By Brandon Tregle, Michael R. Smith, Chantal Fahmy & Rob Tillyer
Hot spots policing is an effective, evidence-based strategy that reduces violent crime within small geographic units, or “hot spots,” in urban areas. A strong body of research demonstrates that these hot spots disproportionately contribute to cities’ overall crime rates. However, the existing literature has yet to answer a critical question: Can the localized crime reductions achieved through hot spots policing make a significant enough contribution to lower overall crime rates across an entire city? To address this gap, we examined seven years of violent crime data from three major Texas cities. One city underwent a two-year targeted hot spots policing intervention, while the other two cities served as counter-factual, similarly situated jurisdictions. We used interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine longitudinal crime patterns in all three cities. The findings indicate that, compared to the control cities, the treatment city experienced a significant and substantial reduction in overall violent crime at the point of intervention. This decrease suggests that the hot spots intervention directly contributed to city-wide crime reduction, extending its impact beyond the designated hot spots.
Crime Sci 14, 3 (2025).
