By  Ziyang Lyua, Suzanne Poyntonb and Scott A. Sissona

AIM To quantify the effects of individual liquor licensing policies introduced in New South Wales (NSW) over the last decade on rates of violent crime. METHOD: The effects of individual state-wide policies on non-domestic assaults in NSW and additional local policies in the Sydney Central Business District Entertainment Precinct (CBD) and the Kings Cross Entertainment Precinct (KCP) from 2000 to 2019 were quantified using time series intervention models. We used a vector auto regression (VAR) model to create counterfactual datasets. These datasets were derived from proxy data outside the study area and helped predict potential assault outcomes without the policy implementation. RESULTS: The liquor licensing policies introduced by the NSW Government between 2008 and 2018 contributed to a significant decline in non-domestic assaults, both in Sydney and across NSW. By the end of 2019, non-domestic assaults had reduced by an estimated 19% in NSW, 45% in the Sydney CBD, and 84% in the KCP. Policies restricting late night (or 24-hour) trading of licensed premises and those targeting enforcement toward the highest risk venues contributed most to these declines. CONCLUSION: This research adds to the mounting evidence that restricting trading hours can substantially reduce the risks associated with acute alcohol intoxication and can be a cost-effective crime reduction strategy when combined with enforcement that targets the small number of premises that account for most of the harm.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 263). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. , 2023. 27p.

By Jonathan Klick and John MacDonald

Objectives This study examines the impact of alcohol consumption in a Major League Baseball (MLB) stadium on area level counts of crime. The modal practice at MLB stadiums is to stop selling alcoholic beverages after the seventh inning. Baseball is not a timed game, so the duration between the last call for alcohol at the end of the seventh inning and the end of the game varies considerably, providing a unique natural experiment to estimate the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime near a stadium on game days. Methods Crime data were obtained from Philadelphia for the period 2006–2015 and geocoded to the area around the MLB stadium as well as popular sports bars. We rely on difference-in-differences regression models to estimate the change in crime on home game days around the stadium as the game time extends into extra innings to other areas of the city and around sports bars in Philadelphia relative to days when the baseball team plays away from home. Results When there are extra innings and more game-time after the seventh inning alcohol sales stoppage crime declines signifcantly around the stadium. The crime reduction beneft of the last call alcohol policy is undone when a complex of sports bars opens in the stadium parking lot in 2012. The results suggest that alcohol consumption during baseball games is a contributor to crime. Conclusions The fndings provide further support for environmental theories of crime that note the congregation of people in places with excessive alcohol consumption is a generator of violent crime in cities. The consumption of alcohol in MLB stadiums appears to increase crime.

Journal of Quantitative Criminology (2021) 37:813–834