By David Hyman | Mohammad H. Rahmati

Crime doesn’t pay. Or does it? We study the role of expectations regarding sanctions and the likelihood of detection on whether people obey the law. We examine how expectations influence whether people obey the law and conduct simulations of various enforcement counter-factuals. We find the average assessment of the likelihood of detection is quite accurate, but those who (mistakenly) believe the probability is lower than it is are much more likely to break the law. Further, expectations with regard to the likely consequences of getting caught are also heterogeneous. In our simulations, perceived fines have little impact on willingness to break the law, but a higher perceived likelihood of apprehension has an appreciable impact. Because marginal respondents are pivotal in the rate of law-breaking, debiasing expectations among the whole population has little impact.

Unpublished paper, 2024.

By Michelle D. Bonner

The book discusses the rise of punitive populism in Latin America and the role of the media in shaping public opinion. It explores the interpretation of crime statistics, the media’s influence on emotions and public opinion, and the comparison of media systems inArgentina and Chile. The document also examines the preference of journalists for tough-on-crime sources and the rise of punitive voices from within the state and civil society. The conclusion highlights the homogenization of public opinion in neoliberal media systems. [Introduction, 1. Interpreting statistics on crime, insecurity, and police violence, 2. The mass media’s role in emotions and public opinion,3. Comparing media systems: Argentina and Chile, 4. Journalists’preference for tough-on-crime sources, 5. The rise of punitive voices from within the state, 6. The rise ofpunitive voices from civil society, conclusion

University of Pittsburgh Press, 2019 276 pages