By Merve Betül Gökçe, Murat Güray Kirdar:

This study investigates the impact of the Syrian civil war and refugee status on the risk of physical intimate partner violence (IPV) among Syrian women in Jordan, the country with the second-highest refugee-to-native ratio worldwide. We analyze data from the 2017-18 Jordan Population and Family Health Survey, which includes a nationally representative sample of Syrian refugees. Using the information on the timing of first violence after marriage within a discrete-time duration analysis, we examine the hazard rates of IPV exposure across different periods: prewar Syria, postwar Syria, and refugee status. Our findings demonstrate that war and refugee status increase the risk of IPV, and these findings persist for women who were married before the civil war. Additionally, the rise in IPV after the refugees' arrival in Jordan diminishes over time. The study identifies the economic strain resulting from lower household wealth and refugee husbands' employment losses as a driver of the rise in IPV. Moreover, our innovative approach utilizing GPS locations of refugee households to calculate refugee density reveals that greater social isolation, indicated by reduced proximity to other refugees, significantly exacerbates the risk of IPV among these women. In addition, we explore whether the civil war and refugee status alter marriage patterns, which could contribute to the observed effects on IPV. Both the civil war and forced migration lower the marriage age and increase the incidence of non-cousin marriages at the expense of cousin marriages—both of which are associated with a higher risk of IPV.

Bonn: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics, 2024. 61p.  

By Paul M. Barrett

The main finding of this report is that social science research reveals that social media platforms can be—and often are—exploited to facilitate political intimidation and violence. Certain features of social media platforms make them susceptible to such exploitation, and some of these features should be changed to reduce the danger. “ The main finding of this report is that social science research reveals that social media platforms can be—and often are— exploited to facilitate political intimidation and violence. ” Based on a review of more than 400 studies published by peer-reviewed journals and think tanks, the report provides a platform-by-platform survey focusing on the particular features of each site that make it susceptible to exploitation by extremists promoting intimidation and violence and/or seeking recruits for their various causes. The report emphasizes that neither subjective observation nor social science research indicates that social media platforms are the sole or even primary cause of political intimidation and violence. Other media and irresponsible political leaders play crucial roles. However, the use of social media can enable or facilitate violence in a fashion that deserves attention and mitigation. Most of this problem—extremism and occasional use of force for political ends—occurs on the political right. But the left is not immune to these pathologies. The platforms discussed in the following pages range from some of the best known, like Facebook and YouTube, to the more recently ascendant TikTok to those on the right-wing fringe, such as Gab, Parler, and 4chan. Among the features, we examine are: • Facebook’s Groups, which helped the sometimes-violent QAnon to grow into a full-blown movement devoted to the delusion that former President Donald Trump has secretly battled “deep state” bureaucrats and Satanic pedophiles.1 • Instagram’s comments function, which has allowed the Iranian government to threaten dissidents with sexual assault and death as a way of silencing them.2 • TikTok’s powerful recommendation algorithm, which in one experiment promoted violent videos, including incitement of students to launch attacks at school.3 After a case study of January 6 by our collaborators at Tech Policy Press, the report concludes with recommendations for industry and government.

NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights Leonard N. Stern School of Business 2024. 32p.  

By Paulo J Murillo-Sandoval1, Steven E Sesnie2, Manuel Eduardo Ordoñez Armas3, Nicholas Magliocca4, Beth Tellman5, Jennifer A Devine6, Erik Nielsen7 and Kendra McSweeney8,*

We assess how much of Central America is likely to be agriculturally suitable for cultivating coca (Erythroxylum spp), the main ingredient in cocaine. Since 2017, organized criminal groups (not smallholders) have been establishing coca plantations in Central America for cocaine production. This has broken South America's long monopoly on coca leaf production for the global cocaine trade and raised concerns about future expansion in the isthmus. Yet it is not clear how much of Central America has suitable biophysical characteristics for a crop domesticated in, and long associated with the Andean region. We combine geo-located data from coca cultivation locations in Colombia with reported coca sites in Central America to model the soil, climate, and topography of Central American landscapes that might be suitable for coca production under standard management practices. We find that 47% of northern Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize) has biophysical characteristics that appear highly suitable for coca-growing, while most of southern Central America does not. Biophysical factors, then, are unlikely to constrain coca's spread in northern Central America. Whether or not the crop is more widely planted will depend on complex and multi-scalar social, economic, and political factors. Among them is whether Central American countries and their allies will continue to prioritize militarized approaches to the drug trade through coca eradication and drug interdiction, which are likely to induce further expansion, not contain it. Novel approaches to the drug trade will be required to avert this outcome.

Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 104068  

By The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

Understanding the changing dynamics of heroin and methamphetamine flows from Afghanistan, through southwest Asia to Eastern and Southern Africa, continues to be important, particularly in light of the Taliban’s drug ban in Afghanistan and the harmful effects drugs have on the populations along the route. In order to improve information sharing and to help build connections between countries and International Organisations and to strengthen regional co-operation, UNODC held an Expert Working Group in Maputo, Mozambique during 10th-11th October 2023. Topics discussed at the EWG included an update on the current drug situation in Afghanistan, the opiate and methamphetamine flows from southwest Asia to Eastern and Southern Africa, regional drug seizures, the nature of organized crime groups and a summary of the drug demand situation in the region. The findings of the EWG are published in this report. This EWG report covers the flow and distribution of heroin along the Southern Route, highlighting key trends and vulnerabilities. Exploration of the routes utilized for drug trafficking sheds light on movements from Afghanistan into Eastern and Southern Africa, within Africa, and towards other destination countries. Moreover, an overview of the demand for illicit drugs in the region offers insights into the societal impact and challenges faced by communities. Insight into the fragmented groups and the critical role played by brokers, as well as the strong presence of criminal networks, provides valuable context on the organized crime landscape. Furthermore, the EWG discussed the regional cooperation efforts aimed at addressing drug trafficking challenges and promoting collective action underscores the importance of collaborative approaches in responding to the drug trade in the region. An examination of the policy and law enforcement responses implemented by affected countries provides valuable insights into national efforts to address the supply and demand dynamics. Analysis of the various modus operandi and trafficking methods employed by organized crime groups, including poly drug trafficking and links to other crime types, enhances understanding of the operational tactics used in the region. Finally, recommendations for policy interventions and follow-up actions aim to enhance counter-trafficking efforts and promote regional security and stability. Through a comprehensive examination of these topics, this report seeks to provide valuable insights and inform stakeholders on the complexities of drug trafficking along the Southern Route, with the ultimate goal of fostering effective strategies and initiatives to combat illicit drug trade in the region.   

 Vienna:  UNODC  2024. 36p.

By Néstor García-Barceló, Miguel Ángel Alcázar Córcoles, Javier Revuelta Menéndez, Penny Woolnough, José Luis González Álvarez 

The study explores in depth the relationship between missing persons’ psychosocial and criminological characteristics/circumstances and violent-fatal outcomes (suicide and homicide). A relational analytical explicative study of 929 cases and controls was designed using a retrospective and stratified design. Data gathering was conducted through the content analysis of judicial and police information, as well as the development of psychological autopsy techniques and semi-structured interviews with the persons involved in the missing person cases including offenders in prison. Bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques were utilized for analyses. The findings showed that there are different risk and protective factors which can distinguish between a good state of health, suicide, and homicide outcomes. This research entails implications for prevention and police risk assessment systems.. 

European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research (2024) 30:545–565 

By Marta Capinha, Daniel Rijo, Marco Pereira, Marlene Matos

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a major concern across the world, and its prevalence assessment has been a priority in numerous countries. However, data about IPV prevalence in Portugal is scarce and not up-to-date. This study aims to estimate IPV prevalence in Portugal. A community sample of 1392 adults (77.4% female, mean age=34.95 years, SD=12.80) was collected through a web-based survey, between March and June of 2020. Participants completed a socio-demographic questionnaire and the Conflict Tactic Scales-2 (CTS-2). Accounting for all forms of IPV, a past-year prevalence of 64.4% and 64.6% were found, for victimization and perpetration, respectively. Regarding gender or sexual orientation, no significant differences were found in the past-year or the lifetime prevalence, nor concerning frequency. Directionality and dyadic concordance types were analyzed and showed that most violence was bidirectional. Having perpetrated violence in previous intimate relationships was the most influential factor when predicting past-year perpetration or victimization. Other significant predictors were age, being victimized before 15 years old, cohabitation with an intimate partner, and drug use, but the last two were only significant for victimization. Findings support the idea that IPV is a relevant phenomenon, regardless of gender and sexual orientation. It is the first nationwide, gender-inclusive study to do so in Portugal. Studies based on different samples might provide important evidence to prevent hasty conclusions about IPV prevalence and patterns and to guide empirically driven policies. 

European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research (2024) 30:503–520 

By Rosie Erol , The College of Policing

Many cases of stalking are not reported to the police, due to fear of escalation, uncertainty about what the police will do and not being taken seriously. For victims that do report, the decision to call the police occurs when an escalation in stalking behavior means they feel they need additional support to cope. The majority of victims were dissatisfied with the police response at some point during their interaction. Victims with a more positive experience felt that officers understood the context and nature of the stalking behavior and the impact this had on their lives. Factors leading to positive engagement included having a named officer managing the case, feeling the police were proactive and being informed of progress. The research identified several ways in which the victim experience could be improved. Awareness raising for police officers around the complexities and dynamics of stalking would help in understanding the victim experience, particularly around cyberstalking. Having stalking specialists in forces could support investigations, along with improved partnership working with stalking advocates. Ensuring victims were provided with information about the investigation process and also practical advice about staying safe would provide a better experience for victims reporting to the police.  

Ryton-on-Dunsmore Coventry, UK:  College of Policing, September 2024  26p.

By: Roy Light, Clarie Nee, and Helen Ingham

Most car thieves started in their early to mid-teens, influenced by peers, boredom, and excitement[^1^][1]. Many had extensive criminal careers and came from socially disadvantaged backgrounds. Initial motivations included excitement, financial gain, and a passion for driving. Over time, financial incentives became more prominent. Effective prevention requires early intervention, better car security, and diversionary programs that offer similar excitement to car theft. Offenders often underestimated the likelihood of being caught and the severity of non-custodial penalties. Custodial sentences were seen as a potential deterrent, but not always effective.

ASU Center for Problem-Oriented Policing, HOME OFFICE RESEARCH STUDY NO. 130, 1993

By James Jaehoon Lee and Jeffrey Layne Blevins

 Informed by critical theory, this book employs Social Network Analysis (SNA) to examine the ever-increasing impact that social media has on politics and contemporary civic discourse. In just the past decade, social media platforms have been at the forefront of political discord that played out in the January 6th insurrection, the expulsion of a US President from major social media platforms, the attempted regulation of social media in various states, and the takeover of Twitter (now “X”) by one of the richest and (arguably) most financially influential persons in the world. This book examines these phenomena through a comprehensive and in-depth exploration of their meaning and implication for democratic society. Informed by SNA, James Jaehoon Lee and Jeffrey Layne Blevins examine several types of social and political commentary on one of the most influential social media networks and argue that the use of emotional appeals in these posts about social and political topics degrades the quality of civic discourse and encourages the abandonment of reasoning in democratic self-governance. A timely and vital text for upper-level students and scholars in a variety of disciplines from media and communication studies, journalism, and digital humanities to social network analysis, political science, and sociology. 

 New York; London: Routledge, 2023. 161p.

By Retman, Sonnet H.

"A combination madhouse, burlesque show and Coney Island" : the color question in George Schuyler's Black no more -- "Inanimate hideosities" : the burlesque of racial capitalism in Nathanael West's A cool million -- "The last American frontier" : mapping the folk in the Federal Writers' Project's Florida : a guide to the southernmost state -- "Ah gives myself de privilege to go" : navigating the field and the folk in Zora Neale Hurston's Mules and men -- "Am I laughing"? : burlesque incongruities of genre, gender, and audience in Preston Sturges's Sullivan's travels -- Afterpiece : the Coen brothers' Ol'-timey blues in O brother, where art thou?

Durham, NC : Duke University Press, 2011. 322p.

By Jason Beaman

This final research report describes a project that used various data sources to analyze the relationship between methamphetamine usage metrics, such as overdose deaths and related crimes, and violent crime such as rape and robbery, in order to inform law enforcement and other stakeholders of upstream prevention for crimes related to methamphetamine use. The project’s key objectives included developing a dashboard, analyzing methamphetamine-crime intersections, and assessing the influence of social determinants of health (SDOH) of methamphetamine use. Results demonstrated significant correlations between methamphetamine overdoses and violent crimes, especially economic-compulsive crimes. The report highlights distinct patterns and geographic variations among rural and American Indian communities. The report notes that results emphasize the complex interplay between methamphetamine use, violent crime, and socio-economic factors, and it advocates for targeted prevention strategies. It also offers the Oklahoma Methamphetamine Data Initiative (OKMDI) framework for addressing substance use and violence as a tool for policymakers and law enforcement.

Stillwater, OK: Oklahoma State University, 2024. 39p.

By Sintiki Tarfa Ugbe, et al.

This policy brief by the West African Epidemiology Network on Drug Use (WENDU) details regional drug use trends for 2023. Based on data from 11 countries, the brief reviews supply, consumption, treatment opportunities and counter-narcotics efforts. In a continuing trend, cannabis dominates the regional substance use data matrix, followed by medical opioids. However, alcohol use disorders are growing across multiple countries and, worryingly, more minors are getting caught in the toxic web of drug use. Recommendations • The increasing involvement of minors in drug use demands the urgent introduction of comprehensive substance abuse prevention programmes across all educational levels. • Given the rising prevalence of substance abuse among women and their limited access to treatment opportunities, women-focused rehabilitation centres are urgently needed. • There is a need for regionwide adoption of the Alternative to Incarceration programme introduced by ECOWAS. • ECOWAS and political leaders across West Africa need an evidence-based and context-appropriate stance on the region’s cannabis problem.  

Issue 32, WENDU policy brief 2 | September 2024 24p.

By Michael J. Zoorob,; Ju Nyeong Park,; Alex H. Kral,; et al

Importance: With the implementation of Measure 110 (M110) in 2021, Oregon became the first US state to decriminalize small amounts of any drug for personal use. To date, no analysis of the association of this law with overdose mortality has fully accounted for the introduction of fentanyl-a substance that is known to drive fatal overdose-to Oregon's unregulated drug market.

Objective: To evaluate whether the decriminalization of drug possession in Oregon was associated with changes in fatal drug overdose rates after accounting for the rapid spread of fentanyl in Oregon's unregulated drug market.

Design, setting, and participants: In this cohort study, the association between fatal overdose and enactment of M110 was analyzed using a matrix completion synthetic control method. The control group consisted of the 48 US states and Washington, DC, all of which did not decriminalize drugs. The rapid spread of fentanyl in unregulated drug markets was determined using the state-level percentage of all samples reported to the National Forensic Laboratory Information System that were identified as fentanyl or its analogues. Mortality data were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2022. Data analysis was performed from fall 2023 through spring 2024.

Exposures: Measure 110 took effect in Oregon on February 1, 2021.

Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome assessed was fatal drug overdose rates per half-year. A changepoint analysis also determined when each state experienced a rapid escalation of fentanyl in its unregulated drug market.

Results: In this analysis, rapid spread of fentanyl in Oregon's unregulated drug supply occurred in the first half of 2021, contemporaneous with enactment of M110. A positive crude association was found between drug decriminalization and fatal overdose rate per 100 000 per half year (estimate [SE], 1.83 [0.47]; P < .001). After adjusting for the spread of fentanyl as a confounder, the effect size changed signs (estimate [SE], -0.51 [0.61]; P = .41) and there was no longer an association between decriminalization and overdose mortality in Oregon. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with this result.

Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of fatal drug overdose and the spread of fentanyl through Oregon's unregulated drug market, no association between M110 and fatal overdose rates was observed. Future evaluations of the health effects of drug policies should account for changes in the composition of unregulated drug markets.  

JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(9):e2431612. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.31612

By Drug Policy Alliance

In 2020, Oregon voters overwhelmingly approved Ballot Measure 110. This made Oregon the first state in the U.S. to decriminalize possession of small amounts of all drugs, while greatly expanding addiction services and social supports. But in 2024, state leaders recriminalized drug possession after a disinformation campaign led by drug war defenders and backed by corporate interests. Statewide criminal penalties for drug possession returned on September 1, 2024. Promised deflection programs were not ready, meaning people will be arrested and prosecuted because of their addictions. As before, drug use will be used as an excuse to arrest Black and Brown Oregonians at higher rates (they are statistically more likely to face incarceration and harsher sentencing due to targeted policing and enforcement). Oregon’s public defender shortage continues. People who are arrested will likely have their cases dismissed for lack of counsel. In a return to the failed war on drugs, people will cycle through the criminal legal system without connection to services. The successes of Measure 110 should neither be downplayed nor contributed to H.B. 4002. Measure 110 provided over $300 million for addiction services, including a program where police connect people to care without arrest. Policymakers must focus on implementing a thorough public health approach to drugs and real solutions to other pressing issues, not on the false promises of criminalizing drug possession.

New York: Drug Policy Alliance, 2024. 5p.

By Russ Scott

Australia has one of the highest rates in the world of the use of the crystalline form of methamphetamine, a highly addictive stimulant that is often associated with a chronic, relapsing dependency. Methamphetamine use is associated with both acquisitive and violent offending, which cause substantial personal and societal costs. Whilst the short-term euphoria and stimulation provide a positive reinforcement to methamphetamine use, the aversive states of withdrawing from methamphetamine and the associated craving, which may last up to five weeks into abstinence, underlie the negative reinforcement to continued methamphetamine use. Although many methamphetamine-dependent users experience high levels of psychological distress, it is likely that less than half engage with treatment or support services, and current intervention and treatment programmes have high discontinuation rates. Stigma and discrimination, even from paramedics and health clinicians, are prominent barriers to methamphetamine-dependent users accessing treatment in Australia

Psychiatry, Psychology and Law; Vol. 31, No. 4, 671–704,, 2024

By: The National Association of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Following a series of natural disasters, including Hurricane Katrina, that revealed shortcomings in the nation's ability to effectively alert populations at risk, Congress passed the Warning, Alert, and Response Network (WARN) Act in 2006. Today, new technologies such as smart phones and social media platforms offer new ways to communicate with the public, and the information ecosystem is much broader, including additional official channels, such as government social media accounts, opt-in short message service (SMS)-based alerting systems, and reverse 911 systems; less official channels, such as main stream media outlets and weather applications on connected devices; and unofficial channels, such as first person reports via social media. Traditional media have also taken advantage of these new tools, including their own mobile applications to extend their reach of beyond broadcast radio, television, and cable. Furthermore, private companies have begun to take advantage of the large amounts of data about users they possess to detect events and provide alerts and warnings and other hazard-related information to their users.

More than 60 years of research on the public response to alerts and warnings has yielded many insights about how people respond to information that they are at risk and the circumstances under which they are most likely to take appropriate protective action. Some, but not all, of these results have been used to inform the design and operation of alert and warning systems, and new insights continue to emerge. Emergency Alert and Warning Systems reviews the results of past research, considers new possibilities for realizing more effective alert and warning systems, explores how a more effective national alert and warning system might be created and some of the gaps in our present knowledge, and sets forth a research agenda to advance the nation's alert and warning capabilities.

ISBN 978-0-309-46737-7 | DOI 10.17226/24935

By Shiying Zhang, Ao Huang

There have been numerous debates regarding the educational practice of grade retention and social promotion. This study analyzes the effect of an exogenous policy reform in China that abolishes grade retention during the compulsory education period. We exploit the staggered introduction of the reform across provinces and estimate a flexible difference-in-differences model that can capture the effect of exposure to the reform in different grades. The results indicate that abolishing grade retention significantly decreases the probability of junior high school completion, and most of these negative impacts are concentrated among students exposed to the reform in early grades. Moreover, rural children and boys are more likely to be negatively affected by the reform. Finally, we find that the reform increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior in early adulthood.

Unpublished paper, 2024.

By Fredrik Kärrholm, Peter Neyroud & John Smaaland

Research Question -  Which method for deriving a Crime Harm Index (Policing 10:171 183, 2016) for Sweden from criminal justice sources offers the best evidence for providing a sensitive indicator of differences in harm levels across offence categories? Data The number of days of imprisonment for each offence category associated with five different kinds of scales were extracted and compared: consensus by an expert panel of judges, the statutory maximum penalties, statutory minimum penalties, the average of maximum and minimum penalties and the average of actual sentences imposed in a recent time period for each crime type. Unlike the UK, for which the Cambridge Crime Harm Index draws on sentencing guidelines, Sweden has no such guidelines to offer. Methods - The data were compared for sensitivity defined as the difference in length of imprisonment days between high and low severity crimes, as well as other characteristics of the data sources. Findings - Given the available alternatives, the sentencing data average of actual sentences handed down by crime type provided the greatest reliability and sensitivity across the penalties for offences of high and low severity. Applying that method to both crime trends and crime mapping produces substantially different results from counting all crimes with equal weight and can be used by police and others to allocate resources with greater precision in relation to harm prevention. Conclusions - On both empirical and normative grounds, the average sentences in a recent time period for each crime category provides the most sensitive and democratic method for establishing an officially recognized Swedish Crime Harm Index.  

Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing 4(1): 15–33. 2021.  

By Jo‑Anne Kramer,  Arjan A. J. Blokland, ·Edward R. Kleemans, Melvin R. J. Soudijn

In order to launder large amounts of money, (drug) criminals can seek help from financial facilitators. According to the FATF, these facilitators are operating increasingly business like and even participate in professional money laundering networks. This study examines the extent to which financial facilitators in the Netherlands exhibit business-like charac teristics and the extent to which they organize themselves in money laundering networks. We further examine the relationship between business-like behavior and individual money launderers’ position in the social network. Using police intelligence data, we were able to analyze the contacts of 198 financial facilitators who were active in the Netherlands in the period 2016–2020, all having worked for drug criminals. Based on social network analysis, this research shows that financial facilitators in the Netherlands can be linked in extensive money laundering networks. Based on the facilitators’ area of expertise, roughly two main types of professional money laundering networks can be discerned. Some subnetworks operate in the real estate sector, while others primarily engage in underground banking. Furthermore, the application of regression models to predict business-like behavior using individual network measures shows that facilitators with more central positions in the net work and those who collaborate with financial facilitators from varying expertise groups tend to behave more business-like than other financial facilitators

Kramer JA, Blokland AAJ, Kleemans ER & Soudijn MRJ 2023. Money laundering as a service: Investigating business-like behavior in money laundering networks in the Netherlands. Trends in Organized Crime.

By Peter Gerbrands, Brigitte Unger, Michael Getzner & Joras Ferwerda 

Aim

There is a growing literature analyzing money laundering and the policies to fight it, but the overall effectiveness of anti-money laundering policies is still unclear. This paper investigates whether anti-money laundering policies affect the behavior of money launderers and their networks.

Method

With an algorithm to match clusters over time, we build a unique dataset of multi-mode, undirected, binary, dynamic networks of natural and legal persons. The data includes ownership and employment relations and associated financial ties and is enriched with criminal records and police-related activities. The networks of money launderers, other criminals, and non-criminal individuals are analyzed and compared with temporal social network analysis techniques and panel data regressions on centrality measures, transitivity and assortativity indicators, and levels of constraint.

Findings

We find that after the announcement of the fourth EU anti-money laundering directive in 2015, money laundering networks show a significant increase in the use of foreigners and corporate structures. At the individual level, money launderers become more dominant in criminal clusters (increased closeness centrality). This paper shows that (the announcement of) anti-money laundering policies can affect criminal networks and how such effects can be tested.

EPJ Data Science, 11(1), [15]