 4, 1992 , 328 pages

Cybercrime: The Transformation of Crime in the Information Age

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BY DAVID S. WALL

Looking at the full range of cybercrime, and computer security he shows how the increase in personal computing power available within a globalized communications network has affected the nature of and response to criminal activities. We have now entered the world of low impact, multiple victim crimes in which bank robbers, for example, no longer have to meticulously plan the theft of millions of dollars. New technological capabilities at their disposal now mean that one person can effectively commit millions of robberies of one dollar each. Against this background, David Wall scrutinizes the regulatory challenges that cybercrime poses for the criminal (and civil) justice processes, at both the national and the international levels.

Polity, 2007, 276 pages

Crime and Everyday Life. Second Edition

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By Marcus Felson

Entertainingly written and a model for how theory develops from empirical evidence, the Second Edition of this popular book is the perfect supplementary text for introductory criminology courses. The book provides an insightful analysis of the "other side" of crime causation, examining how society encourages or inhibits crime in the routine activities of everyday life.

SAGE Publications, Apr 13, 1998, 240 pages

CRIME CULTURE & VIOLENCE Understanding How Masculinity and Identity Shapes Offending

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By Katie Seidler

From prison interviews with violent offenders and a wealth of experience and research, psychologist Dr Katie Seidler explores the complex interaction between crime and culture. Featuring the voices of the offenders themselves, 15 convicted adult male violent offenders from various ethnic cultural communities explain their understanding, motivations and rationalisations for their actions and how these relate to questions of identity, community and responsibility within their cultural experience and values. In challenging current criminological theory, Dr Seidler suggests that offenders from group-oriented (collectivist) cultures offend for group-oriented reasons, whereas those from cultures prioritising individualism offend for individual reasons. This more nuanced understanding of crime and criminals within the context of culture adds significantly both to criminological theory, as well as providing suggestions for improvements to policing and offender management and rehabilitation within the criminal justice system.

Australian Academic Press, 2010

Offending by young people with disability: A NSW linkage study

By Stewart Boiteux and Suzanne Poynton 

AIM To describe rates of offending by young people with disability, and identify factors associated with their first contact with the youth justice system in NSW. METHOD A birth cohort of young people with disability residing in NSW was identified using State and Commonwealth information on health and disability service contacts from a large linked administrative dataset. Rates of offending were compared for young people with and without disability. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to examine factors associated with the initial offending contact for young people with disability in the birth cohort. Differences in offence types and court outcomes for young people with disability were compared with young people with no known disability. RESULTS Despite accounting for only 3.5% of the population, young people with disability comprised 7.7% of all young people who had at least one police caution, youth justice conference or court appearance before the age of 18 and 17.4% of those with at least one youth detention episode. On average, people with disability had their first contact with the NSW criminal justice system at an earlier age, had a higher frequency of contacts, and had a different profile of offence types compared to people without disability. Offenders with disability received diversionary outcomes under the Young Offenders Act 1997 (NSW) at a similar rate to offenders without disability, but for matters proceeding to court, young people with disability received section 32 and 33 dismissals under the (now repealed) Mental Health (Forensic Provisions) Act 1990 (NSW) at a much higher rate. For people with disability, factors such as a later age of initial contact with disability-related services, greater remoteness of residence, and frequency of child protection contact were strongly associated with the likelihood of having a police caution, youth justice conference or court appearance before the age of 18. CONCLUSION People with disability have higher rates of contact with the youth justice system than people without disability and are significantly overrepresented in the youth custody population.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 254). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research , 2023. 39p.

People with disability and offending in NSW: Results from the National Disability Data Asset pilot 

By Clare Ringland, Stewart Boiteux and Suzanne Poynton 

AIM To describe the proportion of people with disability in New South Wales who offend, and the proportion of offenders who have a disability, separately for young and adult offenders. METHOD Data were obtained for individuals in contact with the criminal justice system and/or specific disability support services between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018. For those who accessed these core disability support services (the “disability cohort”), we report frequencies and percentages relating to whether individuals had offending and/or custodial records during the 10-year period. Similarly, for the young and adult offender cohorts, we report frequencies and percentages relating to whether individuals had a disability, as per the disability cohort definition or a broader disability indicator. The following characteristics were also considered: age, sex, Aboriginality, type of disability (cognitive, psychosocial, physical), offence type (violent, domestic violence (DV) related, property), whether custodial episodes were sentenced episodes, and whether individuals were recorded as victims of crime during the same 10-year period. RESULTS Sixteen per cent of the disability cohort had a finalised matter (caution, youth justice conference, or court appearance) during the 10-year period; 5 per cent had a custodial episode. Across all offence types, rates were highest for those with psychosocial disability, particularly those with both cognitive and psychosocial disabilities. Rates were also higher for males (vs. females), for those aged 15–34 years (vs. <15 years and 35–64 years), for Aboriginal people, and for those recorded as victims of crime. Almost a quarter of young offenders were identified as people with disability (10% in the disability cohort), with rates of disability highest for DV offenders (42% identified with disability, 19% in the disability cohort). Similarly, 27 per cent of adult offenders were identified as people with disability (16% in the disability cohort), with highest rates of disability for property offenders (45% identified with disability, 25% in the disability cohort). Rates of disability were higher in Aboriginal offenders than non-Aboriginal offenders. Aboriginal offenders were also more likely than non-Aboriginal offenders to have been victims of crime during the period. For example, 90 per cent of Aboriginal female young offenders with disability were recorded as victims of crime during the period, versus 59 per cent of non-Aboriginal female young offenders with no identified disability. More than 2 in 5 young people and around 1 in 2 adults with sentenced custodial episodes were identified as people with disability.

CONCLUSION:  A significant proportion of young and adult offenders were identified as people with disability and many of these individuals had also been victims of crime. There is an urgent need for further disability focused research to identify opportunities for strengthened support and diversion for this vulnerable group

(Bureau Brief No. 164).

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2023. 22p

The increase in motor vehicle theft in NSW up to March 2023

By Alana Cook

Over the past two decades, there has been a long-term decline in motor vehicle theft. Stolen vehicle numbers reached an historic low in September 2021 following two COVID-19 lockdowns, steadily increasing since then. In March 2023 the number of vehicles stolen in NSW was higher than any month in the previous six years and increased 21.3% year-on-year. This paper considers the increase in motor vehicle theft up to March 2023 focusing on where the increase is most pronounced, which vehicles are affected, and who appears to be responsible. Key features of the recent increase in incidents of motor vehicle theft include: • The increase in vehicle theft is not uniform across NSW. In a number of regional locations vehicle theft has shown strong growth and is now much higher than at any point in previous five years. This applies to New England and North-West, Richmond-Tweed, Far West and Orana, Mid North Coast, and Central West. In New England and North West, for instance, vehicle theft was 67% higher in the year to March 2023 compared with five years earlier and the number of vehicles stolen in March 2023 (n=91) was the highest since records began in 1995. • This contrasts with the pattern of vehicle theft in other parts of NSW, particularly Greater Sydney, where the volume of vehicles stolen still remains lower than prior to the pandemic. In these locations, increases seem to simply reflect recovery from the COVID-related crime fall. • Vehicles stolen in Regional NSW are more likely to be recovered than vehicles stolen in Greater Sydney. This suggests motor vehicle theft in regional locations may be more likely to be conducted opportunistically for joyriding and transport purposes. • Young people appear to be responsible for the increase in vehicle theft in Regional NSW with a 179% increase in legal actions against this group over the five years to March 2023. A significant, but smaller increase in young people proceeded against in Greater Sydney was also observed (up 52%). • Theft patterns vary by vehicle make and year of manufacture. In the year to March 2023: š The most frequently stolen vehicles were manufactured by Toyota, Holden, and Ford, all of which are very common vehicles. š The vehicle makes with the highest rate of theft were Holdens, Jeeps, and Land Rovers. š Common vehicle makes with the largest percentage increase in theft in the five years to March 2023 were Kias, Jeeps, Isuzus, Land Rovers, and Volkswagens. š Older vehicles are much more susceptible to theft than recent models. • The recent increase in vehicle theft is at least partially a bounce-back from the COVID-driven crime declines of 2020 and 2021 as pandemic restrictions eased. Another factor, however, particularly in certain regional communities, may be associated with reports of social media posts encouraging vehicle theft on the platform TikTok. 

(Bureau Brief No. 166). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 11p