By Anthony Morgan and Hayley Boxall

In this study we use data from a large online survey of Australian women to examine whether the increased time spent at home, social isolation and financial stress resulting from COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a higher likelihood of physical and sexual violence among women in current cohabiting relationships with and without a history of violence. An increase in the amount of time spent at home with a partner did not in itself increase the likelihood of violence among either group. However, the probability of repeat or first-time violence was between 1.3 and 1.4 times higher for women who had less frequent contact with family and friends outside of the household during the pandemic. While financial stress prior to the pandemic was a strong predictor of violence for both groups, the probability of first-time violence was 1.8 times higher among women who experienced an increase in financial stress. We conclude that the pandemic was associated with an increased risk of violence against women in current cohabiting relationships, most likely from a combination of economic stress and social isolation.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 609. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 18p.

By Rasmus Munksgaard and James Martin

Cryptomarkets represent a growing component of the global illicit drugs trade. Australia is over-represented in the proportion of online vendors who use these platforms to reach drug consumers. Despite the growth in online drug trading, relatively little is known about people who use cryptomarkets to sell drugs. This study addresses the knowledge gap and provides qualitative insights into this new, and little understood, cohort of offenders. The study found that vendors perceive less risk of violence and police intervention when selling drugs online and that the potential for profit exceeds that available when selling drugs offline.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 608. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 12p.

By Marie Henshaw, Chelsea Arnold, Rajan Darjee, James RP Ogloff and Jonathan A Cloug

Recent research suggests that child sexual abuse material (CSAM) offenders have distinct characteristics and intervention needs when compared to contact sexual offenders. As such, many sexual offender treatment programs may not be suitable for CSAM offenders without a history of contact offences. This paper describes the development of the CEM-COPE (Coping with Child Exploitation Material Use) Program. We discuss CSAM offender characteristics, recidivism rates and treatment considerations, before outlining the rationale, specifications and underpinnings of the CEM-COPE Program. Challenges in this research area and considerations for future research are also addressed.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 607. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 14p.

By Caitlin Hughes, Shann Hulme and Alison Ritter

In illicit drug markets, the price and purity of drugs change frequently. While it is well known that purity-adjusted price affects drug use, impacts on other outcomes are less clear. This rapid review examines the relationship between price, purity and seven population level measures of drug-related harm and any differences across three drug types. With a few exceptions, it found an inverse relationship between purity-adjusted price and drug-related harm, with higher purity-adjusted price associated with less drug-related harm, and lower purity-adjusted price associated with increased harm. This shows the value of price and purity data for predicting drug market impacts and the importance of improving price and purity data collection and analyses, particularly in Australia.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 598. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology 2020. 26p.

By Rick Brown, Sarah Napier and Russell G Smith  

In recent years, there has been growing evidence of live streaming technologies being used to facilitate child sexual abuse (CSA). This study examined a sample of financial transactions made by a cohort of Australians who provided funds to known facilitators of CSA live streaming in the Philippines. The results showed that these individuals were likely to be aged in their 50s or 60s and the majority (55%) had no criminal record. Ten percent had a sexual offence recorded in their criminal history. Most CSA live streaming transactions involved a small proportion of individuals. Just three percent accounted for half of all transactions. In contrast, 25 percent of individuals made just three percent of transactions. As individuals purchased more CSA live streaming transactions, the median amounts they paid increased and the transactions became more frequent. These two variables were significantly correlated. This may reflect an escalation in the frequency and severity of offending.  

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 589. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 16p.

By Cassandra Cross, Thomas Holt, Anastasia Powell and Michael Wilson 

Advancements in information technology are sources of both opportunity and vulnerability for citizens. Previous research indicates that there are significant challenges for police in investigating cybercrime, that community expectations about police responses are based largely on media representations, and that victims experience high levels of frustration and stigmatisation. This paper examines the views of the Australian community and law enforcement officers about the policing of cybercrime. Results suggest that police personnel are more likely to view cybercrime as serious, and community members are more likely to ascribe blame to victims. Results also indicate a discrepancy between police and community members in their views of the efficacy of police responses. These discrepancies contribute to public dissatisfaction. Therefore, the paper covers some general strategies for short- and long-term cybercrime prevention.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 635. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2021. 20p.

By Megan Wyre, David Lacey and Kathy Allan

Identity theft continues to grow in prevalence and complexity. Despite this growth, little is known about the identity theft response system and how it assists victims to recover. This study examines the response system by analysing 211 identity theft cases reported to IDCARE, a national identity and cybercrime victim support service. The study applies a sociotechnical systems methodology to establish the social, task and information processes of the Australian identity theft response system. The study also examines identity theft victims’ response activities and needs over a 12-month period. The identity theft response system is almost entirely dependent on the victim to respond to and limit the harm caused by identity theft. Overall, the response system is disjointed and lacking in coordination. 

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 592.  Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2020. 18p.

By Jesús Gorrín,  José Morales-Arilla , Bernardo Ricca

This paper documents how violence resulting from the Mexican Drug War hindered local export growth. Focusing on exports allows us to abstract from demand factors and measure effects on the local capacity to supply foreign markets. We compare exports of the same product to the same country, but facing differential exposure to violence after a close electoral outcome. Firms exogenously exposed to the Drug War experienced lower export growth. Violence eroded the local capacity to attract capital investment, disproportionately hampering large exporters and capital-intensive activities

2021. 60p.

By Fahra Rajabali, Kate Turcotte, Alex Zheng, Roy Purssell, Jane A. Buxton, Ian Pike

Poisoning, from substances such as illicit drugs, prescribed and over-the-counter medications, alcohol, pesticides, gases and household cleaners, is the leading cause of injury-related death and the second leading cause for injury-related hospital admission in British Columbia. We examined the health and economic costs of poisoning in BC for 2016, using a societal perspective, to support public health policies aimed at minimizing losses to society. Methods: Costs by intent, sex and age group were calculated in Canadian dollars using a classification and costing framework based on existing provincial injury data combined with data from the published literature. Direct cost components included fatal poisonings, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, ambulance attendance without transfer to hospital and calls to the British Columbia Drug and Poison Information Centre (BC DPIC) not resulting in ambulance attendance, emergency care or transfer to hospital. Indirect costs, measured as loss of earnings and informal caregiving costs, were also calculated. Results: We estimate that poisonings in BC totalled $812.5 million in 2016 with $108.9 million in direct health care costs and $703.6 million in indirect costs. Unintentional poisoning injuries accounted for 84% of total costs, 46% of direct costs and 89% of indirect costs. Males accounted for higher proportions of direct costs for all patient dispositions except hospital admissions. Patients aged 25–64 years accounted for higher proportions of direct costs except for calls to BC DPIC, where proportions were highest for children younger than 15 years. Interpretation: Hospital care expenditures represented the largest direct cost of poisoning, and lost productivity following death represented the largest indirect cost. Quantifying and understanding the financial burden of poisoning has implications not only for government and health care, but also for society, employers, patients and families.

CMAJ Open. 2023 Feb 14;11(1):E160-E168.

By Hannah E. Meyers

In November 2014, California voters approved a criminal justice reform measure, Proposition 47 (“Prop 47”), with almost 60% support. Ten years later, California voters are now considering rolling back some of its soft-on-crime policies. Prop 47 identified six “petty” crimes—grand theft, larceny, personal drug use, forgery, and two types of check fraud—and reclassified them. It downgraded these crimes, including thefts with property values under $950 and illegal drug possession for personal use, from felonies to misdemeanors. This paper presents a data-based argument on how Prop 47 shifted dynamics in both offender behavior and prosecutorial decision-making that damaged public safety and public health. Representative data from Riverside, one of California’s largest counties, suggest that Prop 47 increased re-offending, including serious felony re-offending, detention times, failures to appear in court, warrants issued on offenders, case dismissals in conjunction with plea deals, and the persistence levels of drug and theft offenders. Additional data collected from both Riverside and San Bernardino law-enforcement agencies show a significant drop in sentencing and in arrests, due partly to the diminished incentive for businesses to promptly report thefts. These shifts have also resulted in fewer defendants participating in in-custody drug treatment programs or other mandatory, supervised services because the incentives for doing so (avoiding prosecution and significant sentences) have evaporated. And, as California business owners can attest, reducing the cost of repeatedly committing theft removes the incentive for offenders to change their behavior. This has fueled increases in organized retail theft and fencing rings. Prop 47 also strained the resources of counties, by increasing the number of defendants sentenced to serve in overcrowded jails rather than prison.

New York: Manhattan Institute, 2024. 20p.

By: Helen Toner, John Bansemer, Kyle Crichton, Matthew Burtell, Thomas Woodside, Anat Lior, Andrew Lohn, Ashwin Acharya, Beba Cibralic, Chris Painter, Cullen O’Keefe, Iason Gabriel, Kathleen Fisher, Ketan Ramakrishnan, Krystal Jackson, Noam Kolt, Rebecca Crootof, and Samrat Chatterjee

The concept of artificial intelligence systems that actively pursue goals—known as AI “agents”—is not new. But over the last year or two, progress in large language models (LLMs) has sparked a wave of excitement among AI developers about the possibility of creating sophisticated, general-purpose AI agents in the near future. Startups and major technology companies have announced their intent to build and sell AI agents that can act as personal assistants, virtual employees, software engineers, and more. While current systems remain somewhat rudimentary, they are improving quickly. Widespread deployment of highly capable AI agents could have transformative effects on society and the economy. This workshop report describes findings from a recent CSET-led workshop on the policy implications of increasingly “agentic” AI systems.

In the absence of a consensus definition of an “agent,” we describe four characteristics of increasingly agentic AI systems: they pursue more complex goals in more complex environments, exhibiting independent planning and adaptation to directly take actions in virtual or real-world environments. These characteristics help to establish how, for example, a cyber-offense agent that could autonomously carry out a cyber intrusion would be more agentic than a chatbot advising a human hacker. A “CEO-AI” that could run a company without human intervention would likewise be more agentic than an AI acting as a personal assistant.

At present, general-purpose LLM-based agents are the subject of significant interest among AI developers and investors. These agents consist of an advanced LLM (or multimodal model) that uses “scaffolding” software to interface with external environments and tools such as a browser or code interpreter. Proof-of-concept products that can, for example, write code, order food deliveries, and help manage customer relationships are already on the market, and many relevant players believe that the coming years will see rapid progress.

In addition to the many potential benefits that AI agents will likely bring, they may also exacerbate a range of existing AI-related issues and even create new challenges. The ability of agents to pursue complex goals without human intervention could lead to more serious accidents; facilitate misuse by scammers, cybercriminals, and others; and create new challenges in allocating responsibility when harms materialize. Existing data governance and privacy issues may be heightened by developers’ interest in using data to create agents that can be tailored to a specific user or context. If highly capable agents reach widespread use, users may become vulnerable to skill fade and dependency, agents may collude with one another in undesirable ways, and significant labor impacts could materialize as an increasing range of currently human-performed tasks become automated.

To manage these challenges, our workshop participants discussed three categories of interventions:

• Measurement and evaluation: At present, our ability to assess the capabilities and real-world impacts of AI agents is very limited. Developing better methodologies to track improvements in the capabilities of AI agents themselves, and to collect ecological data about their impacts on the world, would make it more feasible to anticipate and adapt to future progress.

• Technical guardrails: Governance objectives such as visibility, control, trustworthiness, as well as security and privacy can be supported by the thoughtful design of AI agents and the technical ecosystems around them. However, there may be trade-offs between different objectives. For example, many mechanisms that would promote visibility into and control over the operations of AI agents may be in tension with design choices that would prioritize privacy and security.

• Legal guardrails: Many existing areas of law—including agency law, corporate law, contract law, criminal law, tort law, property law, and insurance law—will play a role in how the impacts of AI agents are managed. Areas where contention may arise when attempting to apply existing legal doctrines include questions about the “state of mind” of AI agents, the legal personhood of AI agents, how industry standards could be used to evaluate negligence, and how existing principal-agent frameworks should apply in situations involving AI agents.

While it is far from clear how AI agents will develop, the level of interest and investment in this technology from AI developers means that policymakers should understand the potential implications and intervention points. For now, valuable steps could include improving measurement and evaluation of AI agents’ capabilities and impacts, deeper consideration of how technical guardrails can support multiple governance objectives, and analysis of how existing legal doctrines may need to be adjusted or updated to handle more sophisticated AI agents.

Center for Security and Emerging Technology, October 2024

By: Lauren Stienstra, Diane P. Horn, Erica A. Lee, Bruce R. Lindsay, William L. Painter, Elizabeth M. Webster

On October 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Florida’s Tampa Bay area bringing heavy rain, storm surge, and floods to many counties on the coast and in the interior of the state. Some areas in the state are still actively recovering from Hurricane Helene.

President Biden had previously issued an emergency declaration for this storm on October 7, under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (the Stafford Act, P.L. 93-288, as amended; 42 U.S.C. §§5121 et seq.), authorizing Public Assistance (PA) for emergency protective measures put into action beginning October 5, 2024. On October 8, 2024, President Biden issued another emergency declaration authorizing federal assistance to Seminole Tribe of Florida.

As of October 11, President Biden declared a major disaster for Hurricane Milton in Florida, authorizing PA, Individual Assistance, and Hazard Mitigation Assistance. President Biden also increased the federal share of eligible response costs; the federal government will cover 100% of eligible costs of PA provided for emergency protective measures and debris removal for a period of 90 days.

The situation remains dynamic; additional declarations, or additional forms of assistance are expected given Milton’s impact.

Information about state and county disaster assistance is published in FEMA’s declaration database. FEMA’s Hurricane Milton web page provides information on how to apply for disaster assistance. FEMA has also created another site to dispel rumors and misinformation related to aid to survivors, evacuation, and relief funding.

CRS Insight, IN12438; Oct. 13, 2024

By: Yasmin Afina and Sarah Grand-Clément

Data plays a critical role in the training, testing and use of artificial intelligence (AI), including in the military domain. Research and development for AI-enabled military solutions is proceeding at breakneck speed, and the important role data plays in shaping these technologies has implications and, at times, raises concerns. These issues are increasingly subject to scrutiny and range from difficulty in finding or creating training and testing data relevant to the military domain, to (harmful) biases in training data sets, as well as their susceptibility to cyberattacks and interference (for example, data poisoning). Yet pathways and governance solutions to address these issues remain scarce and very much underexplored.

This paper aims to fill this gap by first providing a comprehensive overview on data issues surrounding the development, deployment and use of AI. It then explores data governance practices from civilian applications to identify lessons for military applications, as well as highlight any limitations to such an approach. The paper concludes with an overview of possible policy and governance approaches to data practices surrounding military AI to foster the responsible development, testing, deployment and use of AI in the military domain.

CIGI Papers No. 308 — October 2024

By: US Election Assistance Commission

The security of voting systems is essential to a trustworthy election. Every state and local jurisdiction utilizes common-sense procedures and tools to safeguard the voting process. Common best practices include using locks, tamper-evident seals, security cameras, system testing before and after elections, audits, and physical and cybersecurity access controls. This guide outlines some of the many best practices local election officials follow to secure voting systems through an election cycle. It's important to note this is a broad list of common security measures and procedures to protect the integrity of an election. The types of security measures may vary based on the voting systems in use in state and local jurisdictions.

United States. Election Assistance Commission, Oct 2024

By The International Crisis Group

What’s new? Colombia’s government has made environmental protection a priority. But armed groups control large parts of the endangered Amazon rainforest, making that goal hard to achieve. One group in particular, the Central Armed Command, or EMC, has shown it has the power to slow or accelerate deforestation at will. Why does it matter? Armed groups’ tightening grip on the Colombian Amazon has further jeopardised the health of a forest that plays a crucial role in the planet’s climate. People living under these groups’ yoke have been left vulnerable to the whims of criminals bent on expanding their illicit businesses. What should be done? Colombia’s government should pursue negotiations with armed groups and plot ways to curb deforestation. But it should also assert its authority in the Amazon through development programs fostering livelihoods that do not harm the environment, efforts to combat large-scale environmental offenders and reinforced coordination of security, peace and environment policies.

Bogotá/New York/Brussels, International Crisis Group,   2024. 32p.

By Ania Moroz and Tamar Dinisman

“Looking back now, I wouldn’t have gone to the police, because it is one of the hardest things you can ever do in your whole life. I can’t even sum up in words what it does to you mentally and physically. You can be the world’s strongest person ever in the world, but going to court can break you. It’s awful.” Victim-survivor It is estimated that 1 in 4 women and 1 in 18 men have been subjected to some form of sexual violence since the age of 16 and that 1 in 6 children have been sexually abused.1 The majority of victim-survivors will not report the offence to the police. Of those who do report it, a very low proportion will receive a charge and have their case go to court. The number of victim-survivors of sexual violence who give evidence in trial is not openly available. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data shows that in the year ending June 2023, 11,506 defendants were proceeded against for sexual offences2 and, in 2022–23, 3,004 defendants were charged with rape-related offences.3 This report focuses on the experience of sexual violence victim-survivors where the defendant has been charged and their case has gone through the court process. It focuses on the three main stages of this experience – before, during and after giving evidence – and highlights the main challenges victim-survivors face at each stage. This report also makes recommendations for changes in policy and practice to address these challenges. To meet the aims of the research, a multimethod approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods, was used. These include: 12 semi-structured interviews with victim survivors; focus groups and interviews with Victim Support sexual violence practitioners; and Victim Support sexual violence cases analysis.

Cardiff: Victim Support, 2024. 63p.  

By Oisin Stronach, Paul Dietze, Michael Livingston, Amanda Roxburgh

Background

Over the past two decades methamphetamine-related harms have increased in Australia. Previous analysis of methamphetamine-related deaths has covered limited timeframes, and largely focused on drug-toxicity deaths. This paper examines long-term trends in methamphetamine-related deaths over 20 years, including deaths due to a range of specific causes.

Methods

Descriptive analyses were conducted on Australian methamphetamine-related deaths (2001–2023) by cause, extracted from the National Coronial Information System, an online database containing deaths reported to coroners in Australia and New Zealand. Joinpoint trend analyses were used to assess changes over time between 2001 and 2020 (with data from 2021 to 2023 likely incomplete and thus excluded).

Results

Unintentional drug toxicity was the cause of 49.8 % of methamphetamine-related deaths, intentional self-harm (including toxicity) 23.3 %, unintentional injury 15.1 %, natural causes 9.6 %, and assaults 2.3 %. Between 2001 and 2020, joinpoint analysis showed three trend change points among all-cause methamphetamine-related mortality rates, resulting in four distinct periods: two periods where they increased (2001–2006 – annual percentage change (APC) = 15.4 %; 2009–2016 – APC 25.5 %), and two where they decreased (2006–2009 – APC = –11.8 %; 2017–2020 – APC = –2.9 %). Similar patterns were evident among rates of intentional self-harm and unintentional injury. Deaths caused by unintentional drug toxicity saw two trend change points (2011, 2016), and rates increased across all three periods. Natural cause deaths had three trend change points (2007, 2010, 2015), and rates continued to rise after 2015, largely driven by increases in circulatory diseases.

Conclusion

Cause-specific models highlighted diverse trends. Recent trends show unintentional drug toxicity deaths have slightly increased, intentional self-harm stabilised, and unintentional injury and assault deaths have declined. Deaths from natural causes involving methamphetamine continued to increase, highlighting a public health concern and a potential need for early circulatory disease screening among people who use methamphetamine.

International Journal of Drug Policy Volume 131, September 2024, 104548  

By Ariel G. Ruiz Soto

Immigrants in the United States commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S.-born population, notwithstanding the assertion by critics that immigration is linked to higher rates of criminal activity. This reality of reduced criminality, which holds across immigrant groups including unauthorized immigrants, has been demonstrated through research as well as findings for the one state in the United States—Texas—that tracks criminal arrests and convictions by immigration status. A growing volume of research demonstrates that not only do immigrants commit fewer crimes, but they also do not raise crime rates in the U.S. communities where they settle. In fact, some studies indicate that immigration can lower criminal activity, especially violent crime, in places with inclusive policies and social environments where immigrant populations are well established. A Look at the Overall Immigrant Population National studies have examined incarceration rates and prosecutions of immigrants in the country, overwhelmingly finding that immigrants of all legal statuses commit crimes at lower rates than those who were born in the United States. Immigrants Are Prosecuted and Imprisoned at Lower Rates than the U.S. Born Immigrants in the United States have had lower incarceration rates than the native-born population since at least 1870 (when such data were first recorded). In 2020, immigrants were 60 percent less likely to be incarcerated than the U.S. born, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. And though a 2021 Justice Department study points out prosecutions of immigrants increased between 1990 and 2018, nearly 90 percent were for violations of immigration-related laws. Notably, U.S. born citizens were ten times more likely than immigrants to be incarcerated for committing weapons- related offenses, five times more likely for violent offenses, more than twice as likely for property crimes, and nearly twice as likely for drug offenses.  At the state level, multiple studies have found there is no clear relationship between violent crime and immigration. And research at the city level suggests that increases in immigration can be associated with declining homicide rates, with the largest effect on municipalities with long histories of immigration, as well as reductions in property crimes and robbery. This makes immigrants  less likely to be either offenders or victims of crime at the local level compared to the U.S.-born population

Washington, DC: Immigration Policy Institute, 2024. 5p.   

By Christopher Dowling, Siobhan Lawler, Laura Doherty, Heather Wolbers

This review was commissioned to support implementation of the Standing Council of Attorneys-General Work Plan to Strengthen Criminal Justice Responses to Sexual Assault 2022–2027, which emphasises the importance of strengthening legal frameworks where required to ensure victims and survivors have improved justice outcomes and protections. The review includes an analysis of Commonwealth, state and territory legislation, a review of national and international research, reviews and inquiries, and consultations with victims and survivors and expert stakeholders. It explores any gaps and inconsistencies in the legislative landscape and their implications for victims and survivors who have contact with the criminal justice system. It also investigates the barriers and challenges to achieving greater consistency in legislation. The review broadly addresses these research questions: 1. What is the nature and scope of sexual assault and child sexual abuse legislation in Australia? 2. What differences and similarities (if any) are there between sexual assault and child sexual abuse legislative frameworks in Australia? 3. What impact (if any) do legislative inconsistencies have on: a. the investigation and prosecution of sexual assault and child sexual abuse matters in the criminal justice system; and b. the ability of victims and survivors to receive the support they require? 4. What are the barriers/challenges to achieving consistency in child sexual abuse and sexual assault legislation in Australia? 5. What are the gaps in current legislation for responding to new and emerging trends in sexual violence? 6. What does ‘best practice’ in relation to sexual assault and child sexual abuse legislation look like?  

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology 2024. 375p.

By Prithwish Ganguli      

The rise of Cybercrime-as-a-Service (CaaS) represents a new frontier in the evolution of cybercrime, where sophisticated tools and malicious services are made readily available to a broad range of users through online marketplaces, often on the dark web. CaaS has democratized cybercrime, enabling even low-skilled attackers to launch powerful cyberattacks such as Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS), phishing campaigns, and ransomware attacks with ease. This paper explores the operational structure of CaaS, including the use of cryptocurrencies for transactions and the global reach of these illicit platforms. The implications of this shift extend beyond economic losses, threatening national security, corporate stability, and personal privacy. While governments and law enforcement agencies are struggling to keep pace with the rapid evolution of these services, the paper examines legal and regulatory challenges in combating CaaS, as well as the role of international cooperation. Furthermore, it discusses technological countermeasures, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, as potential solutions to mitigate the threat. Ethical considerations surrounding the surveillance and control of online spaces are also addressed. The paper concludes by highlighting future trends in CaaS and stressing the need for a balanced approach between innovation and security to effectively counter this growing threat.

International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR), 2024.