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No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election

By Andrew C. Eggers , Haritz Garro, and Justin Grimmer

After the 2020 US presidential election Donald Trump refused to concede, alleging widespread and unparalleled voter fraud. Trump’s supporters deployed several statistical arguments in an attempt to cast doubt on the result. Reviewing the most promi nent of these statistical claims, we conclude that none of them is even remotely convincing. The common logic behind these claims is that, if the election were fairly conducted, some feature of the observed 2020 election result would be unlikely or impossible. In each case, we find that the purportedly anomalous fact is either not a fact or not anomalous.   

  PNAS 2021 Vol. 118 No. 45 e2103619118  

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The Effects of Unsubstantiated Claims of Voter Fraud on Confidence in Elections

ByNicolas Berlinski, Margaret Doyle, Andrew M. Guess, Gabrielle Levy, Benjamin Lyons, Jacob M. Montgomery, Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler

   Abstract Political elites sometimes seek to delegitimize election results using unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Most recently, Donald Trump sought to overturn his loss in the 2020 US presidential election by falsely alleging widespread fraud. Our study provides new evidence demonstrating the corrosive effect of fraud claims like these on trust in the election system. Using a nationwide survey experiment conducted after the 2018 midterm elections– a time when many prominent Republicans also made unsubstantiated fraud claims– we show that exposure to claims of voter fraud reduces confidence in electoral integrity, though not support for democracy itself. The effects are concentrated among Republicans and Trump approvers. Worryingly, corrective messages from mainstream sources do not measurably reduce the damage these accusations inflict. These results suggest that unsubstantiated voter-fraud claims undermine confidence in elections, particularly when the claims are politically congenial, and that their effects cannot easily be mitigated by fact-checking.  

Journal of Experimental Political Science (2023), 10,34–49 

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The Effect of Voter and Election Fraud Misperceptions on U.S. Election Legitimacy

By John Carey, Brendan Nyhan, Brian Fogarty,  Jason Reifler

This study reports several experiments testing the e ects of corrective messages debunking false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 and 2022 U.S. elections as well as a complementary experiment after the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. We find evidence that prebunking false voter fraud claims with substantive information about election security can reduce misperceptions more effectively than corrections from credible sources. Other results indicate that corrections of specific voter fraud claims fail to generate broader changes in perceptions of election integrity and that party (but not putative candidate race) is the major factor in perceptions of voter fraud at the Congressional race level. 

Cambridge, MA: MIT Election Lab, 2024.

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The Economics Of The Indian Ocean Slave Trade In The Nineteenth Century

Edited By William Gervase Clarence-Smith

Over a million slaves were exported from Indian Ocean and Red Sea ports in Eastern Africa during the 19th century, with millions more moved within the continent[. The slave trade expanded significantly in the 19th century, driven by demand for labor in the western Indian Ocean and improved maritime security. Slaves were used in various roles, including laborers, concubines, eunuchs, and administrators, with significant numbers employed in agriculture, urban economies, and domestic roles.: The nature and scale of slavery varied across regions, with some areas like Zanzibar and Pemba having plantation systems similar to the New World, while others had more subsistence-based servitude.

FRANK CASS AND COMPANY LIMITED. Gainsborough House, Gainsborough Road, London. 1989. 228p.

THIRTY YEARS OF LYNCHING IN THE UNITED STATES 1889-1918

National Association for the Advancement of Colored People

Between 1889 and 1918, 3,224 people were lynched in the U.S., with 78.2% being African Americans. The South had the highest number of lynchings, with Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas leading.While lynchings decreased over the 30-year period, the South saw a slower decline compared to the North and West. Despite appeals from leaders like President Wilson, lynchings continued, and mob members were rarely convicted.

National Association for the Advancement of Colored People National Ofce 70 Fifth Avenue, New York. APRIL, 1919. 102p.

Of One Blood: A Short Study of the Race Problem

By Robert E. Speer

This book emphasizes that all races are part of one human family, created by God, and that racial distinctions are not biological but social constructs. It discusses the erroneous belief in racial superiority and the harm it causes, and argues that races can change and progress through education and environment, not just heredity. The ultimate solution to racial problems is presented as following the teachings of Jesus Christ, promoting love, peace, and unity among all races.

By Tiie Council of Women For Home Missions And Missionary Education Movement Of The United States And Canada. 1924. Read-Me.Org Classic Reprint 2024. .263p.

The Life and Struggles of Negro Toilers

BY GEORGE PADMORE

The document details the severe exploitation and oppression of Negro workers across various regions, including British, French, Belgian, Portuguese, Spanish, and Italian Africa. It discusses the conditions of black slaves in the United States, the West Indies, and Latin America, highlighting the brutal realities of slavery and its lasting impacts. The book describes the awakening and revolutionary movements among Negro workers in different regions, emphasizing their struggles for freedom and better living conditions, and outlines the role of imperialist powers in exploiting Negro workers and the economic and social challenges faced by these communities under imperialist rule.

R.I.L.U. Magazine for the International Union Committee of Negro Workers London, 1931. 125p.

Immigration Raids in Jackson, Mississippi, Five Years Later: An Evidence-Based Analysis to Dissuade Mass Deportation Policy and Promote a New Immigration Pathway

Christopher Ross,

FROM THE DOCUMENT: Immigration is one of, if not the, top voting priority for 2024 American voters [1]. Both political parties are poised to increase asylum restrictions but to disparate degrees. One policy under serious consideration is mass deportation [2]. It is not a novel American immigration policy concept [3]. But introspection from previous attempts should chill the notion of mass deportation being a viable solution worthy of serious consideration. The costs would be exorbitant. It would leave large swaths of American communities decimated. The local and national economies would take serious hits. Families and loved ones would be separated. Already backlogged immigration courts would be further overwhelmed as a matter of due process. Immigration must be addressed, and the rule of law is to be respected. But solutions must equally be practical. An August 2019 immigration raid in Jackson, Mississippi where 680 immigrants were arrested while working at nearby chicken processing plants provides a window to review how mass immigration enforcement, detention, and deportation affects an American community in the 21st century. This paper provides an analysis of the immigration raid and its effects on the local community, economy, and social services. It will also provide a scaled analysis of major metropolitan areas to show the deleterious effects of mass deportation and dissuade the consideration of mass deportation as viable policy. Finally, it will propose an alternative policy that may prove to be in the best interests of all parties involved.

Center for Migration Studies. .August 6, 2024. 63p.

The role of race, gender, and poverty on length of pretrial jail stays: A multi-site analysis

By Heather M. OuelletteBeth M. HuebnerAndrea GiuffreLee Ann SlocumBrian P. Schaefer

Research Summary

The average length of jail stays is increasing despite national efforts to reduce these populations. The current study examines variations in lengths of stay, differentiating between short and long pretrial stays. Using data from two large jails in metropolitan jurisdictions, we take an intersectional perspective and model potential differences among race, gender, and residing in a high-poverty area. In both locations, we find that Black men are the most likely to have long lengths of stay, but that length of stay varies depending on the intersection of gender, race, and neighborhood poverty.

Policy Implications:

The human costs of pretrial detention are paid unequally by different groups of people. Given the downstream costs of pretrial detention, this work suggests that focusing policy efforts on the barriers to release among people of color, particularly Black men, would be fruitful. There is evidence that bail reform can reduce some barriers to release without increases in crime. Further, attending to obstacles to case processing could lead to pretrial system reform. This work also highlights another area of the criminal legal system where Black males, compared to their White counterparts, are disparately affected and denotes the continuing need for intersectional perspectives on reform.

Criminology & Public Policy Early View, July 2024.

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Why Genocide? The Armenian and Jewish Experiences in Perspective

By Florence Mazian

Purpose of Study: The study aims to understand why genocide is chosen as a solution to problems, using a theoretical framework based on collective behavior.

Historical Context: It examines the Armenian Genocide and the Jewish Holocaust, detailing the social, political, and economic conditions that led to these events.

Theoretical Framework: The study develops a theory of genocide with six determinants, including the creation of "outsiders," internal strife, and powerful leadership with territorial ambitions.

Genocide Dynamics: It highlights how various factors interact dynamically to make genocide a "practical" solution, emphasizing the importance of understanding these dynamics to prevent future genocides.

Iowa State University Press, 1990, 291 pages

Violence and Activism at the Border : Gender, Feat, and Everyday Life in Ciudad Juárez

By Kathleen Staudt

Focus on Violence and Activism: The book examines violence against women in Ciudad Juarez, highlighting the gruesome murders and the activism that arose in response.

Gender and Fear: It explores the impact of gender and fear on everyday life in the border city, emphasizing the role of cultural and institutional factors.

Research and Activism: The author combines research with activism, detailing workshops and community efforts to address and prevent violence.

Government and Institutional Responses: The book critiques theresponses of government and institutions to violence against women, comparing the situations in the U.S. and Mexico.

University of Texas Press, 2008, 184 pages

Strategies of Slaves & Women : Life-Stories from East/Central Africa

By Marcia Wright

This book explores life stories from East/Central Africa, focusing on the experiences of ex-slaves and women, their strategies during times of peril, and their consciousness and changing circumstances before World War I. It is divided into two parts, with the first part titled "Women in Peril" featuring narratives of individual women, and the second part "History at the Turn"providing essays that contextualize the narratives within broader historical settings. The work reflects interdisciplinary research, drawing from feminism, African social history, and studies on slavery, aiming to uncover the history of women and slaves in Africa's internal and external history. It also discusses the challenges of interpreting personal narratives within historical contexts. Finally, the book highlights the need for further research and interdisciplinary exchange to deepen the understanding of the subject matter.

Lilian Barber Press, 1993, 238 pages

Slavery and the Politics of Liberation 1787-1861

By Johnson U. J. Asiegbu

British Anti-Slavery Policy: The book explores the development ofBritish anti-slavery policy from 1787 to 1861, focusing on the SierraLeone settlement and the emigration of liberated Africans.

Emigration Challenges: It discusses the challenges and controversies surrounding the 'voluntary' emigration of liberated Africans under government control.

Labour Recruitment: The book examines the techniques used for labor recruitment, including the role of the Coastal Squadron and Vice-Admiralty Courts

Historical Context: It provides a detailed historical context, referencing various primary sources and documents related to the British anti-slavery movement and liberated African emigration

Africana Publishing Corporation, 1969, 231 pages

Slavers in Paradise : The Peruvian Slave Trade in Polynesia, 1862-1864

By H. E. Maude

Peruvian Slave Trade: The document details the Peruvian slave raids inPolynesia during 1862-1864, highlighting the impact on various island communities

Routes and Voyages: It describes the main routes taken by ships from Callao, Peru, to different Polynesian islands, including the Northern, Southern, and Central routes.

Polynesian Experience: The narrative includes personal accounts and the experiences of Polynesian islanders who were kidnapped or deceived into servitude.

Historical Context: The document provides a broader historical context, linking the events to the wider history of Pacific and Latin American interactions.

Stanford University Press, 1981, 244 pages

Sinews of Empire : A Short History of British Slavery

By Michael Craton

British Slave Trade: The British slave trade evolved from state-granted monopolies to free trade, with significant state involvement throughout.

African Companies: Various companies, such as the Company of Adventurers and the Royal African Company, played key roles in the trade, facing challenges from interlopers and European rivals.

Trade Goods: The trade involved a variety of goods, including textiles, metals, and liquor, which were exchanged for slaves.

Impact on Africa: The slave trade had profound effects on West African societies, including demographic changes and increased warfare.

Anchor Press, 1974, 413 pages

The Art of Riot in England and America

By Ronald Paulson

Art and Riot: The book explores the relationship between art and riot, using James Ensor's painting "The Entry of Christ into Brussels in 1889"as a model for the art of riot

Historical Context: It delves into various historical riots in England andAmerica, including the Gordon Riots and the Peterloo Massacre, and their representations in art and literature.

Literary Analysis: The book examines how riots are depicted in literature, with examples from authors like Charles Dickens, Charlotte Bronte, and John Steinbeck.

Theoretical Perspectives: It discusses the aesthetics and politics of riot, including the role of spectators and the concept of the sublime in the representation of riots.

Owlworks, 2010, 176 pages

Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa

Edited by Robert I. Rotberg

Regional Focus: The book examines governance and terrorism in theHorn of Africa and Yemen, including countries like Djibouti, Eritrea,Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Terrorism Threat: It discusses thetransnational threat of terrorisminthe region, highlighting the activities of groups like Al Qaeda and theneed for coordinated efforts to combat them.

Governance Issues: The document emphasizes the importance of good governance and political stability in reducing terrorism, suggesting that improved governance can help mitigate the threat.

U.S. Engagement: There are suggestions for more effective U.S.engagement in the region, including diplomatic, intelligence, and military initiatives to support local governments in their fight against terrorism.

World Peace Foundation Brookings Institution Press, 2005, 210 pages

Democracy and America's War on Terror

By Robert L. Ivie

Central Theme: The book critiques the rhetoric surrounding America'swar on terror, focusing on the intersection ofdemocracy, fear, andwar.

Historical Context: It draws parallels between the rhetoric used during the Vietnam War and the post-9/11 era.

Rhetorical Analysis: The author examines how democratic ideals are used to justify war and how rhetoric shapes public perception.

References: The book includes numerous references to previous works and lectures by the author, providing a comprehensive background on the topic.

University of Alabama Press, 2005, 251 pages

Global Justice

Edited by Ian Shapiro & Lea Brilmayer

Globalization and Justice: The document discusses the impact of globalization on justice, highlighting that globalization has not significantly promoted justice, especially in terms of wealth redistribution.

Cosmopolitanism vs. Nationalism: It explores the debate between cosmopolitanism, which emphasizes individual well-being and global redistribution, and nationalism, which focuses on the autonomy and interests of nation-states.

Special Responsibilities: The text examines the tension between general responsibilities to humanity and special responsibilities to specific groups, suggesting that balancing these is crucial for global justice.

Philosophical Perspectives: Various philosophical arguments are presented, including those by Brian Barry, Debra Satz, and Samuel Scheffler, each offering different views on global justice and the role ofnation-states.

NYU Press, 1999, 122 pages

God's Assassins State Terrorism In Argentina in the 1970S

By Patricia Marchak

State Terrorism in Argentina: The book explores the period of state terrorism in Argentina from 1976 to 1983, where an estimated 30,000 people disappeared, many were imprisoned illegally, and thousands went into exile.

Historical Context: It delves into the historical origins of violence in Argentina, including the rise of guerrilla organizations and the military's response, leading to widespread fear and repression.

Personal Accounts: The book includes autobiographical accounts from various individuals, providing a rich understanding of the conditions and experiences during the period of state terrorism.

Methodology: The authors used interviews and historical records toconstruct an explanation of why and how state terrorism occurred in Argentina, focusing on the experiences and perceptions of those wholived through it.

McGill-Queen's Press, 1999, 393 pages