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Posts tagged risk assessment tools
Uncertainty, Risk and the Use of Algorithms in Policy Decisions: A Case Study on Criminal Justice in the USA

By Kathrin Hartmann & Georg Wenzelburger

Algorithms are increasingly used in different domains of public policy. They help humans to profile unemployed, support administrations to detect tax fraud and give recidivism risk scores that judges or criminal justice managers take into account when they make bail decisions. In recent years, critics have increasingly pointed to ethical challenges of these tools and emphasized problems of discrimination, opaqueness or accountability, and computer scientists have proposed technical solutions to these issues. In contrast to these important debates, the literature on how these tools are implemented in the actual everyday decision-making process has remained cursory. This is problematic because the consequences of ADM systems are at least as dependent on the implementation in an actual decision-making context as on their technical features. In this study, we show how the introduction of risk assessment tools in the criminal justice sector on the local level in the USA has deeply transformed the decision-making process. We argue that this is mainly due to the fact that the evidence generated by the algorithm introduces a notion of statistical prediction to a situation which was dominated by fundamental uncertainty about the outcome before. While this expectation is supported by the case study evidence, the possibility to shift blame to the algorithm does seem much less important to the criminal justice actors.

Policy Sci 54, 269–287 (2021)

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Pretrial Risk Assessments in North Carolina

By The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Government, Criminal Justice Innovation Lab

In North Carolina, thirty-seven of the state’s 100 counties offer some kind of pretrial supervision and support services. The National Association of Pretrial Services Agencies identifies two primary roles of pretrial services agencies. First, to assist judicial officers in making informed release decisions that promote court appearance and public safety. And second, to offer supervision and support options for individuals who require oversight while on pretrial release. These options can include services such as court date reminders, check-ins with staff, electronic monitoring, and providing referrals to community service providers. Numerous North Carolina counties use pretrial risk assessments to assist judicial officers in making informed release decisions. As used here, the term pretrial risk assessment refers to tools that are designed to predict the likelihood that someone will appear in court and remain arrest-free while on pretrial release. This briefing paper provides information about the use of pretrial risk assessments in North Carolina, including the types of assessments being used and how they are implemented. We also share lessons learned from stakeholders about implementation. This information was gathered as part of a larger partnership between the UNC School of Government Criminal Justice Innovation Lab (the Lab) and the North Carolina Pretrial Services Association (NCPSA) to assess the feasibility of research on the impact of pretrial services.

Durham, NC: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Government, Criminal Justice Innovation Lab: December 2024, 15p.

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What Happens When Judges Follow the Recommendations of Pretrial Detention Risk Assessment Instruments More Often?

By: SHAMENA ANWAR, JOHN ENGBERG, ISAAC M. OPPER, LEAH DION

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) methods to aid with decisionmaking in the criminal justice system has widely expanded in recent years with the increased use of risk assessments. Nowhere has this shift been more dramatic than in the widespread adoption of AI-enabled risk assessment tools to aid in pretrial detention decisions.

Despite the promise of pretrial risk assessment tools, the ways in which these tools have been implemented has limited potential progress. The vast majority of jurisdictions that have implemented these tools have essentially provided these risk assessment recommendations to judges in an advisory manner and generally cannot require judges to follow the recommendations when making their pretrial release decisions. Studies indicate that judges frequently ignore the recommendations of the risk assessment instrument; as a result, the adoption of these risk assessment tools has not had much impact on reducing the use of monetary bail and pretrial detention.

In this report, the authors investigate the factors that are predictive of whether judges follow risk assessment recommendations and identify the impacts to pretrial detention, public safety, and racial disparities when judges follow the recommendations more often.

RAND Research - Published Sep. 5, 2024

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